Obligatory this-is-a-throwaway-account.
So I met my wife about 6 years ago in a video game. We lived in different countries, and after dating long distance I moved here to be with her. Total time married is about 3 years now, no children yet.
Last week, she told me that she thinks she is polyamorous, and wants to explore that facet of herself. This is defined as someone with a need for multiple romantic loving relationships, as in multiple lovers (so a level higher than an open relationship which is only physical, but lower than the level of polygamous which implies multiple life partners). She said that while I am her soul mate and primary partner, she feels that he has the capacity to love others romantically (though not to the degree she loves me). More info on it here: https://www.morethantwo.com/
She was nervous AF to tell me. She didn't know how I would react so she was anxious the whole time. I took that first conversation really well - we've briefly discussed having a third person involved with physical intimacy with the two of us at the same time, but it wasn't expected to be something either of us had alone, or even as a recurring thing. We never actually took that step but it's been out there being discussed for months now, and this line of thinking led her to this realisation. She didn't know this about herself before we were married so the timing of this isn't really her fault.
She said previously that she would probably be fine with me seeing other people romantically too, so I believe her when she says she thinks this specifically is what she is. She also said that if I were to not be OK with any of it, then she'd forget this side of her and not pursue it with resentment-free (easy for her to say that now IMO as she currently doesn't have feelings for anyone else). But I hate the thought of my wife not being able to be herself with me. I mean, what's the point of any romantic relationship if you can't do that? I want her to be herself, unrestricted so long as there is respect to my needs. To give some insight into polyamorous love, polys think of love as an infinite resource - they can love someone, and it doesn't diminish the love they have for other partners at one time, whereas monos only really have enough love for one partner at a time.
She has been honestly amazing throughout the whole discussion. She's been willing to give me complete control over her relationships and has kept saying that I have the final say on limits and boundaries - if I say I don't want her doing anything physical, then so be it. But honestly, that hasn't been enough to make me feel better since now I feel like we're incompatible on an intimate level. During the first conversation, I took it well - I was uncomfortable but I realise that she can't control who she is or her feelings anymore than I can (though we can control our actions), and if that means she's poly and i'm monogamous, then I shouldn't be angry at her.
That said, the next day all the negative feels hit. Rage, jealousy, anxiety, fear. I couldn't work, I couldn't eat, all I did was stew over the thoughts of her being romantically intimate with someone else - physically or emotionally. Had an argument (which was more just me raising my voice while I talked at her) over it where I accused her of doing this to us, and blaming her for all the pain I was feeling. I implied that because of this we might not be compatible, and she broke down in a way I have never seen. She had a panic attack and hyperventilated so badly she passed out. After talking it over with her, I apologised and said I wasn't going to leave. Next day comes again and I realise that when I talk to her, I generally feel better about us but when we try to be intimate, my mind immediately goes to her experiencing that moment with someone else. When i'm alone, I stew over it and was back to being angry - I brought it up politely and she reassured me and I felt better. Later on, it ate at me until I was being standoffish, and on being asked about it, implied again that we might not be compatible and that it might not be intentional but it was her fault. I said I feel like I can't be secure with us anymore because I can't empathise with her intimate needs anymore - I get that she could love others, but I can't, and because of that, I will never truly be able to know if what we are feeling at the same time is the same. This talk was far less emotional but much more of an argument. She said that she's been up crying all night, trying to figure this part of herself out with me being fully disclosed and having control over what she does, and that her reaction at my words were compassion-based (crying, guilt, reassurance, sacrifice) whereas mine were selfish (anger, demands, accusations).
She's completely right. I was acting that way knowing full well it wasn't her fault she's like this. She then said that we need to process this separately since she can't do it while feeling like shit because of me, so we're taking some space from one another. I pushed back later and apologised, but the damage was done.
I love my wife more than anything, and I am desperate to not lose her. I understand that a lot of my insecurities about her being with others are founded on fears about losing her for someone else, or that she'll prefer them to me. Really, those shouldn't be an issue as like I said, her love for others doesn't diminish her love for me, but right now that knowledge isn't enough to soothe my emotions. I hate the thought of being compared to (but in poly relationships that's kind of a good thing as differences between partners can be celebrated, not viewed as imperfections or failures). I don't want to be angry. I don't want to just sit on these emotions. I feel sick to my stomach. I want to be able to accept it, and i've been reading forums for advice and perspective, but I haven't yet found much that is relevant to my type of situation (married for years, then came out). I've been on monodatingpoly and it's helped but there isn't much quality there at the moment. I can't keep feeling this way but even reading forums which tell me how to process the jealousy and insecurity just make me feel angry and hurt all over again. I power through it, and sometimes it does help, but its just so fucking different to everything I thought I understood about love.
I'm trying to understand her, I cognitively understand and agree with everything around the poly culture. What i'm hoping for with this post is perspectives from some people who have experienced this, how they processed it, and what the end result was. I want to resolve my insecurities and try this but oh my fucking god this hurts so much, even when I try to logic it away without her having actually even done or felt anything with anyone else. Please help?
Forgot the TL;DR edit - wife came out wanting other romantic partners, i'm not cool with it even though she is supportive an giving me control to completely shut it down, I want to be cool with it as it's possibly a need of hers and I want some perspective as to how to process it
Next Day Edit: Holy shit most of you guys are awesome. I feel tremendously better - I think I mostly just needed to feel validated about my feelings. Felt like I was being a bad husband by not being able to accept this - I've struggled with expressing myself and being true to my feelings in the past which hampers things when we need to work issues out.
To clarify a few things: i'm 99.99% sure she isn't with someone else. She met a poly lesbian a few months ago (wife is straight) which got her thinking about whether the lifestyle could work for her.
As for her being manipulative, I don't think it was intentionally that - she seemed genuinely scared that she was going to lose me so I think it was an emotional response to tell me I could tell her to close that part of her off to make me feel more secure.
I wasn't aware that "coming out" wasn't the correct term and that it's more of a lifestyle choice than a need (a need could indicate a bigger issue and she isn't even really sure about it). Might post a follow up after we hash everything out. Thanks again!

I think we're all aware by now of the conspiracy that's building in the background of 2077. Most of us know about the mysterious Blue Eyes who appears in The Sun ending to the game. He operates as The Stinger of sorts for (that) ending of the game; He and V discuss a job vaguely alluded to through out the ending sequence and then the ending cuts to V in space charging off towards The Crystal Palace. Cue DLC Hook and credits.
But, let's go back here. This is only the tail end of the conspiracy and where it actually intersects with V's story. Blue Eyes (and some connections to him) crop up multiple times through out the game and, when pieced together, start building a larger picture that runs deeper into Night City than the pockets of most corporats.
I've finished my second playthrough of the game and I've been drafting this post as I play and find more clues. I doubt I'll find everything or might completely dismiss some, but I want to be on the front lines of uncovering this mystery, especially if this will be our Gaunter O'Dim for Cyberpunk 2077. I apologize for the length of this post ahead of time, but I need to summarize a bunch of lore and at least 4 major side-quests; "I Fought The Law", "Dream On", "Full Disclosure", and "The Prophet's Song".
Here's a long essay incoming, but I hope you chooms enjoy and I hope you read through to the end because, oh boy, I uncovered some cool shit!
So, who is Blue Eyes? Who are his contacts? What is his role in the ecosystem of this city?
"I FOUGHT THE LAW"
Let's start with where he most appears in the game; Jefferson and Elizabeth Peralez, political family in the running for Night City's first family. Which I kinda have to summarize their questlines, including the first one which Blue Eyes never appears in. But I'd prefer to go in chronological order and not jump around, so stick with me.
Elizabeth first contacts you for the job "I Fought The Law". It's fairly basic, but the quest tells us she convinced her husband to hire V to look into the recent death of Mayor Rhyne. We get a BD of a cyberpsycho attack by Peter Horvath on Mayor Rhyne. Weldon Holt leaves the room before the attack and then the security gate crashes right before Peter walks in with billions of eddies worth of chrome. The attack is unsuccessful and stopped by Detective River Ward, who was only there because Peter went missing internally at the NCPD and he knew where Peter would go.
When investigating Peter Horvath, his previous boss describes him as paranoid that "probably thought Mayor Rhyne talked to him through the TV" and that the world was out to fuck him. She then mentions that someone "finally saw what he was worth" which cues into how Peter was thrown into this attack in the first place; he had a patron who funded his chrome and the attempt on Rhyne's life. Tellingly, River than goes into a little talk about how clues rarely make sense until put into the larger context, much like we're doing right now.
V goes to the club Rhyne died in; The Red Queen's Race. V sneaks through, takes out some Animals, and can investigate what actually happened to Rhyne. If we read the emails on the office terminal, we know that Weldon Holt arranged for Rhyne to be there. He initially mentioned this to Rhyne during the first BD; Rhyne asked Holt directly to arrange his usual room at the club. So, this doesn't inherently look too suspicious on it's own, but Holt knew where Rhyne would be. We also find out via the Animals Boss there that Weldon Holt is the one who hired them to smash up the club and they're currently waiting around for payment. Further, you can go to the room Rhyne died in, find the BD headset, and put it on... which INSTANTLY knocks V out and they need to be rescued by River (who, btw, takes out any Animals on the property you didn't get to! Ty bro!). They surmise that Rhyne was killed by a virus in the headset. Lastly, we find footage of Detective Han (River's partner) covering up the death of Rhyne. They confront Han, V goes off to the Peralezs, and quest ends.
Of note, finding the BD set is a hidden dialogue option with the Peralezes suggesting, yes, that's the correct deduction to make. You don't get that option otherwise. And V never actually comes to any real conclusion to what happened to Rhyne.
So, let's summarize what we know about the death of our Mayor. Peter Horvath was hired by an unknown Patron who spent a ton of money to turn him into a suicide bomb against Rhyne. They have connections internally to the corrupt NCPD which allowed Horvath to get access to Rhyne, both from escaping NCPD custody and for the security to give him access to Rhyne's conference room. That fails so our mastermind instead assassinates Rhyne at his usual sex club, one that we know for sure Holt knew about. Rhyne is assassinated via malware in a BD porno headset, NCPD comes in an Detective Han cleans it up. Later, Holt hires the Animals to take claim to the club and fuck it up.
Holt is looking suspicious AF rn, but we also don't have any direct evidence and V says as much if you accuse him. Personally, I think it's a little too clumsy if it's him. Holt leaves the room just as an assassination attempt goes down, sets up a sex club appointment for the Mayor where he's successfully assassinated, NCPD covers it up... and then he hires a gang to cover it up more? Something doesn't fit here.
My theory is Holt is innocent. He's a scum bag, but not the culprit here. Why would you EVER give your identity to the Animals you hired to cover up an assassination? The big dumb brutes of the underworld? A name they give up with almost no fight? No, I think someone hired them under Holt's name. And I think they hired them because they KNEW the BD Headset was left behind; Han dismissed it entirely as Rhyne dying of a heart attack brought on during sex. They needed that destroyed to cover the final footprints. It's the only piece of evidence that doesn't have Holt or NCPD's name on it and doesn't fit the narrative that both are pushing. If they're covering NCPD or Holt's tracks, why not delete the emails or footage of Han? And if Holt or Han were trying to push this false narrative, why leave the headset right there the first time?
And, while I have no evidence of this assertion, the Animals are only still there because they're waiting for payment to come in... I think our employer never intended to pay them and left them in the path of V, who is likely to shoot them and tie up the loose end for our mysterious entity. Animals destroy the BD set, V shoots the animals, no trace. And, even if he doesn't, Animals will point V to the wrong person.
No, we've got a third party here. But let's continue so we can finally let our lead actor take center stage.
"DREAM ON"
"Dream On" starts when Jefferson calls V and asks them to help in another case. Long and Short; Jefferson woke up in the night and found a man in a mask (or an implant) standing over him. Jefferson shot the man, only for his head to fry and knock him out. Coming to, he's back in bed with no evidence it ever happened. SSI, their private security, insists that there was nothing on the cameras, no evidence, and nothing happened. Elizabeth claims she slept through the whole thing event.
V investigates the apartment, with Elizabeth giving the tour, and finds a lot of evidence. Elizabeth is kinda dismissive at first thinking V won't find much. First small stuff leading into larger reveals. Let's start small and work our way up.
First room Liz takes us to is the campaign room. She talks about running the campaign entirely out of pocket and having to keep most of their supplies at the Penthouse; "It's cheaper that way". You find a picture of their daughter on the wall and Liz explains that she's off at university in Europe while Jefferson is running for office; "It's easier that way" she says. That phrasing again.
EDIT: A redditor in the comments pointed out that the Peralez are being controlled via drugs in their food as part of the tech. They mention they've been eating fast food lately, explaining why Jefferson was lucid enough to catch the agent and shoot him.
V can look at Jefferson's emails (which Liz slightly discourages them, saying there's nothing there) which reveals a bit more about their campaign. There's a video of the iconic commercial and poster of Jefferson pulling out a gun and shooting a bunch of paperwork. In the email, Jefferson HATES this commercial, but his assistant, Lea Patel, insists on it as it will air in television time slots with action-drama series and catch the attention of voters. Further emails have Eric Boucher, Jefferson's Campaign Partner (Manager?), saying Jefferson has been acting unpredictably lately; presumably referencing one of the next emails. Boucher is confused because they fired Lea Patel together, only for her to continue working and sent him a new ad for approval. When emailed, Jefferson is confused about Lea being fired at all and doesn't remember the event ever happening, even telling Boucher to be honest if he has some issue with her. A final email is from SSI Chief of Security, Wallace, discussing Jefferson's intent to hire a merc to look into Rhyne's death ("Dream On") and they suggest Jefferson drop it or have NCPD or themselves look into it. Private Security just... offering to investigate the former mayor's death? Huh... sounds more like they want to squash the issue to me.
We should now talk about the Peralez's campaign. As you explore the apartment, Liz explains that they're running on a corp free campaign; they want to get Night City out of the control of the corps and do so without ever owing any favors to them. She specifically cites "Night Corp, Militech, and Petrochem" as ones they've denied. Militech and Petrochem come up a few times in other quests but Night Corp is relatively obscure. And they choose that corp to be the first one she mentions? Stands out to me. It also isn't lost on me that we're talking about running a campaign out of pocket and refusing corp assistance... while walking on the fancy ass balcony of a penthouse in Charter Hill- North Oak.
Next room, we find Jefferson's office. Elizabeth and Jefferson both graduated with law degrees from Asukaga University in Berkley. V points out it would be extremely expensive for them both, but Elizabeth says that both got full ride scholarships from the Richard Night Foundation, run by Night Corp. To further fucking cement this moment, there's a Richard Night biography shard on the desk. But we'll drop this for now because I want to get to Night Corp a bit later.
The computer on the office desk has some emails on it sent by Elizabeth. One is between her and Judy where she's asking Judy for help on the original "I Fought The Law" quest and Judy is the one who gave her your contact in the first place. Another is from their daughter kinda asserting the same thing earlier; safer for her in Europe so she's not a target on the campaign trail. And here's the interesting one; Boucher emailed Elizabeth asking why Jefferson changed his mind on Lea Patel. Elizabth says Jefferson explained it to her that it "slipped his mind" and "circumstances changed in Lea's favor" and she asks him to drop the whole thing. She's dismissive and gives extremely vague details.
Next room, Bedroom. Elziabeth's gun is on the table. It's the one Jefferson claimed he fired and scanning it tells us that it has been fired recently. We also find the wedding photo of Jefferson and Elizabeth where she fondly talks about having blue roses because she loves them so much... except the photo's roses are red and V says as much. Elizabeth quietly corrects herself that they only had red roses instead and moves on.
In the hall, we find the blood trail and gun shots in the wall; both covered up hastily. Following the trail, we enter a tv room. The Smart Glass isn't working and Elizabeth says it stopped working recently; not like they use it much anyway. Passing a Tech Check lets us try and fix it... only to be quickly blacked out by it so hard Johnny felt it too. V asks Elizabeth about it but she doesn't know what V is talking about despite having been standing right there. We also find a hidden door in the wall. Unlike earlier, Liz is actually confused by the door but demands V try and open it.
Downstairs we have the security room. Liz says that it used to be her place but "Security had to set up somewhere" and that she had to make sacrifices for this campaign; "it wasn't the first nor will it be the last". One computer has a Welcome email from SSI to new recruits. It details that they have access to all areas except Section Zero, which is reserved for Blue or Black agents and that, should the encounter a Blue or Black Agent (SPECIFICALLY "in the night"), do not interact or acknowledge them. The next email from Wallace mentions an accident where there was a "behavioral anomaly" and "ALPHA" injured a Blue Agent (BLUE-66M) who is in critical and the SSI head is requesting access to Sector Zero to give medical aid. SSI gives Wallace the code to Sector Zero and sends a team to aid. SSI knew about the accident and lied. You go to the second computer, unlock it, and can unlock the upstairs door. On that terminal is a bunch of deleted files (presumably the security footage from that night) and emails discussing "normal maintenance procedure" and further informing security that ALPHA (Jefferson) hired a merc (V) and, should security encounter them, do not interact with them.
Small thing I found interesting, a shard called "You Are What You Slot" is found down here too. It details a fictional assassin who kills and then steals the identity of her victims. Small and doesn't mean much on it's own, but the shards are hinting at the story here; one of false identities and manipulation.
Now, let's get to the main event; the secret room. Inside is a control center. Elizabeth is horrified and feels violated. She shouts that she's not letting SSI anywhere near them, only for her head to start hurting and she tells V to do what he needs to do. She leaves him. Inside the control room is a box of bloody medical supplies. The computer discusses "behavioral norms" for ALPHA (Jefferson) and suggests amplifying "neural dampening". It discusses things similar to Wallace's terminal, but from the other side; ALPHA is displaying odd behavior by hiring a merc, the SSI teams avoided meeting the merc, and then the actual accident that occurred injuring BLUE-66M during regular 'maintenance'. The other side of the room also has another data shard, "Rewriting Synaptic Pathways", basically talking about using tech to rewire the brain a bit.
Following some wires from the control room to the roof, we find a signal dish. Johnny (replacing Elizabeth for conversation now that she's gone), joins in that the tech looks prehistoric but functional and that Militech used it in the war; it requires line of sight to transmit data but otherwise can't be intercepted. We can see the tower and go to investigate. V tells Liz the whole deal; V can suggest that the Van near the tower could be SSIs or that it might not be due to unconventional tech. Liz then itterates twice that it's a stressful campaign time for Jefferson and V should talk to her, NOT him. "Sure, whatever" V and the player dismiss.
(I SWEAR WE'RE ALMOST DONE WITH THE SUMMARIZING FOR DREAM ON, I'M SO SORRY.)
We drive after the van, Johnny is suddenly excited for smashing a corpo conspiracy and iterates that citizens do not choose their representatives, instead they're chosen by "key players" who watch the Peralezes for weaknesses or blackmail material. We arrive at the facility patrolled by Maelstrom and the occupants of our van park, get out, and climb ladders to the roof where they get into an AV that is cloaked to be near invisible (as shown in a couple of vids on YouTube and this subreddit).
At the place, Maelstom is explained; "UNKNOWN USER" contacted them while driving the van for protection to take care of V and then destroy the van. Van's data makes it pretty clear; the Peralezs' minds are being manipulated, new neural pathways are being created, and their memories are being created, changed, or erased. There are also a couple of other names of other test subjects. The data is then erased. We do see an almost flower like symbol before the data is destroyed.
The agents on the cloaked AV CAN be killed and do drop a shard, thought it doesn’t have many more details, merely that they’re contacting HQ to arrange extraction and that the Van’s data should be destroyed and echoing the arrangement with Maelstrom mentioned earlier in their shards.
V calls Liz, Liz wants to meet in person instead of over holo and send him to a Japantown Raman shop (same one that used to be Rainbow Cadenza, coincidentally). Odd choice for an upstanding congresswoman. She says her nerves are shot, the ramen shop is a quieter place to meet than the apartment, and she needs a moment to gather herself since she last saw V, with V even asking if something has happened since they last saw each other. Of note, Liz is stress smoking the entire scene, something she hasn't done until now. She then explains, no, it's been over a longer period of time. She's been watching her husband change and act differently for awhile; he stopped reading, his taste changed, and he even insisted he was an only child and never had a bother when Liz asks about visiting the grave. Of note, yes, Antonio Peralez has a Columbarium Vault, which proves Liz is correct on this. She confesses that she herself has been told by others she's been acting strangely. V says she knew what V would find and she asserts that she doesn't know the who, how, or why, but "they're changing us". Jefferson apparently went on in great detail about a trip she swears they never went on, but she doesn't know if the vacation is a fake memory or if she's the one that doesn't remember.
She saw a stranger in their apartment tinkering with a monitor, only for him to be missing when it was reported to SSI and they looked at the feeds. The next day, she got a phone call from a stranger (whom she refers to by "he") saying that she's walking on thin ice and Jefferson could have an accident. They later erased all data that the phone call had happened. Elizabeth claims she's terrified for herself and her husband's safety and doesn't want V to reveal the truth. V points out "they" could be telling her to say that but it doesn't really change how she feels since she just wants Jefferson to be safe. She tells V to tell Jefferson it was SSI spying for Holt. She asserts she wants SSI out of her roof if they're spying on their sleep. She will take responsibility for firing SSI, but wants Jefferson to be safe and out of that fight. She adds a meeting with Jefferson to his calendar at Reconciliation Park. But, ultimately it's V's choice (especially since she has no idea if she'll remember the conversation) and leaves. Johnny jumps and and talks and mentions that there were talks like this back in his day and worrying about the damage a puppet mayor could do.
V heads to Reconciliation Park to meet with Jefferson. Entering, V is called by an Unknown Number which blacks out V's optics. They claim to know who V is, *what* V is, and what V wants. It doesn't matter what V tells Jefferson, but "don't dare cross that line" and "you're playing with fire". Its a garbled male robo voice, so safe to say it's irrelevant to the owner.
Enter Stage Right, our missing lead; Mr. Blue Eyes. He is standing on a balcony watching the place where we meet Jefferson. In the Scanner, he is labeled "Mr. Blue Eyes", has no known affiliation, is wanted for "SC 370", and is wanted for "Classified". His eyes are electronically glowing blue you can even see from several yards away. You cannot injure him as grenades do nothing and you can't aim at him. Of small note, and I don't know if this ACTUALLY means anything, but his hair style asset is referred to as Morgan Blackhand in the files, but could mean nothing if this hair is actually used by other NPCs. MOST LIKELY THIS IS NOTHING UNLESS SOMEONE HAS FURTHER INFO.
(Plot twist: It meant something. But we'll get there.)
V sits with Jefferson and can reveal the truth; "SSI is on the take from an unknown group to control your lives". V can even point out the absurdity of Peralez being as successful of a politician as he is without any corp sponsors. "They want you to be *their* mayor. Molding you like clay". You can tell Jefferson how to proceed and additional details, but it doesn't matter. Later, Jefferson will send a text and delete your number and so will Elizabeth, who will call you out for telling Jeff. In the end credits voicemails, Jefferson has decended into paranoia about some vitamins Liz gave him which he didn't trust so he sent them to the lab, only to then not trust the lab results saying they're fine. Jefferson Peralez is confirmed the new mayor during Late Act 2 and the major difference is his state of mind at the end game; either hiring V to be on his security staff or descending into absolute paranoia over everything in his life.
Lastly, Johnny appears and cryptically talks about back in his day when they'd talk about rogue AIs. Personally... I kinda completely dismiss this? It comes out of nowhere, Johnny cites NOTHING for why he'd bring this up in relation to the case, and I can't fathom a motive. I’d also point out that this isn’t the only time Johnny is outright wrong. In fact, he’s wrong A LOT in the game. For example, he criticizes V for listening to the Netwatch Agent and that he’s bullshitting you. Except, the agent is 100% correct that VDB did spike V as a suicide virus and Johnny is actually wrong. He also claims he doesn’t know what happened with Thompson after Never Fade Away, but this is a lie because Thompson is flying the AV Johnny takes to Arasaka in 2023. The only connection I can find is "Who is controlling Blue-Eyes" which might make Johnny correct, if just not in the way 'Rogue AIs' initially implies.
So, what actually has happened?
The Peralez family has been molded for a very long time into being the perfect political couple. They got scholarships from the Night Foundation for two fancy law degrees, have successful political careers, and Jefferson is running for Mayor on an anti-corp platform, an insanity for Night City. And he's actually successful at it. During a maintenance service at night on the Peralez's apartment, Jefferson woke up and shot an SSI/Unknown agent making repairs. The Control Booth knocked Jefferson out and they pulled the agent out of the apartment into the secret room. SSI put the Peralezes back into bed and hastily cleaned up everything, but the damage was done and Peralez hired V who uncovered mostly everything.
Elizabeth seems to be initially very upset by the discovery, but wants V off the trail when we meet her next. However, she's not in on it as she's equally a victim to the brainwashing/gaslighting and that's for certain. I think she's a pawn who is either too scared or too programmed to break the rules of movement on this chessboard. It's worth noting that, while the unknown entity threatens Jefferson's life and V's well being, they do not make due on either of these threats. I call their bluff. They have put too much work into Jefferson to abandon or kill him.
But, where else have we heard of this gaslighting brainwash process before?
"FULL DISCLOSURE"
Ok, we're on the shorter end so I don't have to actually explain this quest in full. Sandra Dorsett is a netrunner and a very skilled on at that, actually collecting data from Night Corp. She was kidnapped by the savs we rescued her from at the beginning of the game shortly AFTER she stole this data, suggesting Night Corp was behind it. This data is on the shard she asks you to collect during the aforementioned quest. V has full ability to NOT read it, but let's look at it; "Operation Carpe Noctem" ("Seize The Night" in Latin)
Described in it is an experiment on Night Corp's own employees where they are quietly brainwashing them and getting them to do whatever they want. They specifically cite an empathetic and calm employee who they got to fight a co-worker and then jump from a 16th floor window. The shard ends on mentioning that they're ready to install CN-07 on "our actual target".
I think multiple quests discussing brainwashing and gaslighting is too coincidental to be utterly unrelated to each other. I think Night Corp's actual target mentioned here is Peralez.
So, what is Night Corp?
Night Corp is the most mysterious of the corps in Night City. It currently operates to better Night City via philanthropic ventures, fundraising, community support, and city infrastructure. Basically, while Militech and Arasaka and the others operate in the city, Night Corp basically RUNS the actual city. They're also noteworthy for the level of security they have that even the best netrunners can't get much from them and, since they keep to themselves and seemingly just do city infrastructure stuff, no one really super bothers them. It has been run by Miriam Night, wife of late-Richard Night, until recently and we currently don’t actually know who runs NightCorp.
Originally, they were the Night Foundation, but that requires explaining Richard Night... oh boy, Lore Drop. I'll make it quick as possible.
Richard Night is the founder of Night City. He started as a partner of a firm, but his ambitions grew beyond that to founding "Night International" to build his dream; a city that would be so grand it would make all other cities pale by comparison, Coronado City. A capitalist mecha of opportunity, Night City would be run by corporations and have next to no anti-business policies on the books. Arasaka, EMB, and Petrochem were his first backers and he came into claim of land on the central-California coast; Del Coronado Bay and Morro Bay would be the location of his dream city.
(BTW, irl, Morro Bay, California is a real place. Been there, have family there, go there regularly, kinda cool!).
Despite being a capitalist mecca city and run by corps, Richard Night also dreamed it to be "A sprawling metropolis, free of crime, of poverty, of debt. A place where people could live safely, peacefully, without having to worry about the dire situations that were growing around the world at the time".
However, due to the design plans, Night didn't employ local contractors and instead got expensive architects and builders from all over the world. Local builders didn't like that, they had mob connections, bloodshed started. And soon Richard Night was murdered by an unknown assassin, presumably a mob hitman. The city was renamed Night City in his honor and his dream utopia became to embody everything that was destroying the world. Mob took control and corps didn't give a fuck since it didn't hurt them any until they eventually had to take out the mob gangs, but not in any favor to Night’s dream either.
Miriam Night, Richard's Widow, founded the Night Foundation (later Night Corp) to stick to Richard's Ideal dreams of what he wanted the city to be. They invest heavily in ecological research, alt power sources, civic infrastructure, public works, and charities and scholarships for Night City youth. "They've even managed to stay out of the normal corporate power struggles which tend to plague every other corporation, both inside the city and out. Even the shadowy corporate rumors about them, like having underwater bases in the bay or access to orbital satellites, remain unsubstantiated despite extensive investigation."
So, where does this put us now? We have ONE last quest...
"THE PROPHET'S SONG"
Garry The Prophet is our local crazy man. He spouts off insanities to anyone who will listen near Misty's Esoterica in Kabuki. However, some of his ideas aren't quite as much off the mark as one might think. There ain't no technonecromancers from Alpha Centuri (or Spanish Inquisition) nor is Saburo Arasaka an immortal vampire, but he was correct that Saburo wasn't dead and in fact immortal; via Mikoshi and The Relic.
He send you on a quest to investigate a meeting; he says that his ripper mistuned some cyberware in his head and he can hear their communications. You show up to a meeting between corps and Maelstrom. They say some nonsense phrases and transfer a data shard. Reading it ("Destroy After Reading") it seems like nonsense. But does include the line "The cages of men melt as night descends". You can decode it via a Null Cipher; first letter of every line: “Project Oracle Command Execute Plans”.
We don’t know what Project Oracle is. In real life, secret project or operation names actually tend to be chosen at random and are unrelated to the actual project (you can google funny stories about names that ended up awkward to the actual project), so this could mean nothing. But, narratives tend to give meaning to everything. Oracles are mythical in references and could predict the future or see the unseen. Perhaps perfect prediction via behind the scenes manipulations? Not sure we’ll get answers on this one for now.
Going back to Garry, he's been kidnapped. His protoge is screaming he's been kidnapped "Black suits came by - blue eyes and all". Blue Eyes huh? Further, she claims that they threw him into an invisible AV... Huh, like the one we saw back during "Dream On"? "Night's comin... The eternal night"
So, it’s time to jump us to the final step in our Fool’s Journey: The Sun.
“THE SUN”
The Sun ending has V wake up in their new penthouse apartment (with their love interest if they have one). Checking the computer, we see emails from our dear Mr. Blue Eyes. He wants an answer from V as to the job to the Crystal Palace he has planned and that they’re on a tight schedule for “obvious reasons”. We meet with him at the Afterlife and he talks about the job; Casino security is going into maintenance and V mentions giving him the casino client list. V also asks him to “hold up your end of the bargain”. They never discuss eddies or payment. It’s all in such vague terms. “Your end” or “Obvious reasons”. Smaller point but an email from Vik on the space shuttle also tells us that he’s asked around about Blue Eyes and has nothing; either he works with people WAY above Vik’s paygrade or he’s shady as hell… or both.
I think Blue Eyes knows V is dying (the obvious reasons) and I think the unspecified payment is V’s survival. V always says that they want to come back to their love interest so it’s not a mindless suicide run and I don’t think V would risk it all for nothing but eddies; especially not after Reaper (both versions) paint suicide runs as a horrible terrible thing. To then glorify it in another ending… no, the game is smarter than that.
Your love interest doesn’t seem to be too upset about the situation either. Panam and Judy leave V in The Sun due to their lives taking different directions, but it seems mostly amicable and understanding. They even express desire to see V again because they know V needs to do this job. Kerry, who stays with V in The Sun and expresses worry and also a desire to settle down with V, also seems mostly understanding that V needs to go on this quest. I don’t think they’d be so calm and loving and understanding if this were a suicide run. They know more than the player does.
Further, I think Blue Eyes isn’t after the casino aspect of the Crystal Palace at all. While that’s the major commercial aspect of the station as marketed to the citizen world, the station also has embassies from every nation on earth, facilities from all the major corporations, and is pretty much THE place where all the dark corporate espionage goes down. There’s so much more to this location than ‘casino resort’. *EVERY* corp has space stations and hideaways in space because the Crystal Palace offers it’s own legalities and opportunities that are not allowed within Earth’s terms and conditions. If they want to do some research that would be frowned upon elsewhere and get up to some Top Secret shit, it’ll be in outer space. Night City is controlled by corps and has lax laws, but outer space’s are even more so.
I think the cure V wants is not only on the station, I think it’s what Blue Eyes himself is after, but I’ll get there when it’s time to theory craft about the future.
I think it’s worth noting; Blue Eyes IS IN THE TRAILER FOR THE GAME. Yeah, anyone remember that shot on a shuttle with a guy being burned out from the inside? Yeah, he’s there. In the foreground. *Smirking*. The shuttle also seems like they’re in space.
These events leading to the Crystal Palace and the conspiracy with Blue Eyes are blatant DLC Hooks for the future and suggest a post-game DLC. This isn’t the first CDPR has done so either; Blood and Wine takes place after the story of Witcher 3 and is explicitly incompatible with the worst endings of that game. I think, conceivably, other endings where V is still alive could be roped into this adventure; Blue Eyes merely needs to hire them with the same offer of survival. While The Star takes V to Arizona and away from Night City, I think that choice of location is appropriate as, to even get to space for The Crystal Palace, citizens go from LAX to Arizona for a space port to launch them off Earth’s surface. They could have chosen anywhere else to send Panam and V, but they choose Arizona, huh. I do think Reaper, Temperance, and Devil will be locked out of this future, however, as all make any point of Blue Eyes hiring V irrelevant; there’s no V left to hire/save. MAYBE a rejected Devil ending, but I wouldn’t blame them for not continuing that conclusion either as Devil is one of the bad endings.
So, it’s finally time to really compile a lot of this information into where I think this is going in the next comment below

Around October 2019, I had one of those rare online discourses that actually stuck with me. I remember it vividly because I did it while bored in an apartment room during a massive work trip along the east coast of Queensland (I’d also ironically interviewed remotely for the job I currently have). In the 5e subreddit, I was discussing with someone who said they felt magic in PF2e was weak. It was a mostly cordial discussion with some good back and forth, but there's a moment and subsequent discussion that stood out to me.
At one point, we were discussing how magic in 2e is balanced. I explained my reason for why I supported the way it is: because if magic eventually overtakes martial characters as the primary driving force in the gameplay, those martial characters no longer have a reason to be there. I said if you believe the way magic is balanced in systems like DnD 3.5 or 5e is good, then you're essentially saying you think magic should be more powerful and purposely eclipse the mundane and martial fighters.
They started their response to that with a blunt 'well…yeah, it should.'
I would be lying if I said such a blatant admission didn't take me aback. I was used to people defending magic in other d20 systems with some bad-faith cop-outs like 'martials technically deal more damage' or 'it only matters if you powergame' or 'other characters can still be useful'. But this was the first time I'd ever seen someone outright say yup, it just should be better on principle, no ifs or buts.
They explained that the whole point of magic is that it's supposed to be better than the mundane. It's very nature is extraordinary and supposed to eclipse that of which is possible to do with physical means. They believed the power curve of older editions made sense; that martial prowess was more expedient and magic started off weak because it required more training and study, but that magic should eventually eclipse martial powers because the reward for riding out that initial lack of power is far greater.
It was an interesting debate that I really enjoyed despite our differences of opinion. When discussing martial classes and how players could justify falling back on them despite being weaker than spellcasters, the other user agreed there was a discrepancy, but said it was more a result of d20 games becoming this general pop culture amalgam than any design issue. Barbarians want their Conan fantasy and rogues with their Assassin's Creed or Han Solo fantasy, but even in those respective settings, magic was seen as a tool used by the mighty and sought after specifically because it was all-powerful. Those characters’ mundaneness in the face of that power was the point of those narratives. You can't reconcile those thematics from a game balance perspective in a system that lets the good guys have magic as well; you can play Han, but Luke will always be more powerful and ultimately significant because he has the Force at his command. Link will always be the valiant warrior leading the charge against Ganon, but the legend is ultimately about Zelda because she has the magic that seals away the evil; Link is just the vanguard to save or protect her while she does. Martials just have to accept they'll still be better than the average person, but never have the raw, reality-bending power of spell casters.
And thus we came full circle back to 2e, where the user I was discussing with said even if magic is the most balanced it's ever been in a d20 system, it was ultimately a flaw because it doesn't feel good, because magic needs to be all-powerful to fulfil its purpose. What's the point of learning baleful polymorph if it only transforms the weakest of foes you could just kill with a sword? What's the point of scaling successes if most of the time they get the success effect and get slowed for only one turn instead of one minute? And even if it's still technically helpful, what's so great about a +1 modifier to all rolls when you could get a full-fledged advantage roll instead?
Of Balance and Fun
This has been a topic I've been wanting to tackle for a while, because as someone with a hobbyist-level interest in design ^{(and a forever GM}), game balance is a big topic of interest for me, and 2e - being one of my favourite d20 systems - has had a...contentious consensus on its very carefully balanced design, especially in regards to how it’s handled magic and spellcasting classes.
So to begin, let’s talk about...well, the basics of design. I've always considered the trinity of gameplay, balance, and aesthetics to be the holy grail of character and class based games. To clarify my definitions:

• Gameplay is the hard, crunchy systems of the game; it's mechanical focuses and loops, and of course, whether it's enjoyable to the player
• Balance is how viable each option is; whether there's good roles or niches for each character or class to fill without being too overshadowed or lacking compared to others (and in some extreme cases, whether overpowered elements are toxic to the game’s enjoyment)
• Aesthetics are the thematic elements of the class; what that character or class is in the world of the game, and how that flavour ties to the above mechanics. I've borrowed the term 'class fantasy' from Blizzard to talk about it in terms of RPG classes.

Any discrepancy in this trinity causes lack of satisfaction. Bad gameplay is obviously the key bane and the chief concern, but being able to both have mechanical balance and let all class fantasies work in the context of those mechanics is important. After all, I think most gamers these days have had a moment they realise a class or character they’ve invested in is not considered optimal or viable, and they have to make a choice to either continue playing sub-optimally, or shelve that fantasy to play a more effective option.
That said, balance alone does not automatically equal fun; pulling down a powerful option to make others strong doesn’t necessarily make a game more enjoyable. If anything, it will often bring down what enjoyable elements exist in a game for an almost bureaucratic conception of fairness.
One of my favourite videos on the subject of game balance talks about the issues of designing around balance at the expense of fun. If you haven’t seen this video yet, I suggest you watch it; it’s an amazing analysis that breaks down the fine dance between making compelling and fun gameplay, while also not letting metas stagnate into dull experiences for players and viewers alike. It focuses primarily on fighting games, but in many ways, its analysis of high-intensity staples of the genre such as Street Fighter II Hyper Fighting and the MvC series can draw parallels to the insane power caps and system mastery reward of TTRPG systems such as DnD 3.5/PF1e.
The video draws a fairly logical conclusion; people find powerful options fun, and the more options you have, the greater your toolbox to solve challenges when they arise. So combine power + options, and you have a recipe for what’s both a deep and satisfying gaming experience. And as the video title suggests, if a playable option isn’t holding up, the solution isn’t to ruin the fun of the people enjoying the successful options; it’s to improve those weaker ones and bring them up to the same level. Nerfs that need to be applied should be done only when those powerful options and strategies have made the meta toxic and/or unfun (like Bayonetta made Smash 4, or the basketball example for why they introduced the shot clock), or minor tweaks that actually enable interesting and/or expressive gameplay (like the example they gave about Ryu's heavy Shoryuken in SFIV, and the 3-point line in basketball).
But that’s exactly the opposite of what Paizo did with 2e: they nerfed spellcasters, not with targeted finesse, but wholesale and across the board. Yes, they buffed martials too, but nerfing spellcasters has set the precedent for the overall gameplay tone of the system far more than anything else as far as class design goes.
So the question stands: if it’s better to buff than nerf, did Paizo fuck up by bringing the power level of spellcasters down? Have they sacrificed fun upon the altar of balance?
Of Wizards and Warriors
This seems to be the idea a lot of people have when it comes to spellcasting in 2e. Some people accuse spellcasting of being 'weak' in this edition. Bluntly, it's not true; I won't spend too much time discussing it because regular forum-goers know the dot points, but the TL;DR is magic is overall less powerful than previous d20 systems, though ultimately still useful. Spellcasting classes are generally best as buffers, debuffers, and utility. Damage is possible, but much less consistent than martials, with casters generally being better at AOE and having easier access to energy damage to exploit weaknesses. Scaling successes mean you have a wide berth to have results, but enemy saving throws will consistently scale with player levels, making it easier for them to get the better end of those saves than in other editions, particularly in higher end/boss encounters.
So anyone who's extensively played the game and is looking with an objective eye will tell you that spellcasting is perfectly fine as far as viability. If anything, it's the most balanced it's ever been in a d20 system.
But as we've established, balance =/= fun, at least as a default. There are some salty sammies that say they don't agree casters are balanced, but digging into their wants leads ultimately to the desire for a 3.5/1e level of power, wanting to be a damage carry over a team player, or even that they agree it's balanced but it doesn't feel fun. Just because it's balanced logically and numerically doesn't automatically appeal to the pathos; if anything, logos and pathos are often at odds with one-another, appealing to different situations between different people.
So that raises the question: what exactly is it that people want from spellcasters, both as a character fantasy and mechanically? Are they fine with spellcasting being on par with martials, but just don't like the specifics of 2e's design? Is their fantasy about being that all-powerful reality bender, thus being mutually incompatible with that idea of balance?
Or is it possible there is a dissonance between what players want…and what they think they want? Do players think they want a d20 fantasy system with martial and magic options balanced, but in truth their disdain towards 2e’s design is because their internal bias leans more towards the idea of magic being innately superior, much as my fellow Redditor I was discussing with?
Pathfinder 2e has been one of the most interesting, albeit unintentional social experiments in tabletop gaming. For decades now, the concept of Linear Warriors, Quadratic Wizards has been seen as a sore spot in a lot of RPG systems, both digital and tabletop; the idea of physical fighters starting strong and progressing moderately, but will eventually be overtaken by magic users, who will start weak but eventually eclipse other classes in raw power.
But for all the talk about spellcasters eclipsing martials, there's always been this underlying implication that it's a bad thing; that it's a failure of game design to balance magic against martials and the mundane. In reality though, trends seem to favour the opposite; people love using magic as an expedient method of solving problems, far more effective than combat or skill checks if possible. Powergamers froth over the idea of magic being able to break the game in stupidly powerful ways; there's a reason 3.5/1e is still held in high esteem for d20 system mastery. And then there are people like my friend at the start who just believe even outside of mechanical reasons, it makes more sense thematically to make magic more powerful because it should be in principle; that it feels right for it to be.
Combine that with people who struggle to find martials engaging in any way more than being attack bots (loathe as I am to open that can of worms, one of the common points brought up during discussions of those recent, contentious videos was how martials are notoriously difficult to create interesting design space around in d20 systems), and it begins to make sense why some people resent the design decisions Paizo made in regards to 2e.
But coming back to the original question I had - did Paizo make bad decisions with 2e's game design? - I think it’s reductive to suggest they made a mis-step and that they didn’t think about the design implications of their decisions. If anything, there is a very clear-cut appeal and design goal for why not only they made magic weaker, but implemented systems like their encounter design budget, level based proficiency, and DC scaling:
To enable challenge.
Giving Sauron the Death Star
The problem with an uncapped system is that it trivialises any challenge you find. High level 3.5/1e games famously break under the strain of spellcasting potential, turning the game less into a series of challenges you need to overcome and more a sandbox for which your demi-deific wizard treats serious, life-threatening choices with the gusto that most of us reserve for when we're deciding what to eat for lunch. Even 5e, while less offensive in the Linear Warriors/Quadratic Wizards divide, still struggles to present a long term challenge, as the balance is inherently weighed in favour of the players, and that bias only gets stronger as they level up. This is less a spellcasting exclusive problem as much as a general one with the system, but the game still favours magic that hard disables or instantly solves problems over raw damage and skill checks once it passes a certain point. Sure, the rogue can lockpick a gate, but why bother when the wizard has Knock or a teleportation spell prepared?
As the writing convention goes, if you give Frodo a lightsaber, you have to give Sauron a Death Star. The problem is that convention breaks down if Gandalf is there and he is able to just cast a single save-or-suck spell that banishes the Death Star.
Paizo have not nerfed magic because they hate spellcasters or have some rigid idea of balance = fun. It's because they realised as long as magic exists in the way it has in other editions, the game will always be in a state where challenges will eventually become trivialised by raw power. Sure, poorly balanced martials and skill monkeys will trivialise combat and skill checks respectively, but never in the same all-encompassing way magic can, and magic will always step on their niches more than they'll step on magic's. The result is…well, Angel Summoner and BMX Bandit. It makes sense why they targeted magic specifically, and so strongly.
^{(I also feel there’s a joke somewhere in there about the strength of summon spells in 2e})
The BIG question, of course, is if this is what players actually want? A power-capped game that presents forced challenge?
I'd say for me, it is. As a GM, I love that challenges can be scaled to any level and still present a genuine obstacle to my players. I love how traits like incapacitation mean players actually have to face powerful threats instead of insta-winning with a save-or-suck spell, with scaling successes a more elegant solution than something clunky and blunt like legendary resistances in 5e. And as a player, I like the cerebral challenge of picking which spells to use against certain foes, analysing them to figure out their weak saves and how I can exploit them. I tire of how binary and absolute my wizard is in 5e, and actually wish I could have the 2e experience without the hard fallback of save or suck to guarantee expedient victory.
But for a lot of players, that understandably isn’t what they want. To many, the thrill of casting a paralyse or banish or polymorph or force cage to disable a powerful foe like a dragon or fiend is the whole reason they play spellcasters. The one-sided brokenness of spells isn't a bug, it's a feature. Whether the appeal comes from the mechanical satisfaction, the fantasy of being an all powerful spellcaster, or a combination, it's in these instances when 2e's design is mutually incompatible with those wants.
I think this is the key thing to consider when discussing magic in 2e are these points. Paizo doesn't hate magic and they don't seek to create a sterilised, bureaucratic idea of balance for its own sake. It's about creating a system with engaging gameplay that's tightly power capped, to avoid escalation beyond the GM and narrative's potential to challenge. Magic was simply the biggest offender of this in older editions, and thus the most obvious target to change the precedent.
This obviously won't be for everyone. And it doesn't mean the system is beyond criticism within the scope of that intended design. More nuanced points can be understandable; for example, I personally think there is room to give single target blaster casters more spells and utility to help with that focus for players who want that without necessarily stepping on martial characters’ toes. I also think there's a fair criticism in how spell attack rolls are less accurate than martial attack rolls, while rarely getting the full benefits of scaling successes other spells do.
But it's important to keep in mind the design goals. A lot of people will say spellcasting feels weak, but as discussed, there is a lot of bias towards the idea of people conceiving spellcasting as being innately more powerful than other options, be it consciously or subconsciously. I think it's important to acknowledge and address those biases when discussing magic, lest we end up being out of sync with the intended design. Whether than intended design is good or preferential is a matter unto itself, but at least understanding it and not just assuming Paizo is incompetent or spiteful doesn't help, which is the conclusion I see a lot of in these discussions surrounding magic in 2e.
In Conclusion (Don't worry, I'm almost done)
With Secrets of Magic coming out later this year, I'm curious to see if Paizo will be implementing new or alternate systems that shake up the base design. They've made it clear CRB, APG, and the first 3 bestiaries are their 'core' line that make up the bulk of the system's chassis, so I'm personally anticipating they'll use books like SoM to grant variant or alternate systems for people who want those higher magic experiences. But we'll get to that chestnut when it rolls around.
Either way, I think it has been interesting over the game's year and a half of being released how people have reacted to the idea of a system where martials and magic are the most balanced they've ever been. If nothing else, even if elements like this end up being a long term death knell for 2e (which I don’t think they will, but who knows how the system’s popularity will play out?), it raises some interesting points about how people perceive these ideas both mechanically and thematically. If magic truly is supposed to be superior to the mundane and can't be reconciled mechanically without being unappealing, perhaps that says something about the current class design of d20 systems? Do martials need to be more magical to remain viable? Is magic the inevitable design endpoint of all high fantasy-inspired gaming systems?
I don't know if it's that absolute, but it's interesting food for thought.
TLDR; no you're not getting one, read the whole thread you lazy fucks, also Paizano if you see this give magus the option for a floating weapon panoply because that would be cool AF.

Every time I see another pump article on the “next Chinese Tesla” because deliveries, I get triggered and have to put on chilled cow on spotify for 3 hours. Although entertaining, “NIO is going to squeeze like GME, all aboard!” comments on stocktwits is making my testicles feel like tiny furrowed cerebrums and not because it’s cold AF outside.
So I had to put together some pleb research on TSLA, NIO, XPENG & LI for you to scoff at. This is NOT financial advice, I just don’t like these stocks.
1. Positions
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I know my lazy ass needs to switch
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A few more 2023s, I just went sniping randomly today. Full disclosure, I also hold and sell CCs on my Tesla shares, so this play doubles as somewhat of a hedge for me. Sorry, not up to YOLO standards, I'm a lil biatch.
2. The Chosen Ones: NIO & XPENG
Did you ever look at TSLA and think, god damn that shit is overpriced? Then look at the price to sales and realize, holy fuck it is? Then looked at it a month later and the price doubled? Well guess what, NIO and XPENG are trading even higher than TSLA.
Current PS as of 2/10/2021
- TSLA: ~25
- NIO: ~40
- XPENG: ~41
- LI: ~19 (It’s because their flagship SUV is hybrid electric +ICE, insane PS reserved for pure bloods only)
Let’s compare. These guys aren't coding the next Gran Turismo 8, but let’s look at high margin tech anyways.

• NFLX: ~10
• ABNB: ~28
• PLTR: ~72 (peter pan stock)

Actual automotives, old, unsexy, fell from grace, like your grandma’s teets
- TM: ~0.8
- F: ~0.4
- VWAGY: ~0.5
I did some monkey spreadsheet math to forecast their updated TTM Revs after Q1. Don’t ask me how I did that, the answer either won’t impress you, or straight up glide over your smooth brain and I need you to focus on what’s important right now.
Q1 2021 PS if MC doesn’t change
- TSLA: ~22
- NIO: ~29
- XPENG: ~26
- LI: ~14
Yep, still overvalued AF. Before we get into the nuts and butts, there is always the risk (lotto upside in our case) that macros choke and correct >20% because of some black swan (I mean it’s 2020s, Murphy has been trying to prove a point). When this happens, we know what gets hit hardest, the ones with the high forwarding looking, rosy multiples. These EV stocks will get beat up worse than that washed up highschool varsity prom king’s girlfriend.
Some other lotto events include China stocks being delisted, and who can forget the audit risk on those poorly cooked books, but enough to win the Great Chinese Bake Off.
Can they grow Revenues though? Let's look.
3. Revenue Growth Stunted
You might be one of those Stocktwats and you’re thinking; “but but... they’ll ramp deliveries exponentially and grow Revenues just like TSLA did back in 2018!” *Smacks you in the face*, no they won’t and here is why.
Chinese people love brand name shit. I repeat, Chinese people love brand name shit. Quantitatively, go look at LVMH sales in China. The figures on Chinese tourists going on vacation, spending without looking at the price tag (naw they definitely check for them deals) is incredible. They’re not there to look at some antiquated tower (way better architecture back home), they tryin to get those furry Gucci Slips on discount (they are ugly AF btw). Tesla is no different, people worship Musk over there. You could probably sell his panties online, and some Chinese billionaire will pay millions for it, just like they did for his Gene Wilder house in LA. Qualitatively, I called my cousins in China, confirmed, he couldn’t stop jizzing at the slight mention of Tesla.
Why does this matter? Owning a TSLA is like owning any other brand name shit in China, social status. Social status is EVERYTHING to much more of the population in China vs. RoW. The biggest difference is, you’re not going to be able to buy a knock-off TSLA in some shady, cigarette smoking thug’s closet on the 2nd floor of a Chinese dumpling street stand.
TSLA just ramped the Model Y in China and started deliveries in Jan. That shit sold out in a matter of days. If you’re not buying one, you basically have to settle for an uglier wife (this is probably not much of an exaggeration). Well guess who has been selling mostly midsize SUVs without much competition from TSLA and achieving recording breaking deliveries up until now?
NIO: 100% SUVs
Xpeng: 40% SUVs
Brand aside, some triggered specs nerd out there is thinking “Well, ultimately people will decide based on specs and value, not brand alone.” Fine, let’s take a look at what aspects of an EV people care about.
Let’s break it down apples to apples for these SUV EVsTesla Model Y- Price: ~$52,800
- Range: 594 km (Kilometers for the apes)
- 0-100km Acceleration: 5.1s
- Charger network: 20,000+
NIO EC6
- Price: ~$57,200
- Range: 430 km (605 if you pay ~$9k for a bigger battery)
- 0-100km Acceleration: 5.4s
- Charger network: 290+
Xpeng G3 520
- Price: ~$30,580
- Range: 520 km
- 0-100km Acceleration: 8.6s
- Charger network: 866+
You may be thinking the G3 520’s price tag is looking pretty attractive. Then you imagine the future wife you’ll be banging, yeah, trade up for that Tesla boi.
“But JJ, NIO has battery swap tech! It’s perfect for China’s dense cities!” If you know anything about product market fit, battery swapping for EVs is like trying to bang a gerbil's anus. First of all, battery swap stations are way more expensive to build, stock and maintain. Crazy upfront build out costs and battery requirements kill your rate of expansion (shit is important for demand). Tesla superchargers are spreading like wildfire and become recurring revenue generators over time, while battery swap stations stay cost centers over time, breakeven at best. That’s why NIO tries to charge a $150 subscription fee, I’d rather get pornhub subs for the whole family. Oh btw, you can’t even do it yourself, you have to give it to a service technician to do the swapping for you. Be realistic, these wealthy, classist Chinese dirtbags (I’m Chinese and know some first hand) don’t want some lowlife service tech to sit on their mothball leather.
Back to battery swapping and product market fit. Look, Tesla tried this in 2013, decided it was dumb, abandoned it and decided to make charging super fast and let you watch the actual Great British Bake Off while you wait. In 20 fuckin 13 some of you were still reading Robinhood as a picture book.
Lastly, the people buying EVs above the $50k range have easy access to charging, especially Tesla’s network. So, battery swapping for cars above $50k is serving a niche market, a handicap, and a money losing operation.
“But JJ… China EV Market Growth! They may have a smaller share right now, but the Pie grows for everyone!” Maybe, but if you look at the 2020 EV market growth, most of that came from guess who? Tesla. Oh, and a $8k mini, pretty much a golf kart that Tyrian would be uncomfortable in.
Solar & batteries are money losing businesses right now for Tesla, but people are pricing in some of those rosy projections into the valuation. Nio and Xpeng haven't even hinted at the idea because people in China live in 3D printed skyscraper boxes. Home solar and battery doesn’t make sense, but this also means no revenue opportunity.Oh and let’s not forget about autonomy… no, let’s forget about it (for now).
International expansion you say? Sure Nio and Xpeng trying to expand oversees to... Norway. No way has the population size of a small Indian wedding. Let's be honest here, would americans buy a "made in china" EV over a Tesla or even Ford/GM EV? I'm Chinese and I wouldn't even fuckin touch that shit.
Back to Cars, to make matters worse for Chinese EV players, Tesla has already designed a budget model. Unfortunately, it’ll be hard, like wiping ass with sandpaper, for Xpeng and Nio is follow suite in this space because of... MARGINS. Let's look at this next.
4. Your margin is my opportunity - JB Retiree
History lesson; how did China become #2 in GDP globally? They industrialized their massive population, kept the RMB artificially deflated to undercut the world through exports. Sure, quality suffered, but everything was “made in china” at some point. This is all to say, you can always increase demand by reducing price, and you can optimally reduce price if you have better margins than your competitors (or have the cash to sustain a loss to not bleed out before they do).
Let’s look at the current state of margins.
Q3 2020 Gross Margins
- Tesla: 23.5%
- Nio: 12.9%
- Xpeng: 4.6%
- Li Auto: 19.8%
We’ll have to revisit Q4 margins when everyone reports in a few weeks. But wow, it’s not even close for Nio and Xpeng. This is not even taking out Tesla’s solar & battery margins, which are negative, like when your mom finds out you YOLOed your college tuition on [redacted] at $400.
“But JJ, that’s not fair, Nio and Xpeng are still ramping!” First of all, so is Tesla, just on a larger scale. I mean, they are building factories like Starbucks locations. But fine, just taking a peak at margins for Tesla in earlier “ramp” years.
2017: 18.9%
2016: 22.8%
2015: 22.8%
This may not look right, something must be wrong you’re thinking. Well, let’s we take a look under the hood, you won’t find Trayvon Martin.
- Battery is the main cost of an EV. Tesla has been working on battery tech from the beginning, they invented and are retiring the “skateboard” design, saying it’s obsolete because they got something better, while Chinese EV companies are busy copying it. Ay caramba!
- For the batteries them selves, just look at battery output distribution. Both Nio and Xpeng rely on CATL for their batteries in China. But so does everyone else at an Indian wedding, including Tesla. Either everyone is going to be supply limited, or someone is going to have to pay more. You can pay more when you have better margins to work with/bleed cash. At least Tesla will have their own way out soon enough.
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Can you find Nio, Xpeng or Li Waldo?
- Tesla’s electronics are industry leading, Mario knows. Neo and Xpeng on the other hand outsources most of the Chips (Nvidia) and hardware (Mobile eye). When you outsource, you ultimately have less margin, control, speed and ability to freely synergize.
- Tesla is also literally stamping entire cars like crispy cream donuts. It's almost if Chinese EVs are trying to take on Megatron’s fuckin Fusion Cannon with blow darts. Nio on the other hand abandoned plans to make their own factory due to cash shortage and partnered with JAC. A short term plat that won't help margins in the long run.
- You know how Tim Apple gets a hard on every time he talks about service margins, EVs have some of that too.
- In car entertainment: Tesla is building an app store, while Nio and Xpeng outsources
- EV Charging: Tesla has the biggest network, Nio has $ losing battery swap, while Xpeng relied on and pays government network
- Connectivity: Startlink? *shrugs*
- Autonomous driving: Tesla is rolling out subs for FSD, and I wouldn’t trust Nio and Xpeng’s software with your wife’s boyfriend’s life
5. Closing
Look, Nio is backed by Tencent and Bidu. Xpeng is backed by Ali. Their balance sheets pass the acid test with flying colors, so they can bleed cash for awhile. But Tesla has a meme lord at the helm. Let’s not forget some of the giant local players like BYD, who is backed by Bigly Buffet himself. There is also SAIC, Great Wall, Geely, BAIC, Chang Jiang, Kandi, and dozens more names you don't know, just like the name of your cousin's mail in bride. Tesla copy cats are literally coming out of the woodworks, when buyers have a paradox of choice, the clear pick defaults back to the trusted brand, guess who?
CCP has already been 3 steps ahead of Biden (I mean, who isn't, lol) and EV bullish years ago. Matter of fact, EV subsidies (which Nio and Xpeng survive off of like a bums on opioids in the streets of San Francisco) are already getting cut by 20% in 2021, and phased out by 2022. I'll let you figure out what happens to deliveries when subsidies get cut, again comes back to magins and cash. If it comes down to EV price wars, I don't think it'll be Nio and Xpeng winning the bleed out. It'll be more like Matrix 3, rather than 1.
I’m no voodoo magic chart nerd, but Nio tested $65 resistance again yesterday and failed. Xpeng in general looks like it’s peaked. Google search interest has spiked and all the little virgin armchair analysts on YouTube have pumped it 10 times over. I’ll wait for their earning numbers in a few weeks to take the temperature again. I'll likely add more to the position then, will update.
At the end of the day, Nio and Xpeng may trade sideways for much longer than I can stay solvent, but fuck it, I’ve spent too much time on this, so sunk cost is set in hard, change my mind.
TL;DR Not sure when, but bet on EV bubble popping with Puts on Nio and Xpeng. Better to sit on the side lines for Tesla and Li Auto

Hey fellow plebs,
Been a while since I've written one of these since I've been super busy lately and haven't played much, hopefully you read my beginners guide a few months ago and finally managed to dig yourself out of gold like I have.
Anyways, in the games that I have played I've noticed that gold sharing is still a foreign concept to most people. I'm sure you guys have seen mid laners who gets upset because their jungleMM "soaked" their lane and threaten to AFK. Well, this guide is inspired by one of those guys and I'm here to tell you why it's actually advantageous for junglers/MMs to "soak" lanes. Notice I use the word soak, not steal.
AoV is a team game where the TEAM with the most gold is generally at an advantage, there isn't a single hero in AoV who can 1v5 once they're a little bit ahead unless you're stupid enough to not ban Butterfly. Therefore, the optimal strategy is to focus on the farm efficiency of the entire team instead of an individual hero, and that's where gold sharing comes in.

Gold sharing

I've mentioned this in several of my previous guides, for those of you who aren't familiar with the concept:
Gold is NOT divided equally among players when you share a minion. Lets say a minion gives 100 gold, when two players share the minion the gold isn't just equally divided by 2, giving each player 50 gold. When two players share the minion, they actually get something closer to 75 gold each meaning the total gold obtained is 150 from that single minion. When 3 players share the minion, they each get something similar to 67 gold each totaling 200 gold (the total gold you get from sharing doesn't exceed twice the amount of gold than if you cleared the minion solo, meaning if 4 people shared that minion the total gold gained is still 200 i.e 50 gold each).
Now it doesn't take a math genius to figure out that sharing gold is more beneficial to the TEAM. Sure, you get less gold individually than if you cleared the wave alone, but as a TEAM you're getting twice as much gold. As mentioned previously, it's usually the TEAM with most gold that wins the game. Sure, the enemy jungler or whatnot may be ahead of everyone on my team in terms of gold, but if my TEAM is leading by 5k gold chance are we're going to win the next team fight. Keep in mind that AOV is a TEAM game (notice how I'm stressing this?).

Should the Jungler take the mid wave?

Mid mains are gonna hate, but IMO yes. The jungler is usually the most gold dependent hero in the game next to the ADC, and is generally the early game carry whereas the ADC is the late game carry. The jungler should theoretically have priority on gold in the early game since most jungle heroes are useless without gold. After all, when was the last time you won a game with an underfarmed 0/8 jungler? Not very often is my guess.
“My junglers always suck i have to carry!!!!" While that might be true, the only thing more useless than a bad jungler is a bad jungler with no farm (and maybe Valhein mains).
With that said, the jungler should make an effort to SHARE the wave instead of simply taking/stealing it. What I mean by that is if you see the mid laner on his way back to his lane, just wait for 2 seconds for him to be in range before clearing it. If the mid laner is still fighting in another lane, and is not on his way back -- shove the wave in and carry on. The jungler clearing mid wave is advantageous for the below reasons:

1. It puts more gold on the jungler, who as mentioned before is more gold dependent than mid laners, and is the early game carry.
2. It puts pressure on the mid lane tower, because somebody from the enemy team HAS to clear the wave. If they nobody clears the wave, then they lost gold for nothing as a team. If the enemy mid laner come clears the wave, he's going to be late on his rotation which means you're fighting with a numbers advantage somewhere on the map. If the enemy jungler clears it, then that means the enemy mid laner is also "behind" in gold since he missed his wave. This is why you see some mid laners forfeit their 2nd minion wave altogether to the jungler in competitive play.

So as a mid laner, what should you do if your jungler soaked/took your minion wave especially when you're playing a somewhat gold dependent mid like Lilliana/Zata? What a lot of people start doing here is stop roaming and camp every single one of their mid waves until they're ready to fight, and let me tell you -- that's probably the most smooth brained thing you could possible do in this situation. Not only is the mid lane extremely vulnerable to ganks, meaning you'll be getting ganked from the DS lane, jungle AND dragon lane. Your ADC is also fighting an uphill battle since the enemy mid laner is constantly roaming and constantly putting pressure on your lane. This leads to a numbers advantage for the enemy where they can easily take down the dragon lane tower, and start invading your jungle. This is how snowballs start, and while you've secured your farm (not really because you probably got ganked to oblivion) everyone else on your team is most likely behind.
The solution to this is simple -- soak gold/exp from the JUNGLE. Not only does this allow you to maintain your farm & exp, this also allows your jungler to clear faster which can lead to an earlier gank that the enemy is not suspecting. This also gives your idiot ADC less time to INT and die to the enemy ganks since you'll be there before the enemy jungler (hopefully). Absolute genius if I must say so my self -- just try to not last hit the buffs/minions since you want your jungler to get stacks for the jungle item.

Trio Lane Concept

Okay, but u/Xenaren what the fuck is a Trio lane?
The concept of trio laning is simple (and it's not the same as a trio queue), and is designed to maximize the efficiency of team gold. As mentioned before, it's most beneficial for 3 people to share gold since the total gold you get from gold sharing doesn't exceed 200% of the gold gained from killing minions solo. Well technically it's most beneficial for 4 people to share gold due to support item, but it's impossible to clear every single wave/jungle as a group of 4 since the map is so big, meaning you'll lose out on a lot of gold.
Anyways, this strategy groups the mid laner, support and ADC together where they clear BOTH the mid wave AND the dragon lane wave starting from the mid lane. The jungler and DS laner clears their jungle/lane as usual with an occasional roam to soak more gold/EXP. This is a strategy that maintains the most efficient team farming while funneling as much gold as possible to the ADC at the same time.
The concept is simple - 3 man clear the first mid wave. Since you have 3 people and the other team will only have 2 or 1 (assuming they're using a more traditional laning strat), you'll have priority on the wave and you'll clear it fast AF because you have 3 people. The enemy mid laner and support cannot touch the wave otherwise they get poked out since you have 3 people. None of your 3 heroes will reach level 2 since you shared EXP, and that's COMPLETELY fine because you're going to rotate to the dragon lane RIGHT AWAY. Since the AD lane is longer than the mid lane - the minions would have JUST started to collide and you'll be able to get gold/exp from all 3 AD lane minions. If you were fast enough, the enemy AD would not have had enough time to clear the wave meaning he'll also be level 1. Once you clear this wave, the ADC and mid laner will be level 2, and you want to rotate back to the mid lane -- rinse and repeat.
Let's take a look at an example shall we -- first we'll assume that every minion gives 100 gold for simplicity sake.
ADC clearing wave alone or with a support (has support item so ADC gets 100% of gold/exp):
ADC - clears 3 minions so 100x3 = 300 gold
Mid - clear 3 minions so 100x3 = 300 gold
Support - Cleared 3 minions with mid/ADC so 100x3x40% = 120 gold
Total gold = 720 gold
3 man clear both mid and dragon lane wave:
ADC - clears 6 minions so 75x6 = 450 gold
Mid - clear 6 minions so 75x6 = 450 gold
Support - Was there for 6 minions so 100x6x40% = 240 gold
Total = 1140 gold
From this example - we can see that both the ADC and the mid laner gets 50% more gold by sharing the two lanes instead of just clearing their own lane. The support also gets double the gold if he soaked minions from both lanes instead of just one, which leads to almost a 60% increase in minion farming efficiency. Now add a Teemee on top of this? Yeah, that's why Teemee is banned in high elo because this is a strategy that's used often. This is how snowballs start right under our noses even though sometimes it seems that the enemy isn't even doing anything.
Now the difference isn't going to be THIS drastic in a real game situation, since each minion only gives around 60 gold and the ranged minion only gives like 30 instead of 100 each like the above, plus there's also passive gold (2 gold per second) as well as kill/assist gold. But a team using a 3-1-1 strategy vs a team using a traditional laning strategy could easily get a 1k-2k gold lead by the 5-6 minute mark if done, and that's absolutely huge when the gold is funneled onto the marksman.

Other Advantages

Not only are you going to be ahead in gold if you execute this correctly, there are also other advantages. Since you're team will be roaming as a group of 3, the chances of you guys getting caught solo is extremely low. On the other hand, since the enemy is NOT roaming as a group of 3, the chances of them getting caught is extremely high.
For example, let's say the enemy is running a duo lane in the AD lane. Your group of 3 will have priority for the mid wave (since it's 3v1), and once you rotate to the AD lane, you'll also have priority in the AD lane (since it's 3v2). If the enemy mid roams to the AD lane via the river, the chances of him meeting your group of 3 at the river is EXTREMELY high and you can easily kill or poke him out and get priority on the 2nd mid wave -- rinse and repeat. If your jungler is smart, he'll come invade the jungle with you guys once he saw that the enemy got killed/poked out.
The longer this goes on for, the more of a gold advantage you'll have over the other team, and the easier the game gets.
This strategy also counters strong level 2 mages such as Ignis. Since you're trio laning the mid wave, you have priority on the first mid wave. This delays the enemy Ignis just enough from his first wave clear that by the time he reaches level 2, your jungler would've finished with his first buff which makes enemy invades much more difficult.
What you want to avoid is invading right after you've cleared the mid lane ESPECIALLY without your jungler since at this point you're all still level one. Once the enemy mid laner clears his wave he'll be level two, and once the enemy AD laner clears the AD lane he'll be level two as well. If they collapse onto you in THEIR jungle, they have a huge advantage and you will get wiped. This strategy focuses on getting the MM farmed, let your own jungler decide whether or not he wants to invade.

Heroes good for this strategy

Marmskan:
Literally any marksman, this strategy is designed to get the ADC out of the early game as soon as possible. Some "early game" ADCs will have an advantage here such as Violet, but it doesn't really matter which ADC is used.
Mid:
Try to pick a hero with good poke + some CC. This strategy is perfect for Raz since it takes care of his main issue which is slow clear speed. Other heroes like Lorion/Krixi/Zata/AleisteDirak/Ignis/Veera/Natalya/Tulen/whatever is fine as well. The only hero that I'd try to avoid is maybe Laurel since she's kind of garbo pre-level 4.
Support:
Probably the most important part of this Trio lane -- you want to pick a support that can do things at level 1. Heroes like Teeme and Zip are self explanatory but you really want to stay away from useless pre-4 supports such as Arum or Alice. Thane/Mina/Ata are some tanks you could look to play in this strategy, if you want to be more aggressive go for RiktoWW.

How to Counter a Trio Lane?

Okay, so I've now sold you on the idea of a trio lane. How do you counter it???
There are several ways to counter it --
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find out next time
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Okay fine, some ways you can counter this is to camp the enemy trio lane at the river as they're roaming. Or you can get your team to invade the buff on the dark slayer side (since the trio will be roaming between mid and AD, you'll have the numbers advantage).
Ran out of time writing this - will expand on counter strategies in the future.

Every time I see another pump article on the “next Chinese Tesla” because deliveries, I get triggered and have to put on chilled cow on spotify for 3 hours. Although entertaining, “NIO is going to squeeze like GME, all aboard!” comments on stocktwits is making my testicles feel like tiny furrowed cerebrums and not because it’s cold AF outside.
So I had to put together some pleb research on TSLA, NIO, XPENG & LI for you to scoff at. This is NOT financial advice, I just don’t like these stocks.
1. Positions
https://imgur.com/qKMQHBo Yeah my lazy ass needs to switch off.
A few more 2023s, I just went sniping randomly yesterday. Full disclosure, I also hold and sell CCs on my Tesla shares, so this play doubles as somewhat of a hedge for me. Sorry, not up to YOLO standards, I'm a lil biatch.
2. The Chosen Ones: NIO & XPENG
Did you ever look at TSLA and think, god damn that shit is overpriced? Then look at the price to sales and realize, holy fuck it is? Then looked at it a month later and the price doubled? Well guess what, NIO and XPENG are trading even higher than TSLA.
Current PS as of 2/10/2021
- TSLA: ~25
- NIO: ~40
- XPENG: ~41
- LI: ~19 (It’s because their flagship SUV is hybrid electric +ICE, insane PS reserved for pure bloods only)
Let’s compare. These guys aren't coding the next Gran Turismo 8, but let’s look at high margin tech anyways.
- NFLX: ~10
- ABNB: ~28
- PLTR: ~72 (peter pan stock)
Actual automotives, old, unsexy, fell from grace, like your grandma’s teets
- TM: ~0.8
- F: ~0.4
- VWAGY: ~0.5
I did some monkey spreadsheet math to forecast their updated TTM Revs after Q1. Don’t ask me how I did that, the answer either won’t impress you, or straight up glide over your smooth brain and I need you to focus on what’s important right now.
Q1 2021 PS if MC doesn’t change
- TSLA: ~22
- NIO: ~29
- XPENG: ~26
- LI: ~14
Yep, still overvalued AF. Before we get into the nuts and butts, there is always the risk (lotto upside in our case) that macros choke and correct >20% because of some black swan (I mean it’s 2020s, Murphy has been trying to prove a point). When this happens, we know what gets hit hardest, the ones with the high forwarding looking, rosy multiples. These EV stocks will get beat up worse than that washed up highschool varsity prom king’s girlfriend.
Some other lotto events include China stocks being delisted, and who can forget the audit risk on those poorly cooked books, but enough to win the Great Chinese Bake Off.
Can they grow Revenues though? Let's look.
3. Revenue Growth Stunted
You might be one of those Stocktwats and you’re thinking; “but but... they’ll ramp deliveries exponentially and grow Revenues just like TSLA did back in 2018!” *Smacks you in the face*, no they won’t and here is why.
Chinese people love brand name shit. I repeat, Chinese people love brand name shit. Quantitatively, go look at LVMH sales in China. The figures on Chinese tourists going on vacation, spending without looking at the price tag (naw they definitely check for them deals) is incredible. They’re not there to look at some antiquated tower (way better architecture back home), they tryin to get those furry Gucci Slips on discount (they are ugly AF btw). Tesla is no different, people worship Musk over there. You could probably sell his panties online, and some Chinese billionaire will pay millions for it, just like they did for his Gene Wilder house in LA. Qualitatively, I called my cousins in China, confirmed, he couldn’t stop jizzing at the slight mention of Tesla.
Why does this matter? Owning a TSLA is like owning any other brand name shit in China, social status. Social status is EVERYTHING to much more of the population in China vs. RoW. The biggest difference is, you’re not going to be able to buy a knock-off TSLA in some shady, cigarette smoking thug’s closet on the 2nd floor of a Chinese dumpling street stand.
TSLA just ramped the Model Y in China and started deliveries in Jan. That shit sold out in a matter of days. If you’re not buying one, you basically have to settle for an uglier wife (this is probably not much of an exaggeration). Well guess who has been selling mostly midsize SUVs without much competition from TSLA and achieving recording breaking deliveries up until now?
NIO: 100% SUVs
Xpeng: 40% SUVs
Brand aside, some triggered specs nerd out there is thinking “Well, ultimately people will decide based on specs and value, not brand alone.” Fine, let’s take a look at what aspects of an EV people care about.
Let’s break it down apples to apples for these SUV EVs
Tesla Model Y- Price: ~$52,800
- Range: 594 km (Kilometers for the apes)
- 0-100km Acceleration: 5.1s
- Charger network: 20,000+
NIO EC6
- Price: ~$57,200
- Range: 430 km (605 if you pay ~$9k for a bigger battery)
- 0-100km Acceleration: 5.4s
- Charger network: 290+
Xpeng G3 520
- Price: ~$30,580
- Range: 520 km
- 0-100km Acceleration: 8.6s
- Charger network: 866+
You may be thinking the G3 520’s price tag is looking pretty attractive. Then you imagine the future wife you’ll be banging, yeah, trade up for that Tesla boi.
“But JJ, NIO has battery swap tech! It’s perfect for China’s dense cities!” If you know anything about product market fit, battery swapping for EVs is like trying to bang a gerbil's anus. First of all, battery swap stations are way more expensive to build, stock and maintain. Crazy upfront build out costs and battery requirements kill your rate of expansion (shit is important for demand). Tesla superchargers are spreading like wildfire and become recurring revenue generators over time, while battery swap stations stay cost centers over time, breakeven at best. That’s why NIO tries to charge a $150 subscription fee, I’d rather get pornhub subs for the whole family. Oh btw, you can’t even do it yourself, you have to give it to a service technician to do the swapping for you. Be realistic, these wealthy, classist Chinese dirtbags (I’m Chinese and know some first hand) don’t want some lowlife service tech to sit on their mothball leather.
Back to battery swapping and product market fit. Look, Tesla tried this in 2013, decided it was dumb, abandoned it and decided to make charging super fast and let you watch the actual Great British Bake Off while you wait. In 20 fuckin 13 some of you were still going through behavioral therapy.
Lastly, the people buying EVs above the $50k range have easy access to charging, especially Tesla’s network. So, battery swapping for cars above $50k is serving a niche market, a handicap, and a money losing operation.
“But JJ… China EV Market Growth! They may have a smaller share right now, but the Pie grows for everyone!” Maybe, but if you look at the 2020 EV market growth, most of that came from guess who? Tesla. Oh, and a $8k mini, pretty much a golf kart that Tyrian would be uncomfortable in.
Solar & batteries are money losing businesses right now for Tesla, but people are pricing in some of those rosy projections into the valuation. Nio and Xpeng haven't even hinted at the idea because people in China live in 3D printed skyscraper boxes. Home solar and battery doesn’t make sense, but this also means no revenue opportunity.
Oh and let’s not forget about autonomy… no, let’s forget about it (for now).
International expansion you say? Sure Nio and Xpeng trying to expand oversees to... Norway. No way has the population size of a small Indian wedding. Let's be honest here, would americans buy a "made in china" EV over a Tesla or even Ford/GM EV? I'm Chinese and I wouldn't even fuckin touch that shit.
Back to Cars, to make matters worse for Chinese EV players, Tesla has already designed a budget model. Unfortunately, it’ll be hard, like wiping ass with sandpaper, for Xpeng and Nio is follow suite in this space because of... MARGINS. Let's look at this next.
4. Your margin is my opportunity - JB Retiree
History lesson; how did China become #2 in GDP globally? They industrialized their massive population, kept the RMB artificially deflated to undercut the world through exports. Sure, quality suffered, but everything was "made in china" at some point. This is all to say, you can always increase demand by reducing price, and you can optimally reduce price if you have better margins than your competitors (or have the cash to sustain a loss to not bleed out before they do).
Let’s look at the current state of margins.
Q3 2020 Gross Margins
- Tesla: 23.5%
- Nio: 12.9%
- Xpeng: 4.6%
- Li Auto: 19.8%
We’ll have to revisit Q4 margins when everyone reports in a few weeks. But wow, it’s not even close for Nio and Xpeng. This is not even taking out Tesla’s solar & battery margins, which are negative, like when your mom finds out you YOLOed your college tuition on [redacted] at $400.
“But JJ, that’s not fair, Nio and Xpeng are still ramping!” First of all, so is Tesla, just on a larger scale. I mean, they are building factories like Starbucks locations. But fine, just taking a peak at margins for Tesla in earlier “ramp” years.
2017: 18.9%
2016: 22.8%
2015: 22.8%
This may not look right, something must be wrong you’re thinking. Well, let’s we take a look under the hood, you won’t find Trayvon Martin.
- Battery is the main cost of an EV. Tesla has been working on battery tech from the beginning, they invented and are retiring the “skateboard” design, saying it’s obsolete because they got something better, while Chinese EV companies are busy copying it. Ay caramba!
- For the batteries them selves, just look at battery output distribution. Both Nio and Xpeng rely on CATL for their batteries in China. But so does everyone else at an Indian wedding, including Tesla. Either everyone is going to be supply limited, or someone is going to have to pay more. You can pay more when you have better margins to work with/bleed cash. At least Tesla will have their own way out soon enough.
https://imgur.com/ZacBvhz
Can you find Nio, Xpeng or Li Waldo?
- Tesla’s electronics are industry leading, Mario knows. Neo and Xpeng on the other hand outsources most of the Chips (Nvidia) and hardware (Mobile eye). When you outsource, you ultimately have less margin, control, speed and ability to freely synergize.
- Tesla is also literally stamping entire cars like crispy cream donuts. It's almost if Chinese EVs are trying to take on Megatron’s fuckin Fusion Cannon with blow darts. Nio on the other hand abandoned plans to make their own factory due to cash shortage and partnered with JAC. A short term plat that won't help margins in the long run.
- You know how Tim Apple gets a hard on every time he talks about service margins, EVs have some of that too.
- In car entertainment: Tesla is building an app store, while Nio and Xpeng outsources
- EV Charging: Tesla has the biggest network, Nio has $ losing battery swap, while Xpeng relied on and pays government network
- Connectivity: Startlink? *shrugs*
- Autonomous driving: Tesla is rolling out subs for FSD, and I wouldn’t trust Nio and Xpeng’s software with your wife’s boyfriend’s life
5. Closing
Look, Nio is backed by Tencent and Bidu. Xpeng is backed by Ali. Their balance sheets pass the acid test with flying colors, so they can bleed cash for awhile. But Tesla has a meme lord at the helm. Let’s not forget some of the giant local players like BYD, who is backed by Bigly Buffet himself. There is also SAIC, Great Wall, Geely, BAIC, Chang Jiang, Kandi, and dozens more names you don't know, just like the name of your cousin's mail in bride. Tesla copy cats are literally coming out of the woodworks, when buyers have a paradox of choice, the clear pick defaults back to the trusted brand, guess who?
CCP has already been 3 steps ahead of Biden (I mean, who isn't, lol) and EV bullish years ago. Matter of fact, EV subsidies (which Nio and Xpeng survive off of like a bums on opioids in the streets of San Francisco) are already getting cut by 20% in 2021, and phased out by 2022. I'll let you figure out what happens to deliveries when subsidies get cut, again comes back to magins and cash. If it comes down to EV price wars, I don't think it'll be Nio and Xpeng winning the bleed out. It'll be more like Matrix 3, rather than 1.
I’m no voodoo magic chart nerd, but Nio tested $65 resistance again yesterday and failed. Xpeng in general looks like it’s peaked. Google search interest has spiked and all the little virgin armchair analysts on YouTube have pumped it 10 times over. I’ll wait for their earning numbers in a few weeks to take the temperature again. I'll likely add more to the position then, will update.
At the end of the day, Nio and Xpeng may trade sideways for much longer than I can stay solvent, but fuck it, I’ve spent too much time on this, so sunk cost is set in hard, change my mind.
TL;DR Not sure when, but bet on EV bubble popping with Puts on Nio and Xpeng. Better to sit on the side lines for Tesla and Li Auto