Fun title, right?
DISCLAIMER:
There have been many Lebron vs Jordan threads. I imagine there will continue to be. I realize this bothers people, but frankly it shouldn't. Comparing and arguing about the greats is a large aspect of the narrative surrounding the nba. Sport is a form of storytelling, and a new generation's hero chasing a ghost of the past is one of the better storylines we have.
That being said, if you are worred about "tired arguments/cliches" I dont think you have to worry. The vast majority of what I'm going to be discussing here --hasnt'-- been covered and is going to be fairly in-depth and comprehensive. There will be no "1-9", "6-0", or ect. I am unconcerned with what the popular narratives or points around these two players are. Nor am I going to hide my biases or bother acting like I don't have a preference here. The title implies exactly what I think.
I am simply going to make arguments, and, being aware that there are a wide variety of criteria differing from mine, I am going to specifically make a variety of arguments that may appeal to those criteria. While I personally don't care too much about things like peak, cross era comp, team success, or resume, many people here do..
I've left out longetvity because I haven't seen people dispute Lebron's superiority there (though if you disagree you are welcome to discuss why in the comments). The aim here is to persuade, but I will try to do this by using wide variety of avenues as opposed to forcing my own narrow criteria onto you.
I am going to primarily argue that
A. Lebron peaked higher than Micheal Jordan
B. Lebron on average was better at basketball than Micheal Jordan when they played
C. Lebron has a better resume
With all that said, as this is going to be rather long. So long I'm going to be breaking this into parts. I'm going to provide an outline here and bold the various sections so that you can skip to whatever interests you, in case you don't want to read all of it. For now we're just going to do 1., an the first part of 2. (I was originally intending to do everything at once but, er, i need more time lol):
1. COUNTER ARGUMENTS - Will tackle arguments made for jordan that seem to have signficant traction which I find dubious. A. Stats B. Resume
2. Granular film/play breakdown - The idea is to make my conclusion here make sense 'on paper'. This will also work to supplant the holistic evidence that I think strongly supports lebron's superiority.
A. Defense B. Creation C. Scoring
3. Holistic Evidence/impact - Having laid out "why lebron being better than jordan makes sense", I'm going to try and show that what I've outlined "on paper" is well supported by the results
4. RESUME - I'm going to make the case that Lebron's resume is better, that Jordan's advantages here aren't being applied consistently in other comparisons and supplant this with...
5. ERA COMPARISON - Establish that the 2000's-2010's have a talent advantage over the 90's similar to that enjoyed by the 90's over the 60's(since the era is a fair explanation for many on the valuation of certain accoaldes shifting)
6. Rules - Some people claim that the rules favor Lebron relative to Jordan. By using what I consider a fair analog for Jordan in Curry(and yes I am going to back this up) as well as how jordan performed against the great defenses of his time, I'm going to dispute the idea that jordan would get --better--as a playoff performer with illegal defnese being removed.
7. Intangibles - Will argue Lebron has a better influence on winning off the court and is more resilient against elite oppostion as well as opposing defensive adjustments in the playoffs
8. Team success - Just going to present a case for lebron being more successful from a team perspective. Will refer back to era comparison
9. Conclusion - you can figure this out I think.
Now that I've mapped out what this will look like, lets get started...
1. COUNTER ARGUMENTS
A. _STATS_
There are two sorts of stastical arguments that are typically made in support of Jordan. The first is one that's prevelant in sports media from Max Kellerman to Zach Lowe to supposedly 'smarter' analysts like Nate Silver. "The Secular Micheal Jordan" by u/John_Krolik outlines it fairly well:

PER: Okay, #1 in all-time regular season PER is...Michael Jordan. I'll keep an eye on that name.
Win Shares per 48: Like I said, I slightly prefer average to cumulative, so I'll look at this instead of overall Win Shares next. #1 in that category is...Michael Jordan. Stat geeks must love this guy.
Box Plus-Minus: Limited, but interesting, let's see if it matches up with what I've seen so far. #1 in that is...Michael Jordan. I think I have a clubhouse leader here.

Here are the numbers for lebron and jordan u/John_Krolik is referencing:
PER: Lebron- 27.5 Jordan- 27.9
WS/48: Lebron-.244 Jordan- .25
BPM: Lebron- 8.9 Jordan- 9.2
The point of the essay is that Jordan has a strong argument as the greatest player ever without narrative crafting like "jordan was a killah!" and a heavy emphasis on rings "6-0". This section is specifcally arguing, that "you would think jordan was the greatest player ever if you only looked at bball-reference" and therefore Jordan has a strong --stastitical argument-- as the GOAT.
The only issue here is that such a stastical argument is contingent on ignoring that two very different samples are very different. See, generally, as players play longer, averages go down. Lebron entered the league three years earlier than Jordan did, stayed in the league two years longer(soon to be three), and didn't miss as much time with injury/baseball.
Here's how many minuites each played:
Lebron- 48637 Jordan- 41011
To make matters worse with this sample, the years dragging down Lebron's average, his first three years in the league are years where he was vastly better than Jordan. Jordan's weakest years as a basketball player relative to Lebron are not included in this sample, and these three years easily represent the largest gap between the two. Here's what each did from the ages of 19-21...
Age 19
Lebron joins a 17 win team and instantly elevates them to 35 wins. Is clearly the best player on a near .500 team in the NBA.
Jordan joins a team that goes 29-8 and made the ncaa championship, he's a very good role player as they win 32 games and win the ncaa championship off a very clutch MJ shot. This is the NCAA.
Age 20
Lebron improves and makes all-nba as one of the best players in the league. The cavs record improves by 8 wins despite losing their second best player(boozer) as they start playing >.500 basketball.
Jordan improves and becomes the best player on his team. Despite this, largely due to worthy leaving, UNC regreses from 32-2 to 28-6 and gets knocked out in the elite 8.
Age 21
Lebron firmly establishes himself as one of the best players in the league finishing 2nd in MVP voting and carrying the cavs to nearly 50 wins. In the playoffs he leads his team past the wizards and takes the pistons, 2 time eastern conference champs and (almost) 2x defending champs, to 7. The pistons proceed to take 2 games off the eventual champs.
Jordan finishes 1st in college player of the year voting, leads his team to an improved 28-2 RS record and gets knocked out in the last 16.
Summary
To put it simply, Lebron was able to play at a comparable level in the nba as Jordan was able to in the ncaa despite
A Playing much better competition
B. Playing twice as many games
C. Playing three times as many minuites
Lebron was far, far better at basketball during these three years that drag down Lebron in the all-in-one's u/John_Krolik is citing. That Lebron is essentially tying Jordan in these all in one's despite playing far longer and being graded on a much steeper curve speaks to, at least if you value these kind of metrics, Lebron being better at basketball. This becomes even clearer in the postseason.
​

Alright, I hope this guy wasn't basketball's Mike Trout, or I'm in trouble.
Playoff PER: Okay, he's #1 in that. Can't imagine people hating on someone with a top-3 playoff PER.
Playoff WS/48: #1 again.
Box Plus-Minus: Believe it or not, he's #1.

​
Here are the numbers u/John_Krollik is referencing.
PER: Lebron- 28.4 Jordan- 28.6
WS/48: Lebron- .245 Jordan- .255
BPM: Lebron- 10.6 Jordan- 11.1
Here's how many minuites they played:
Lebron- 10811 Jordan- 7474
So again, Lebron is basically tying Jordan despite playing around 30% more.
Of course Lebron isn't even the worst victim of this disinegnuous framing. Kareem, has three of the top 4 ws/48's so why is he lower than Jordan and Lebron here?
Well, it might have something to do with him playing 57446 minuites. Not to mention Kareem was good enough to be one of the best players in the league in college while Jordan was...definitely not.
Wilt has the best two seasons of PER and is only .2 off MJ's ws/48 while playing 6000 more minuites.
This isn't to say this proves wilt was nearly as good as anyone ever(I dont even have Wilt's peak as top 5), but if you are lending weight to these kinds of stats(more on why you really shouldn't later), considering the sample size and what's being sampled is like context 101. Jordan is not #1 in these stats because he played the best, he's #1 in these stats because he played less and his worst years as a basketball player relative to the others here aren't even included in the sample.
With that out of the way, lets get to the second, somewhat more respectable argument often made: Listing Jordan's slash-line, listing Lebron's, and coming to the conclusion, "jordan's better". My issue with this is really two-fold:

1. People don't track what's happening at a team level or how these box stats are correlating with what really is the point of havng good players, how much they're lifting their team. This is especially relevant here, because Lebron's 'impact' has largely been better relative to his box stats than Jordan. Or, to put it another way, Lebron's 'box stats' translate better to improvment in team performance than Jordan's do. I'll be elaborating on this in 'holistics' but Lebron has been able to achieve similar or better results than jordan at his best in a wide variety of settings and contexts with the granular signals of his game radically changing.
2. Basiclaly everything in a slashline outside of scoring(kinda) is pretty awful at tracking what they're supposed to show a player's attributes in. For now lets focus on point 2.

To start lets look at assists.
https://youtu.be/RmOHrDxpoxg?t=220
This is an extremely valuable play where lebron creates a very good look off a combination of nigh unrivalled inteior gravity(hence why two defenders try to prevent him from picking up speed) and his talent as a skip passer. No assist.
https://youtu.be/S2lKIW9TNjk?t=77
This play isn't completely worthless, its not the easiest pass in the world and he does draw defensive attention with two players looking at him, but kyrie is clearly doing way more of the work here and ends up having to score over the defenders lebron is distracting anyway. Assist. If you were to watch the mavs game from the beginning there are 5 plays from lebron more valuable than the assist i just linked that dont end up being recorded as assists.
Alright another example, courtesy of u/BlockedbyBAM who stattracked bird's game 1 in the 97 ecf.
(Blocked has actually supplied alot of the argumentation/film-tracking/clips/statistical-da, ect, ect, so if you like this post, thank her, if you hate it blame her. To quote her "I am merely her puppet" ;D)
https://youtu.be/Nm2efjx9Xus?t=2260
Like the lebron play its not entirely worthless, bird running to the other side to draw defender away is worth something, but ulimately, the pass is a play legendary passer kevin durant could have made and ultimate the scorer is doing the --vast-- majority of the work.
https://youtu.be/JCks-bQbn1A?t=25
Lets compare that to off-ball wizard Stephen Curry. Here he ends up drawing not one, not two, but three defenders away from green leaving him wide open.. He techinally distracts gasol too, but whose counting. BTW, if you're wondering why only one man is being thrown at 40% shooter larry bird, remember
A. Bird did that on incredibly low volme and as importantly
B. Bird shot 34% against defenses that actually bothered to cover his three pointers.
Anyway the point is this play is --faaar-- more valuabe than the play i linked above, but both count the same.
According to Ben Taylor, a man who is incredibly high on the peaks of both Jordan and Bird (has pieak bird as>peak magic, gives Jordan 5 seasons better than anyone else's, i'm just saying this so I don't have to hear nonsense about elgee being some sort of 'biased source'. If you were to look at what he used to post in realgm, you'd find he was a massive jordan ---and--- larry bird stan.), Curry created 17 shots while only getting awarded 4 assists. Conjecture I guess, but I imagine if we replaced the 'assist' slot in the slashline with --shots created-- for his raptors series, the discussion wouldn't be "why can't curry perform like KD in the final?" and more was this the greatest offensive series we've ever seen?.
Incindentally, team assists has a 0.04% correlation with offense rating and the man who created more open shots than lebron james averaged less assists per game than legendary passer Kevin Durant. Assists offer some value, if you correlate assist totals with an induvidual's tendencies as a creator, but really they're only useful here because its a bit much to film track every game ever played. When we can rely on oppurtunies created(when a player creates a free throw, a open look, via rebounding gravity, scoring ravity, above replacement passing, ect, ect), we will rely on oppurtunies created, because the point of passing is to create for others, not to boost your assist count.
What about rebounds?
Per u/blockedbyBAM, of Bird's 13 rebounds that game, 2 of those rebounds were contested. His one offensive rebound wasn't really contested wth his bigmen doing most of the work. It turns out playing with two bigs can wonders for you in recording certain stats(namely blocks and rebounds).
What about blocks?
I'm really going to get into this into A. DEFENSE but to demonsrate why this means very little without some sort of tracking of player tendencies/impact, (ex: duncan is a big man who posts atg defnesive impact, if duncan's block rate doubles in the playoffs, that probably means something) Bill Walton contested far more shots in the paint. Kareem Abdul Jabbar has more blocks. Kareem is actually third in blocks. Alas, Kareem is nowhere near the third best paint protector of all time, if he was, this post might be named The Secular Kareem.
Steals tho
Iverson led the league in steals, defenses stayed the same or got worse with him. Curry led the league in steals while committing very few defensive errors in 16. While metrics consistently rate curry as a positive(before and with draymond green), there's nothing that suggests he's as valuable as inferior steal-getter kyle lowry. Steals just aren't --that--valuable defensively. They provide offensive value, but thats already baked into other stats. Context also matters, if you're playing on a team with a bunch of switchable defenders/poa dudes who can on a scheme with prioritizes hyper aggressive lunging, your steals are probably less valuable than those acquired alongside, say, the 99 twin towers. IOW, if the team is scheming around getting you steals, credit should probably be shared more. More on that in DEFENSE.
I hope I have demonstrated to you that while slashlines are useful in small doses with heavy applicaion of context, they are not a patcualrly strong rack to hang your hat on. Ultimately impact, or more specfically, your affect on winning, should be the primary driver of your analysis. Granular data is useful, but don't forget the forest for the trees. And when you are examning the trees, keep in mind that there are better magnifying glasses than ppg/apg/rebounds.
Finally, lets bring it all full circle with those all-in one's I was talking about. Guess what they're largely or (in the case of per) entirely based on? These not so useful slashlines and their derivatives. Go figure.
B. ACCOLADES
I'm going to get into a case for lebron's resume being more impressve in ACCOLADES, but there's something I take serious issue with: patial credit accolades. What that's you say? Scoring titles, dpoy', assist titles, leading the league in steals, ect, ect. When a player happens to be the best(or at least the most prolific) at one aspect of the game, and this is tacked on their resume as if players who acheived similar holistic recognition(as in they were as good overall) are not as good becuase they happen to be more versatile. Lebron won a scoring title in 2008 at the age of 23. Same age as Jordan's first. Did he get worse as a scorer? No, what happened was that his --passing-- skyrocketed in 2009, and thus, as any player who isn't a low iq idiot would do, he turned his scoring volume down a bit and started --creating--. Jordan's first scoring title, where he averaged 37 ppg, would have won over every other season he'd ever played. Did Jordan get worse? No, again, holistically he improved, as can be tracked with holistic accolades. Defensive stuff is a bit more understandable, defense is comically under appreciated, but there's issues here too(i will get into that after this section) when we're talking about guards as opposed to bigs. With that said, if you want to use jordan's dpoy, keep in mind, that Lebron won more dpoy votes from 09-13 than did at any point in his career. If jordan was a better defender in 88 than Lebron was in 09 or 13, Lebron was a better defender for his 5-year prime. As for all-nba? I'll get into this next, but one is a guard and the other is a forward. None the less, this is all still partial credit. Someone who was one vote shy of a unanimous mvp is not suddenly worse at basketball because you tag a dpoy and a scoring title to one of thier seasons.
Lebron's holisitic resume is superior imo, and thats really what matters. There are --ways-- you can argue jordan's actually more decorated but...lets just say for now its hard to apply that line of reasoning consistently...(will get into this in accolades).
Before we enter--film--, i will make one last point. This is all --regular season-- shit. This isn't to say its worthless, but if you're a team that's good enough to make the title, the regular season means very little relative to postseason play. And as I'm going to argue soon, the stretch of tme in which jordan turns an mvp defecit(3-4) to an advantage (5-4), during his second three-peat, Lebron is playing far better postseason basketball.
For now, here's a reminder of what they did in their most decorated 5 year stretches. I'll cheat and give jordan an extra year so we can count all his mvp's:
Jordan, 3 MVP'S, 3 FMVP'S, 5 ALL STAR, 5 ALL-NBA
Lebron, 4 MVP'S, 2 FMVP'S, 5 ALL-STAR, 5 ALL-NBA
Pretty close, but as a tiebreaker, lebron winning 4 mvp's in 5 years, and coming closer to a unanimous mvp than Jordan, isn't a bad shout.
2. GRANULAR FILM/PLAY BREAKDOWN
A. Defense
First, lets agree on something. The most valuable aspect of defense by a country mile is....protecting the paint. In case you disagree, lets look at the results.
What is the greatest defense in history? The 60's celtics Who was their most valable defender? A paint protector.
How about the next best defenses?
The 60's Lakers? Wilt. The Knicks? Ewing. The Spurs? Duncan and Robinson, I mean they're literally called --THE TWIN TOWERS--. The pistons? Ben Wallace. The 08 Celtics? Kevin Garnett. The Raptors? Gasol. The Bucks? Giannis and Brook
What about the best 5 yr defense of the 2010's? The Golden State Warriors? Draymond green, a paint protector.
The only team to win a championship without an elite paint protector in the last 10 years is the Miami Heat whose best defeder was....one of the best paint protecting wings in history, known as Lebron James. Okay I lied, there was another team that won a championship without an elite paint protecting big, the 2016 cavs whose best defender was....Lebron James.
"The Bulls didn't have true big-men" you say. You know who they did have? The --BEST-- Pant Protecting Wing in history, Scottie Pippen. As well as Horace Grant.
People argued Marcus Smart and Ben Simmons were deserving dpoy's. Their Dpipm doesn't touch that of AD, Giannis and Rudy Gobert.
The Lakers had Dwight, Lebron, and AD, the Clippes had Kawhi, Paul George and Patrick Beverly. Guess which team got blown to hell by playoff offenses and guess which team didn't.
If Tom Brady is the Micheal Jordan of football, paint protection is the Micheal Jordan of defense. It always has been, and barring the introduction of a 4 point line, always will be, The most pivotal part of keeping the ball from entering the hoop. Ben Taylor, the man who thinks Jordan has the 5 best seasons ever, got alot of flack for darng to call out Jordan's defensive risk takng. I too will give Ben flack... for making it seem like his aggressive steal chasing(and we will get to that) is why he wasn't a deserving DPOY.
No, what makes MJ "definitely not a dpoy defender" is that he offers little paint resistance compared to say a lebron or a pippen(let alone players like hakeem, eaton, kg, duncan, ect). But jordan averaged as many blocks! you say. Yes, but this is why you don't use 'blocks' when comparing a shooting guard to a wing.
We talk about gravity on offense, but what about defensive gravity? As I said before, Ben touches on the concept when he notes that Walton affected more possessions than Kareem despite Kareem getting alot more blocks, but this reaches a whole new level with players like Larry Bird or 6'6 shooting guard MJ, players who spent their defensve primes playng with one or multiple comparable-better rim deterrents.
This is what most jordan blocks look like:https://youtu.be/fFPi95UEpog?t=55Jordan gets the block, but is he even the key to this possession? The difficult part of this, holding ewing still, isn't being done by Jordan. Jordan is making this play off his teamamte's, gravity defensively. If you rewatch the section where ben is fawning over Jordan's rim protection...
https://youtu.be/p5aNUS762wM?t=1212
...you might notice that aside for --two-- clips, all these plays have jordan making plays on a defender whose preoccupied worrying about a larger guy at the rim.
Lets compare this to the following non-blocks:https://youtu.be/T-c1NradPN4?t=147Lebron's presence here blows up a potential dunk/layup, a shot even more dangerous than a curry three. Lebron isn't awarded a block here, but this play is more valuable than the majority of plays you'll see in a jordan defensive highlight reel.https://youtu.be/T-c1NradPN4?t=17Lebron here basically prevents a open layup/dunk. These kinds of plays are both extremely valuable and require a combination of strength and size Jordan doesn't have.https://youtu.be/T-c1NradPN4?t=176Here, Lebron isn't rewarded a block and even looks a bit silly, but his presence is what draws draymond's attention and allows for delly to get the block.https://youtu.be/3oAAcEQ8t84?t=1529Lebron ends up getting a block later on the possessions, but the key of this possession is here, where Lebron's presence makes dwight opt for a post up, preventing what is the most dangerous play in basketball, an all time interior threat coming in at the rim.Per blockedbybam, Lebron blocked, diverted, or deterred a dwight inside atempt 18 times over the ECF..https://youtu.be/MyWFllfRqaU?t=256.Grant gets the block, and pippen is made to look silly, but it's pippen who sets the play up for grant. Much like a shooter will feed of a slasher's interior gravity, grant makes this play off pippen's defense.https://youtu.be/C7uxePXXfU8?t=63While the possession doesn't end up going chicago's way, what Pippen is doing here, essentially pre-emptively nuetralizing the threat of an Ewing drive is about as valuabe as a play you will get defensively. It doesn't show up in the scoresheet.
Over this series, Pippen interefeed/prevented ewing rim attempts 22 times.
None of the linked plays show up in the stat-sheet, but they are all signficantly more valuable than the average play you would see in a jordan's defense highlight videos. Equally importantly, these are all plays that Jordan, the 6'6 shooting guard has no hope of replicating. When ben calls Jordan "one of the best shotblocking guards ever", whats important to remember here is that "guard" is a very signifcant qualifier. Jordan's 'paint' play does not approach that of elite wings, let alone legitmate atg paint protectors(gobert's shotblocking threat often deters multiple rim attempts in the same possession.) Jordan's "high activity" is not a bunch of game changing possessions, its a bunch of decent-good plays which on the aggregate, under a scheme and along personell perfectly catered to amplify his strengths and paper over his weaknesses, end up making up for a high volume mistakes.
​
So this begs the question, if Wings like Lebron and Pippen are signifcantly better at what is, by a country mile, the most valuable defensive skill, where exactly is Jordan making up value? Its not like Lebron is some one trick pony.
We've seen lebron, in down years atheletically, very effectively contain the likes of curry and derrick rose over a series. We've seen Jordan's teammate, Pippen do it to John starks, Dumar and Magic johnson. Both have had playoffs against elite offenses where the opposing team shoots 20 points better against their teammates as they do against them. Both have less defensive breakdowns than jordan does (from 88-93 83% of players in the nba commited less mistakes defensively than Jordan) and both have demonstrated the ability to perform under a wide variety of defensive schemes. Both are excellent POA defenders who can make it a nightmare to try and utilize passing lanes. If Jordan is blowing rotations and committing so many mistakes, where exactly is he making up value?
And yes, those breakdowns ;jordan haters' keep citing, ...do....matter.
https://i.imgur.com/PekfKnR.png
https://i.imgur.com/Snem7Qg.png
Kawhi didn't gamble as much as Jordan did and the spurs didn't need to have a bunch of switchable POA guys aggressively press opposing offenses. Incidentally, Kawhi's steals clearly improve the defense while Jordan's steals offer a marginal add in value. Why am I bringing up Kawhi? Because Lebron averages nearly as many steals as he does without high-risk defense. Somtimes, less is more.
But this is all talk, just because I tell you lebron is a better defender than Micheal Jordan on paper doesn't mean he's a better defender in practice. Indeed, if Lebron is truly a superior defender, it should be reflected in the results. So lets take a look:
The 08 cavs are the 11th ranked defense in the league. Lebron enters his prime(largely because of a massive defnsive upgrde) and they're the 3rd best defense in the league. The 09 cavs with lebron are the #1 defense in the league. Without him they're 18th. His dpipm that year, +3.3, is twice as close to dwight howard's as it is to 'elite defensive guards' like ben simmons and marcus smart. Lebron's playoff drapm is higher than kawhi despite a vastly longer playoff career(averages go down as you play more), and in 15 and 16, well past his atheletic peak, he's leading elite playoff defenses with--kevin love(well for one of those playoffs anyway), tristan thompson and matthew delledova. In what corresponds to Jordan's wizards years Lebron has a two year stint where defenses improve with him but not significantly. Then in 2020 in his 17th season of professional basketball, he's the second most valuable defender on the best playoff defense in the league.
In 86, The bulls are the worst defense in he leagueJordan wins dpoy in 88 on the 3rd best defense in the league. Next season oakley leaves and they're 11th. Next season they're 19th. Then in 91, wth Jordan getting worse at basically everything defensively(slower, less atheltic, less rim protection, more breakdowns) they become the 4th best defense in the league which curiosly coincides with...checks notes....Pippen and Rodman(but mostly Pippen) entering their prime. Jordan leaves in 93 and their defense is...basically unaffected. Per playoff drapm, Pippen is comparable to Kawhi in how much he improves his teams despite drapm only counting years past his peak.
Looking at induvidual data Ben's bpm, which he admits is the worst of his stats at accounting for defense ranks Jordan's three year playoff peak first, pipm which does a somewhat better job ranks him second, and then, when ben, specifcally citing that these stats struggle with defensive value, went ahead and calculated apm for the playoffs, he came in 9th.
It would seem Jordan, like basically every guard in history, had a limited affect on his team's defensive profiency. Lebron's defense on the other hand, seems to have a clear impact whereever he goes.
We need to stop using jordan's defensive accolades as evidence he was better than what he contributed. Jordan won dpoy because he led the league in steals and came second in blocks. I've already outlined jordan's relative lack of value in the paint, and his steals were
A. the result of a defensive scheme+pesonell that squeezed every ounce of value jordan had to offer and
B. came at a considerable cost (remember, Jordan commited more defnesive errors than 87 percent of the league)
Even if we disregard reputation as a factor, making the all-nba team as a guard does not mean you were better than a forward or center who didn't get recognized as all-nba. Even if Jordan was the greatest defensive shooting guard in nba history, being the biggest fish in a tiny pond does not change that the bigger fish are bigger.
Jordan could have been absolutely perfect in his role, and he wouldn't have come close to being a dpoy-calibre defender. Off course jordan was far from perfect. The idea that he shares parity as a defender with all time wings is absurd. Simply put, Lebron James is a signifcantly better defender than Micheal Jordan.
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And that brings Part 1 to a close!!!!
Next up, in part 2***--creation, scoring, holistics--***
Thanks for reading!

My date of abstinence is January 26, 2018.
SHORT NOTE: I grew up a Lakers fan and on this day, last year, I posted about my 2 year anniversary since my last bet (here is the post if you care to read https://www.reddit.com/problemgambling/comments/eu62q2/2_years_without_a_bet_settle_off_all_my_debts_a/), and a few hours later, it was reported that Kobe Bryant died. What a wild year it's been since then. RIP KB.
Now, for that "everlasting second".
Last month I started watching How I met your Mother. It's a REALLY good show, in my opinion. There's a scene in that show about an "everlasting second" and how time can sort of stand still. You see this in a movie where something catastrophic happens and the protagonist is just standing there in utter disbelief.
And I remember one of the last "sane" bets I ever made, it was during the College football Playoff. I say sane because, after this game, I ended up doing just $40, 10 team basketball parlays to try and get out of the whole I dug myself into. Anyway, I probably only had bet less than 5 games of college football ever before. Was never my cup of tea. But Oklahoma vs Georgia. and Alabama vs Clemson.
I was in ATlantic City the night before on New Years Eve with my wife and my brother and his wife. Maybe only lost a couple hundred bucks. Just pissed off st the night in general. Main reason, I was at the roulette table and had 200 dollars on 17. It’s NYE, the table was packed with people and the dealer wouldn’t spin the ball... must’ve waited about 6 minutes. Said fuck it and walked off the table. 17 hits. Anyway:
I probably only had $20,000 left in my bank account, payday was in a week and I have about 140-150K in debt. I must've deposited about half of that money that day. I had a parlay for Bama and Oklahoma to both win. I did a money-line parlay, because the Juice was better because Oklahoma was a 3.5 point dog and Bama was a 2.5 point favorite. I had about $2,000 on this parlay.
While the game is being played, I am depositing money into my gambling account and playing roulette. As I hit some spins during roulette, I'm taking those winnings and doubling down HARD on Oklahoma. And Oklahoma keeps playing from behind and I can just see the Juice growing and growing as I keep doubling down. CONVINCED Baker Mayfield is going to pull off the upset and make my winning multiply!
All in all, I probably have about 7-8K on the game by itself. The money I was depositing into my gambling account and playin roulette on, I'm actually kind of killing it. I'd put in 2K, win about 5K, put 3K of it on Oklahoma and then gamble the other 2K. Lose it, make another large deposit, until I had only 10K left in my bank account. If Oklahoma pulls this out, I’m probably going to have 25-30k in winnings.
I don’t remember much about that game. Except for an Oklahoma DEFENSIVE touchdown. But I do remember DOUBLE overtime. It's 4th and about 6, and Oklahoma attempts a field-goal. Georgia blocks it. Oklahoma is done. I know the game is over. And I’m sitting there. Frozen. I swear to God it felt like time stood still. I may have blacked out. I may have gone deaf. Like I can’t describe the feeling that I had when that kick was blocked. My TV was as loud as can be and I feel that I couldn’t hear a word coming out of the TV...
Few plays later Georgia scores a touchdown and i know my life is pretty much over. No money, no time to make any more money. Just everything being in flux and on top of that, my phone goes off and it’s my wife.
“I am getting ready to leave work soon.” She’ll be home in about 90 minutes.
25 days later I had to admit everything to my wife. Had I done it on that day, maybe things wouldn’t have gotten as bad as they did. It was really shitty for the first two weeks after I had to tell my wife everything.
In the end, had I told her sooner, obviously life would have been better. I’m grateful I have the wife that I do. She stood by me, we have a great life. Beautiful and healthy baby girl. I’ll say this to anyone who is reading a post on here for the first time to take this advice:
Reach out and talk to someone. If you “think” you have a problem, talk to someone. Make yourself vulnerable and you would be surprised by what the truth can do. Money comes and money goes. You can’t change yesterday, you can only focus on today.
Peace and love... peace and love.

The 2021 NBA Draft is considered to be a very deep draft with
-Elite talent at the top
-Potential all-star talent that goes deep into the lottery
-Versatile athletes that fit into how the league wants to play today, and going forward.
Many analysts & gamblers predicted that either the Pistons, Knicks, Cavs or Thunder are expected to finish with the one of the worst records in the league & could potentially win the #1 Pick in the Draft Lottery.

 Cade Cunningham, 6'8, 220 lb PG from Oklahoma State University 

Strengths - Has excellent size for a point guard. Listed at 6-foot-8, 220 pounds with a wingspan that exceeds 7 feet. Fluid athlete who plays at different speeds, passes and handles with both hands and plays a selfless style. Can bully smaller guards in the post. Difficult for bigger defenders to handle due to his shot-creation skill. - Outstanding physical tools defensively that allow him to cover guards, wings and bigs. Has excellent timing, feel and intensity. Likes to crash the glass aggressively and ignite the break on his own. Competitive and attentive off the ball. - Much improved shooter who confidently knocks down pull-up jumpers from midrange and 3. Excellent free throw shooter. Shows soft touch around the basket.
Improvement areas - Lacks a degree of explosiveness beating defenders from a standstill. Relies more on size and strength to get by opponents in the half court. - Struggles to score over length in traffic at times. Can he be efficient creating offense as a No. 1 option? - Plays for an Oklahoma State team that lacks much perimeter shooting and creation. Opponents are aggressive with double-teams intended to get the ball out of his hands. May not be able to show the full extent of his arsenal operating out of pick-and-roll.
Projected role: Big playmaker

 Evan Mobley: 7 foot, 215 lb Center from USC 

Strengths - Ideal physical profile for a modern big man. Outstanding coordination for his size. Quick off his feet. Explosive leaper in space. Finishes above the rim with ease. Lob threat. Tools make him a factor on the offensive glass. - Elite rim protector with great timing and a 7-4 wingspan. Rotates well from the weak side. Can step out and switch onto guards. Sound pick-and-roll defender who should be a major asset on the defensive end of the floor. - Modern skill set. Great hands. Has the touch and mechanics to knock down NBA 3s with regularity in time. Comfortable in midrange spots. Smooth handle and excellent passer with either hand. Should be able to play next to another center in certain lineups.
Improvement areas - Not a physical defensive rebounder. High center of gravity. Gets wedged out of position by stronger bigs. - Looks as if he's coasting at times. Incredible talent who leaves you wanting more for stretches. - Can he ever be a No. 1 or No. 2 scoring option on a great team? Doesn't have many ways to go get himself a bucket in the half court at this stage.
Projected role: Franchise center

 Jalen Green: 6'5, 172 lb Combo Guard from NBA G-League Ignite Select Team 

Strengths - Shifty, explosive guard. Has a rare extra gear changing speeds in the open court. Doesn't have glaring holes in his game that can't be fixed with added experience and polish. - Strong finisher with long strides, tremendous body control and nice creativity finishing around the rim with touch. Excellent scoring instincts. Has shown toughness and control in several high-profile settings. - Much improved perimeter shooter who shows glimpses of impressive shot-making prowess pulling up off the dribble with deep range.
Improvement areas - Isn't the biggest shooting guard around at 6-5 with a lean frame. Doesn't possess great length to compensate. - Plays an iso-heavy style that isn't always efficient. Relies heavily on his pull-up game, which can be streaky at times. Shows flashes as a creator but will need to prove he also makes others better, particularly operating with his left hand. - Defensive intensity fluctuated at the high school level. Gambles for steals. Doesn't always get over screens.
Projected role: Creating combo guard

 Jalen Suggs: 6'4, 205 lb PG from Gonzaga 

Strengths - Nice size for a lead guard at 6-4. Strong, compact frame. Powerful athlete. Finishes above the rim in space, especially off of two feet. Great body control. Embraces contact. Downhill driver who can change speeds. Great in transition. Active cutter who can play on or off the ball. - Mature decision-maker on the court with a great feel for the game. Unselfish hit-aheads in transition. Poised pick-and-roll passer who uses both sides of the floor. Rewards cutters and makes the extra pass to shooters. Takes care of the ball at a high level. - Tough defender who wants to defend the other team's best player. Great feet on the ball, dialed in off the ball. Excellent anticipation in the passing lanes. Will mix it up for rebounds.
Improvement areas - Streaky shooter. Sound mechanics and good balance but a career 27% from 3 on 190 attempts, according to our database. Nothing to suggest he won't become a reliable shooter, but the results just aren't there yet. - Not the most nuanced finisher. Relies more on power and two-foot explosiveness than finesse. Would benefit from adding a more reliable floater and additional deception around the rim. - Average wingspan relative to his height.
Projected role: Franchise point guard

 Jonathan Kuminga: 6'8, 220 lb Congolese Forward from NBA G-League Ignite Select Team 

Strengths - Has an ideal physical profile for a combo forward at 6-8, 225 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan. Possesses an outstanding frame and is explosive in the open court with an impressive combination of strength, quickness and fluidity. - Shows intriguing shot-making prowess, making 42 3-pointers in 19 Nike EYBL games. Has smooth mechanics and looks capable of making jumpers in a variety of ways, including off the dribble and even running off screens at times. - Has excellent defensive potential when engaged. Strong enough to defend big men but has quick-enough feet to stay in front of guards.
Improvement areas - Feel, decision-making and overall polish are works in progress. Not an efficient offensive player. Settles for the first shot he can find. Drives with his head down. Not the easiest teammate to play with. Needs to show he can impact winning when his pull-up jumper isn't falling. - Has tools and versatility but is a below-average defender at this stage. Competitiveness and intensity fluctuate. Relies too heavily on his length and athleticism. Technique off the ball leaves a lot to be desired. Has a tendency to stand around and gamble in passing lanes or bite wildly on fakes. - Has some questions to answer about his approach to the game. Body language leaves something to be desired, and he hasn't gotten much high-level coaching. Didn't show a great deal of progress with his feel for the game in his final year of high school.
Projected role: Two-way forward

 Jalen Johnson: 6'9, 220 lb Forward from Duke 

Strengths - Impressive combination of strength and explosiveness at 6-9, 220 pounds. Strong lower body. Plays with physicality. - Extremely versatile defender. Can shift anywhere from 1 to 5 in a pinch. Good instincts off the ball. Rotates for blocks and charges. Aggressive rebounder on both ends. - At his best pushing in the open court. Fluid ball handler for his size and crafty passer. Excellent straight-line driver who can change speeds.
Improvement areas - Rigid shooting stroke. Long release with mixed results. Doesn't have many ways to score in the half court outside of energy plays. - A bit predictable as a shot creator. Likes to catch, jab right, drive left. A little too turnover prone for a playmaker. - Not overly long relative to his height. Does he have enough offensive game to ever be more than a third or fourth option on a playoff team?
Projected role: Two-way combo forward

 Brandon Boston Jr.: 6'7, 185 lb G/F from Kentucky 

Strengths - Good dimensions for the wing at 6-7 with a near 7-foot wingspan. Fluid athlete who is at a very early stage of development physically. - Creative scorer who plays at different speeds smoothly. Has excellent body control, polished footwork, long strides and a natural pace operating out of pick-and-roll. Shows flashes of shot-making potential pulling up off step-backs and passing off a live dribble. - Physically weak but shows some toughness crashing the glass and getting in passing lanes.
Improvement areas - Weighs only 185 pounds. Has been slow to add bulk to his frame. - Has struggled to adapt to the physicality of the college game early, especially finishing in traffic and defending. Gambles excessively. Intensity comes and goes. - Still working on fine-tuning his ball-handling to create high-percentage looks around the rim. Lives off tough shots in the midrange. Deep ball hasn't fallen early in his college career. Has a tendency to hunt difficult attempts off isolation moves. Can be a reluctant passer at times.
Projected role: Shot-maker and secondary creator

 Ziaire Williams: 6'8, 185 G/F from Stanford 

Strengths - Tall, fluid wing at 6-8 with a 6-10.5 wingspan. Big reach. Light on his feet. Can finish above the rim in space. Changes speeds and directions comfortably. - Shows major shotmaking potential both off the catch and the bounce. Has the footwork to rise into pull-ups smoothly and can create space with step backs. Comfortable ball handler with great balance who can play pick-and-roll. Handle and shotmaking potential give him quite a bit of upside as a creator. Willing passer with strong court vision. - Strong off-ball defender who has good instincts in the passing lanes. Will rotate for blocks or charges.
Improvement areas - Rail thin at 185 pounds with narrow shoulders. How much will he fill out long term? Lack of strength limits him defensively and as a finisher. Toughness comes and goes in part because of his lack of physicality. Gets pushed around at times and caught on screens defensively. - Still finding the right balance between when to be aggressive and when to facilitate. Settles for contested jump shots far too often. Doesn't get to the free throw line. Needs to do a better job getting downhill. Will go long stretches without having much of an offensive impact and then take an out-of-rhythm jumper. - Relatively streaky shooter given his reliance on shotmaking. Confidence in his shooting comes and goes.
Projected role: Wing shot creator

 Keon Johnson: 6'5, 186 lb Guard out of Tennessee 

Strengths - One of the best athletes in college basketball. Powerful first step in the open court. Explosive accelerating from a standstill and getting off his feet for dunks and blocks. Frame is at an early stage of development but should fill out in time. - Aggressive, competitive prospect who maximizes his tools on both ends of the floor. Versatile defender who can stay in front of guards and wings. At his best sliding his feet and containing the point of attack. Generates plenty of turnovers with his instincts, quickness and activity level. - Shows flashes of playmaking, shot-making and feel for the game that indicate he has significant room for growth.
Improvement areas - At an early stage of development offensively. Lacks experience and polish in the half court. Ball-Handling, decision-making are a work in progress. - Frame is on the leaner side; he weighs 186 pounds. Will need to add bulk to be able to play through contact on both ends of the floor. - Pull-up jumper is slow and lacks accuracy under duress. Struggled from the free throw line earlier in his career.
Projected role: Two-way wing

 Scottie Barnes: 6'9, 227 lb Point Forward from Florida State 

Strengths - Excellent size and length for a modern forward at 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan and a strong frame. Has the tools to slide up and play some small-ball center in a pinch. - High motor defender who can defend 1 through 5 at the collegiate level. Regularly picks up point guards in the back court. Good technique on the ball. Crowds opposing guards and takes them out of their offense. Can switch every screen onto bigs. Active off-ball defender. - Mismatch facilitator with a great feel for the game. Plays point guard for FSU. Unselfish moving the ball ahead in transition. Comfortable ball handler. Fills in the gaps on offense. Keeps plays alive on the offensive glass.
Improvement areas - Unnatural shooting stroke with unproven results. Lack of floor spacing makes him a tough fit on the offensive end of the floor. Needs shooters around him at all times to make him most effective. - Limited all-around scorer in the half court. Doesn't have great touch or much to go to in his scoring arsenal. - Mobile for his size but lacking a degree of quickness and burst off the dribble. Plays below the rim in the half court. Not much of a leaper. Elite collegiate defender, but will he have the foot speed to lock up elite NBA wings?
Projected role: Two-way point forward

Gonzaga has started the 2020-21 College Basketball season hot by winning their first 15 games in a row, placing them as the number 1 team in the nation (as of January 24th). One of their most key contributors has been their freshman point guard, Jalen Suggs.
I've written a blog post about Suggs' early success over at ProspectPreviews.com with links and images, but I have also pasted all of the words from the post below if you don't want to click away.
https://prospectpreviews.com/jalen-suggs-draft/
Jalen Suggs plays with a rare combination of intelligence, athleticism and toughness. Using these attributes Suggs is able to be a force on both offense and defense. At 6 foot 4 Suggs is also capable of playing either guard position. In modern basketball this versatility is highly sought after. On offense Suggs has proven himself to be a strong, skilled and crafty finisher. He has also had a lot of success as a passer and playmaker, which is especially impressive due to the fact that he is playing alongside so many other ballhandlers. On the defensive end, Suggs has proven himself as a strong on-and-off-ball defender. This again reiterates his versatility, but this time on the other end of the floor.
One of the most interesting facts about Jalen Suggs is that he was ranked by ESPN as the 23rd best dual-threat quarterback in the 2020 recruiting class. Suggs had offers to play football for Ohio State and 4 other teams. This quarterback experience will serve him well as his decision-making and ability to take contact will be very useful in the NBA.
Physical Profile:
Jalen Suggs is commonly listed at 6 foot 4. This is a near perfect height for a point guard in almost any era of the NBA. Suggs uses his height to switch onto shooting guards and the occasional small forward. While not a freakish height for a point guard, this is still taller than the average lead guard, allowing Suggs to see and pass over shorter defenders.
Suggs uses his strong 205 lb frame to finish through contact on offense and to defend larger players on defense. If Suggs chooses to, his frame is large enough to add muscle to, or he can stay at a similar size to what he is now. This will depend on which team drafts him and the role he is expected to play. At his current weight he is certainly strong enough to finish over or through bigger players.
According to Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz of ESPN (and DraftExpress), Suggs’ wingspan exceeds 6’5. This is a solid wingspan for a point guard. Fortunately for Suggs, point guard is the position in which wingspans matter the least in the NBA.
Jalen Suggs is one of the most athletic players in the draft. He has the explosiveness to deliver crazy dunks. Suggs also possesses elite speed that should translate instantly to the NBA. Suggs has an innate and rare ability to completely shift speed while retaining full control of the ball.
Statistics:
As of the 25th of January, Jalen Suggs is averaging 13.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.3 steals and 0.5 blocks. He is achieving this while shooting 52% from the field, 34.9% from three, 60.2% for two and 73.2% from the free throw line.
Per 40 minutes Suggs is averaging 20.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 3.5 steals and 0.7 blocks per game.
Scoring:
13.9 points per game is solid for a freshman, but what makes this average more impressive is the fact that Suggs is averaging this as the third top scoring option on his number 1 ranked team. Due to the team having multiple scorers averaging double digit points, Suggs does not have as high a usage rate as other star freshmen. 60.2% from inside the arc reflects his elite ability to score at the rim.
Shooting potential:
Suggs has shown flashes of being a good shooter. His three point percentage has dropped as the season has progressed, but his free throw percentage has risen. At this stage this is a relatively positive sign. A high free throw percentage indicates a player has good shot mechanics and is usually the basis of their shot. While 73.2% from the free throw line is not overly impressive, it is very promising that it has risen up from the sixties. This improvement also is a good sign that Suggs possesses a very high work ethic.
Playmaking:
4.9 assists per game is very good for a player on a team full of multiple ballhandlers and an offense focused on ball movement. Suggs gets his assists through smart passes and unteachable court vision. In order to take the next step in his playmaking abilities, Suggs will need to improve his handle further and decrease his turnovers. Suggs is currently averaging 3.0 turnovers per game. This gives him an assist-to-turnover rate of only 1.63. While this is not a bad assist to turnover ratio, in order to become a great lead guard he will need to cut back on these turnovers.
Defense:
Suggs’ good defense is reflected in the stat sheet through his 2.3 steals and 0.5 blocks per game. Many of Suggs’ steals come from his good timing on intercepting passes. Some players gamble too much to get steals, but Suggs generally calculates when to intercept the ball very well.
Comparisons:
If I had to compare Suggs to an NBA player it would most likely be a young John Wall. While not a perfect comparison, they are both athletic point guards with great physical tools and passing abilities. While John Wall was more athletic and has a much longer wingspan, I would argue that Jalen Suggs has a higher basketball IQ and understanding of the game at the same age.
In Wall’s sole year at Kentucky he averaged 16.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.5 blocks per game. He averaged this while shooting 46.1% from the field, 32.5% from deep and 75.4% from the free throw line. The only real negative in Wall’s stats was his 4.0 turnovers per game.
When adjusted to per 40 minutes, Wall averaged 19.1 points, 4.9 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game. These are incredibly similar stats to Jalen Suggs. Suggs’ stats are slightly better per 40 minutes, however Wall played 8.2 minutes more per game making it hard to compare the stats directly.
If Suggs can continue to improve his shooting I believe that he has the potential to have a better career than Wall. While I don’t expect Suggs to have the same individual success of a prime John Wall, I believe that his style lends itself more to winning basketball.

As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.

BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT

(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia
Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law.
Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time.
It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency.
The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one.
best fits
Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two.
worst fits
If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively.
(2) C James Wiseman, Memphis
A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970?
Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5.
Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat.
Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center.
best fits
We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6).
worst fits
Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick.
(3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Another big man? I may be showing my age here.
Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker.
Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player.
While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.)
best fits
The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case.
worst fits
As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade.
(4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings)
Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter.
No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical.
At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status.
LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie.
So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks.
best fits
If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time.
worst fits
Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place.
(5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel
The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year.
In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5.
In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets.
best fits
If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential.
worst fits
I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there.
(6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions.
Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.)
Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot.
In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet.
best fits
Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them.
worst fits
You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10).
(7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State
One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards.
Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well.
Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA.
All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on.
best fits
The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes.
worst fits
Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent.
(8) PG Killian Hayes, France
If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited.
Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall.
Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection.
best fits
Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well.
worst fits
Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer.
(9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison.
Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players.
Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player.
best fits
Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers.
worst fits
It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.)
(10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect.
Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes.
Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering.
best fits
In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.)
worst fits
I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16).
(11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings)
When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5??
But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively.
We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead.
best fits
While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love.
worst fits
If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s.
(12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings)
We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it.
Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year.
To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick.
best fits
While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves.
worst fits
With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base.
(13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona
As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race.
In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends.
best fits
As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5.
worst fits
I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode.
(14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford
Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry.
That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James).
And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range.
best fits
If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench.
worst fits
Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player.
(15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia
We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans.
But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside.
Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat.
All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security.
best fits
If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild.
worst fits
Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane.
I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.

Hit piece on Darryl. Other GMs are altruistic, for the game and the players, would never trade a player to get ahead /s
Part 1: Daryl Morey, Rafael Stone, and the exploding Rockets “The single raindrop never feels responsible for the flood.” Dec 29
Below is the first half of a story just published to TrueHoop subscribers. To read the whole thing:
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By HENRY ABBOTT and YARON WEITZMAN
SportsCenter @SportsCenter James Harden was asked if he feels better about his situation with the Rockets now than he did before he arrived at camp.
"Next question." December 21st 2020
Daryl Morey changed NBA basketball by replacing fragile human assessments with something more calculated. He measured everything and ultimately valued different players, coaches, and styles of play—leading to many unusual bets. For the most part, time has proven him to be brilliant: His Rockets won more than 60 percent of their games and routinely made it deep into the playoffs.
If there has been a knock against Morey, it’s that he’s lucid on creating angles and closing deals, but a little blind on things like human feelings and building trust. It has long been discussed as a “lack of chemistry,” but to many who have lived it, the shortcoming feels more profound. “Daryl Morey” says one NBA source who has known him for more than a decade, “ruins lives.”
If there’s a “Game of Thrones” harshness to Morey’s Rockets tenure, it is coming full circle now on a team struggling to care enough about each other to function. Billionaire Tilman Fertitta has become the butt of jokes, and one person close to the team says he suspects they are on a path to become the worst team in the NBA. One of the team’s two best players from last season—Russell Westbrook—has already gotten himself traded. The other, James Harden, is making news almost daily for tearing at the fabric of the team by requesting a trade, breaking COVID rules, and reportedly throwing a ball at a young teammate. The team’s struggle with COVID protocols meant they are the only NBA team to date that couldn’t field sufficient players for a game—their season opener had to be postponed.
But there’s a deeper story of the Rockets’ infusion of callousness.
Daryl Morey moved to Houston in 2006, as the Rockets’ assistant GM. Like many well-to-do Houstonians, Daryl and Ellen Morey purchased a large house—theirs was near Buffalo Bayou, a drainage artery that runs away from reservoirs west of downtown. Then it started pouring. Eight to ten inches of rain flooded more than 3,000 homes in 2006. Hurricane Ike battered nearby Galveston and parts of Houston a couple of years later. In April 2009, several thousand more houses flooded, especially along Buffalo Bayou.
A house in a flood zone wants constant care and attention. Before the rain there is the upgrading and maintaining of pumps, valves, and drainage. The storms bring bouts of stress: sandbags, generators, power outages, and mucky cleanup. A few years in, the Moreys—hardly sentimental people—divorced houses altogether. They would face rain storms from a high rise in the Memorial City neighborhood. Once ubers became ubiquitous and readily available, Morey essentially quit cars, too—telling the Wall Street Journal driving was a poor use of his time. (Years later on the Rich Eisen show he explained, “I’m on my phone too much, it’s just too dangerous. For the sake of humanity.”)
And besides, many days Morey didn’t need a car at all. Another employee, general counsel Rafael Stone, lived nearby and was happy to drive Morey to work.
Morey and Stone got along fine. One Rockets employee at the time remembers them as “best friends.” In a recent Zoom press conference, Stone made a passing comment about Morey damaging his dash board with a foot on a morning commute. “Daryl and I are extremely different people,” Stone added. “We worked well together and became friends because we’re from very different perspectives but oftentimes ended up at the exact same point.”
One of Stone’s best friends, Andre Burrell, remembers Stone saying that “Daryl was really cool to him and took him under his wing, that he was getting all sorts of insights.”
Both were hired by then-team president George Postolos to bring a certain business acumen to a franchise that had long been defined by the well-liked but hardly cutting-edge Carroll Dawson.
A year into Morey’s time in Houston, Dawson was shuffled into a consultant role to make room for Morey to become general manager. It was an agreement Morey secured from then-team governor Leslie Alexander. The Rockets moved on from Dawson as easily as Morey moved on from houses and cars. That was another part of what fused Stone and Morey—an appreciation for the cold transactional nature of things. Many dream of running an NBA team. It’s a little cutthroat, at times.
Some college freshmen arrive at school unsure of what they want from their lives. Rafael Stone was not one of those kids.
Chris Jones first met Stone back in the fall of 1990. They were freshmen basketball players for Williams College, a Division III liberal arts school in leafy Williamstown, Mass. Even then, Jones—who would go on to live with Stone for three years—could tell that Stone was different. “Raf had his life planned out,” he says. “He was going to play basketball, then go to law school, then he hoped to one day be involved with an NBA team.”
Stone grew up in Seattle. His father was a corporate lawyer who had starred at point guard for the University of Washington. This was the path Stone intended to follow. He played the same position and had many of the same dreams. “He was very quick and very savvy,” says Robert Williams, another former teammate, roommate, and longtime friend, “and he looked to shoot first.”
He loved basketball, both playing and watching his hometown Sonics. He took the craft seriously but he spent most of his free time studying for his LSATs. He applied to the law schools at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale “because he wanted to get into the three best ones,” says Andre Burrell, another former roommate and longtime friend. All three schools accepted Stone. He chose Stanford. From there he landed a job at the New York City-based corporate law firm Dewey Ballantine.
Stone has remained in touch with his roommates in the three decades since. They communicate via text chains, monthly calls, and (like everyone else during the pandemic) Zoom sessions. His friends describe him as fiercely loyal, the type of person who, Jones says, “can come off a bit stand-offish at times, especially if you don’t know him, but once he brings you into his orbit, he’ll do anything for you.” For Jones, a story comes to mind, “one that gets to the heart of who Raf is.” Jones got married in 1999. The next day his in-laws held a reception at their home. The party lasted a few hours. After everyone left, Stone approached Jones’ mother-in-law. “He said, ‘Hey, I’d like to help clean this all up,’” Jones recalls. “Every time I bring up his name, they talk about that.”
Burrell recalls a different story, one he believes shows that Stone was always destined for a high-profiled gig. A few years after Stone had joined Dewey Ballantine, both he and Burrell were in Ohio for an event. They went out for drinks one night and, as these things often go, used the time to discuss their respective futures and careers. “He was always really ambitious,” Burrell says, and that night he recalls Stone talking about how he “wanted something different, that he wanted more.” Stone wound up making partner in 2005, at the age of 32. A week later, according to The Houston Chronicle, he quit. The Rockets had offered him the position of general counsel. He called his friends to share the news. “He said it was the chance to live his dream,” Jones says.
To Alexander and Postolos, Morey offered vastly more strategic thinking. Much has been made of Morey’s role in basketball’s analytics revolution—leading to an emphasis on 3-pointers and identifying undervalued players from Shane Battier to P.J. Tucker. The team made a lot of trades and won a lot of games.
In baseball, the appearance of advanced analytics is called “Moneyball.” It’s about a lot of things—seeing the strike zone, fielding with range—but, no surprise, it’s also about money. Morey entered the NBA as a consultant, advising Celtics ownership on the bottom line. His annual conference takes place at MIT’s business school. A lot of the panels are about maximizing ticket revenue or gambling analytics.
NBA lifers who grew up in gymnasiums are aware that, as a boss, Morey is thinking deal-first. Many serious basketball professionals have felt swept aside by the floodwaters of Morey’s strategy.
Morey’s crowning Rockets accomplishment was to collect sufficient picks and players to land James Harden in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Instead of tanking, the Rockets stayed competitive while scraping together trade assets through years of incremental moves that have been compared to those of a Wall Street arbitrage trader. Instead of commodities, though, the Rockets were dealing people, not all of whom relished the process. FiveThirtyEight reports that, over his time running the Rockets, Morey made more trades than any GM (other than his longtime deputy Sam Hinkie, who went on to run the 76ers).
Morey’s very first trade was for Jackie Butler and a pick. The pick became Luis Scola, a great Rockets success story. But Butler was cut before playing a game and never played again. Like every NBA player, he has feelings and an agent. There were many Jackie Butlers. Morey sent 72 players packing over his tenure.
One rival executive says he has come to avoid calling Morey with trade offers, for fear they will leak to the media. Public pressure might help Morey gain leverage to complete a deal. But the leverage comes at the expense of upsetting both organizations’ stability as players, agents, coaches, and families stress about the future.
At some point, Morey figured out a money-saving trick: Almost every NBA coach has a contract that ends in June. That’s when coaching staffs tend to be built for the upcoming season, and that’s when an in-demand assistant like Elston Turner or Jeff Bzdelik might become expensive thanks to the magic of competing offers.
Morey’s solution? Rockets assistant coaches were given deals that ended in August, when the rest of the league’s coaching jobs were filled. With nowhere else to go, they didn’t bargain too hard.
Last season, Rockets coaches did some back-of-the-envelope calculations and came away believing they were perhaps the 29th- or 30th-highest paid staff.
Morey, it has been reported, made $8 million a year by the end of his time in Houston.
The Rockets and their fans once romanticized Hakeem Olajuwon or Tracy McGrady. For a while, in the Morey years, it seemed like the new administration would substitute Shane Battier as a favorite. In 2009, Michael Lewis published the essential story of basketball’s Moneyball revolution, called the “no stats all-star,” about Battier. Battier’s geeky mind was a godsend to Morey. Unlike most players, Battier loved Morey’s fat packets of stats and used the intelligence to become a defender who knew all the percentages.
Battier solved the essential conundrum of the advanced stats revolution: How do you get the players on board? “It’s so great having Shane on the team,” Morey said in the aisle of one of his early conferences. They talked about everything. When Ron Artest was new to the team, Battier was the one who advised Morey about how to talk to him.
The forward came to be so associated with advanced analytics that by the time of the 2011 conference, a giant image of Battier (in a Rockets uniform, guarding Kobe Bryant) was the backdrop of the conference’s main stage.
What made it less romantic was that not two weeks before the conference, Morey had traded Battier to the Grizzlies for some draft picks and Hasheem Thabeet.

I just finished listening to the first episode of Barstool Bench Mob and wanted to get some discussion and thoughts from everyone. This is coming from the perspective of a pretty hardcore college basketball fan that consumes some barstool content but not a lot:

1. I actually thought they were just about the right level of depth. This is more of a listener preference but I don't like sports podcasts that go too deep into Xs and Os (think Zach Lowe) so I like that they keep things relatively high-level (discussing mainly top teams, and discussing mainly the top 1-2 guys on those teams)
2. I haven't really heard Jake Marsh much but I'm a fan. He isn't the funniest guy in the room but he provides insight necessary to keep the other 2 knuckleheads from getting too far out of control with dumb opinions and claims.
3. Mush stinks as expected. I will say I think he has a good chemistry with the other 2 from a jokes and jabs perspective. Pod would certainly be better without him.
4. Will be interested to see how this works during the season with Thursday pods (assuming late Wednesday taping?). I'm not sure if books usually have lines for Saturday games at that point so not sure how they'll be able to cover the gambling aspect. I thought today for conferences they should have made picks for conference champions using odds.
5. Another big question for me: What caliber guests will they be able to get? None of them are in the same stratosphere as a Big Cat / PFT / Pres etc. who could start a new pod and instantly get some big names to come on. I don't want to hear from the 5th best player on some random ass P5 team. Also do any of the 3 have the capability to make interviews fun?

Overall I'll give it a 6/10. It's not a pod I'm going to be looking forward to like Pick 'Em but it's good enough for me to give a listen each week.

I’ve been watching and loving basketball for a long time. My first word was ball, and my parents have a picture of me making my first basket on a little tykes hoop around age two. Until I was in 7th grade, I truly figured I would make the NBA because I was better at basketball than my friends. I told everyone I'd be like a 9th man kind of guy. Matt Bonner perhaps. Middle School crushed that dream. I’m not so old, but it’s been about 20 years of obsessive NBA fandom. From an early love of the 2000 New York Knicks, to an obsession with Gilbert Arenas, and nerding out over everything from Marc Gasol pick and roll defense to LeBron James handshakes, this has been my life.
I’m also a big reader. I’ve loved reading since I was a kid as it was one of my parents big priorities (my mother briefly worked for a bookstore). I love Non-Fiction, and am a major proponent of novels (fiction is generally not nearly emphasized properly around the world these days. Bring Back Fiction). When I was younger I wrote the first two pages of a novel about Latrell Sprewell saving the world by choking out a bad guy. In my book, he was losing air or something. It was an objectively dumb idea. I got bored of writing it after like 2 pages. Turns out I hate writing. Though I still have an idea for an anthropomorphized Toaster that toasts people alive and yells hibachi. If anyone wants to run with that, feel free.
As you can imagine, I’ve read quite a few books about basketball in my day. Novels, Biographies, Topic specific pieces, exposes. Even a random Jordan hit piece or two. I wanted to share my love for basketball books combined with my obsession with ranking shit, so I am making this post to give a quick ranking of my favorite basketball books in 3 separate categories that I find particularly compelling. If you are of any age and want to read some great books, you can use this as a good place to start.
I’m going to make 3 short lists.
*Topic Specific Books*. The books will pick a subject and delve into it. Think The Dream Team. These will be judged on topic, writing, story, interesting info, and the level of new information we got in the book.
*Young Adult Novels* I adore young adult novels AND I’ve re read most of them since my initial reading. So for all the 10-14 year olds on here, these books are amazing and can help you get into reading if that’s something you’re struggling with. And if the book is on this list, it means I think it holds up and adults/pseudo-adults/folks masquerading as adults will enjoy reading it as well.
*More General Basketball Books* Think The Book of Basketball. This category will be about more foundational books that don’t cover any singular topic.
One category I did not include here that is really prevalent in the basketball book world: Books about coaching, both technical and abstract. There’s tons of good ones, but it’s just not my forte so I’m passing on it. I've done a bit of (INSANELY LOW LEVEL) coaching and a couple of these were fascinating for that, but a bit less generally interesting.
Reminder: I’ve read a bunch of books, but also I haven’t read a bunch of books, and am excited for folks to comment on this with disagreements and favorites that I haven’t read! You’ll never read them all.
**Last disclaimer: I’m a person. I have bias. There are authors I gravitate to because I love their style who are disproportionately represented here. Just wanted to name it. Looking at you Jack McCallum and John Feinstein.**
**THE FIVE BEST YOUNG ADULT NOVELS ABOUT BASKETBALL:**
Honorable Mentions: Summer Ball- Mike Lupica, On the Devil's Court - Carl Deuker

1. Hoop City - Scott Blumenthal

This novel is the one with the youngest targeted audience on this list. It follows Tony and Mike Hope, two brothers from Harlem, who play point guard and shooting guard and have plans to go to college, and make the NBA. Everything changes when a shooting at a party paralyzes Mike from the waist down. The story follows Tony’s journey as he tries to make the NBA and his struggle with his brother’s tragedy and making his mother proud. Absolutely excellent spotlight on street ball and the many parks in NYC that are hotbeds of the game. The author is excellent at touching on some really serious emotions of imposter syndrome, disability, and adversity. Not to mention violence.

1. The Absolutely True Diary of a Part Time Indian - Sherman Alexie

This is the only one of this list that isn’t strictly a basketball book, but wow it’s really damn good. It’s by Indigenous American author Sherman Alexie about a high schooler who lives on a reservation, and instead of going to the local high school, he attends the off-reservation rival public school. He ends up making the varsity basketball team. It’s an excellent spotlight on Indigenous reservations, modern Native American life and its intersection with basketball. This is a beautiful display of representation and a strong story. I’d recommend it for your high school students/middle schoolers as the beginning age boundary.

1. Slam - Walter Dean Myers

Walter Dean Myers could’ve had like 5 books on this list but this is, in my opinion, his best. It follows a high school player named Greg "Slam" Harris, and his best friend Ice, and explores basketball, blackness, race and systemic racism, New York city diversity programs packaged in an excellent high school story that questioned our conceptions of talent and the racially charged nature of the criticism’s around showboating. It also does a phenomenal job of asking where friendships need to draw a line, drugs, personal life and personal expression. Also this book celebrates dunking for a bunch of it, which is always a plus in my book (pun unintended but welcomed).

1. The Last Shot - John Feinstein

Feinstein’s first young adult novel was a hit. It follows two young teen aspiring basketball journalists who win a trip to the Final Four, and stumble upon the story of a century. The characters are incredibly endearing, if a bit cheesy, and Feinstein gets the ok from a myriad of real figures, from the “hated” Coach K, to Tony Kornheiser, to a myriad of others to be featured as characters in the book. He pokes fun at all of them. Seriously, there's like, a whole scene where Tony Kornheiser is demanding a hotel suite and asking the bellhop “Do you know who I am??” This book secretly teaches the reader a hell of a lot of college basketball history, packaged in a terrific young adult thriller, and engages with gambling and extortion. It helps ask the question, what part of this is actually amateur?

1. Travel Team- Mike Lupica

The Gold Standard. One of Lupica’s two best young adult sports books (Heat I can’t recommend enough), Travel Team follows young, undersized point guard Danny Walker, son of an alcoholic ex-NBA father, and an awesome single mother, and his friends and bully’s. The characters are middle schoolers, and are the overwhelming strength of this book that is great for 5th graders and up, but honestly is excellent at all ages. I read it all in a day this past weekend. The characters, both protagonists and antagonists are beautifully written, and the story is heart warming while having real mistakes and high stakes. If you’ve ever rooted for the lovable underdog, this is for you.
**THE 7 BEST TOPIC SPECIFIC BOOKS ABOUT BASKETBALL - Non Fiction**
Honorable Mentions: 7 Seconds or Less - Jack McCallum. (A year with the 05/06 Suns.) The Legends Club - John Feinstein (A Look at the Rivalry between Dean Smith, Jimmy V, and Coach K and the Three North Carolina Powerhouses) A Season on the Brink- John Feinstein (Following Bob Knight and the 85/86 Hoosiers) Tuff Juice: My Journey from the Streets to the NBA -Caron Butler and Steve Springer (Caron’s autobiography. If you don’t know his story, it’s... wild.)

1. Shooting Stars - Buzz Bissinger and LeBron James

This book isn’t quite as good as the others, but holy hell is it fascinating in content. The book, which functions as a LeBron Biography follows him from birth until he arrived in the NBA. LeBron, who's entire life and career is pretty much Oscar bait, gives insight after insight. The book focused in particular on his high school years (The movie, More than a Game was based on this. And, unrelated, The Drake song Forever’s music video which was for this movie was based on that book as well. Also, go watch the music video for Forever, because 1. It’s an amazing song where 4 elite rappers absolutely snap, particularly Eminem who had been criticized for not going on posse tracks with other elite rappers, and came back from the dead to steal the show, and 2. LeBron is playing online poker at the beginning of the video. I’m still not sure why and it makes me laugh every time. Is the implication that he has enough money to play online poker? Is that an effective flex? What's happening here??) and his Saint Vincent Saint Mary squad. Everyone should read the chapter on LeBron’s decision to spurn the typical high school choice and go with his childhood friends to the nearby private school. It’s absolutely fascinating as it foreshadows his move to the Heat which happened a year after this book's release. The thought process can be clearly traced to this moment. Buzz Bissinger, author of Friday Night Lights, does a fantastic job.

1. Last Dance: Behind the Scenes at the Final Four - Feinstein

An absolutely wonderful deep dive into the Final Four and March Madness, it’s history, it’s present, endless stories and anecdotes you haven’t heard, excellent access, and a phenomenal scatterbrained style typical of Feinstein. You want to learn about the NCAA Tournament? This is the book for you. This book was released in 2005, when Marvin Williams put back such a sick dunk that the PG needy Hawks were like, "Nah who needs Deron Williams or Chris Paul, this dude's a monster". But more notably, the next years tournament is the George Mason year, and the "Afterward" of the book is a lovely short spotlight on Mason's run which is still so damn magical.

1. Hoop Dreams - Ben Javorsky

The book version of the famous documentary, it follows two high end Chicago Area high school prospects in Will Gates and Arthur Agee as they navigate going to a school outside the inner city where they grow up, and the challenges and toxicity facing high end high school basketball recruits. There’s also one insanely fascinating passage about teen pregnancy, which is so damn interesting that I won't spoil for you. This story is crazy famous and worthwhile reading for anyone with interest in high school basketball.

1. The Jordan Rules - Sam Smith

If you watched The Last Dance, which I hope you did, you know about this expose/hit piece that rocked the basketball world, and many say pushed Jordan away from the media for good in terms of a lack of trust. I’ll leave it at that since this one is famous as well, and is on this list as much for importance as it is for quality. But that 90-91 Bulls season is a damn whirlwind.

1. When the Game was Ours - Jackie MacMullan

Get to know Larry Bird and Magic Johnson and their rivalry like you never have before. Their battles, friendship, stories and anecdotes are beautiful and written in such an absolutely engrossing manner. It’s impossible to put it down and makes you fall in love with the two of them all over again. Plus, if you don’t already know, Larry Bird is the number one player of all time in the category of “How cool are the stories opponents and teammates tell about him, because Christ, that dude is so damn good and talks so much shit.”

1. Let Me Tell You a Story - Feinstein

John Feinstein gets invited to weekly lunches with Red Auerbach and the man tells stories about Auerbach and the Boston Celtics that are like nothing you’ve ever heard before. When you read it, you feel like you’re sitting in the room with Red and you never want to leave. It’s like if you were sitting with your grandfather and just let him go off on every topic imaginable, except your grandfather was the foundational coach at the NBA. A highlight is his telling of the Bill Russell trade.

1. The Dream Team- Jack McCallum

What else? Endless anecdotes, endless drama, endless characters. Jack gets Jordan, Charles, and the rest of them absolutely perfectly. The Dream Team was larger than life, and Jack waited to write this book until he was able to secure interviews from everyone needed, including Bird who rarely gives interviews like these. An extraordinary collection of stories and some of the best writing about the famous greatest game ever played, the scrimmage in the days before the Olympics began. Also, Charles Barkley’s chapter is incredible, both stories wise, as well as the reverence the other players had for prime chuck.
**THE THREE BEST BASKETBALL BIG PICTURE BOOKS**
Honorable Mention: Basketball (and Other Things)- Shea Serrano. He’s the most entertaining writer in the business, the illustration by Arturro Torres is exceptional and the book is absolute nonsense.

1. Sacred Hoops: Spiritual Lessons of a Hardwood Warrior - by Hugh Delehanty and Phil Jackson

I like to say it’s barely a basketball book in any way. It’s Phil Jackson, intentionality and a way of life. Phil waxes on mindfulness and meaning, while drawing on his experience as maybe the most successful basketball coach in the history of the game. He also manages to only seem like, kind of pretentious which is a huge win for Phil. Some really incredible insight on life from Phil. It’s about basketball and about coaching, but it’s really about life.

1. The Book of Basketball - Bill Simmons

Maybe a controversial pick, but once upon a time, Bill Simmons really did follow basketball. Sure he’s an annoying homer, but he’s a damn good writer, an entertaining personality, and this book boils down to every discussion you’ve ever had with your friends about basketball given the attention they deserve. It’s extremely influential (even if some of it hasn’t aged so well) and absolutely a fantastic read. The Hall of Fame pyramid concept has stood the test of time. And if you can get over the fact that he hates Wilt Chamberlain, this book can be an extraordinary transition for casual fans who want to take it to the next level, or nerds wanting to learn more.

1. FreeDarko Presents: The Macrophenomenal Pro Basketball Almanac: Styles, Stats, and Stars in Today's Game

This book is the foundation of what I believe about basketball. Written in 2008, and derived from the Basketball internet nerd Famous FreeDarko blog, it celebrated players uniqueness, argued that winning isn’t the only thing that matter, treasured style, and blended pop culture and informal writing into basketball paving the way for the Zach Lowe’s and Shea Serrano’s that have come since.
I can’t say enough about this book. If you believe that the NBA is more than stats, players, winning, but is instead all of those things combined with humanity, style, beauty, drama, hilarity, and a cast of characters that rivals any other institution on earth, this book should be required reading.
Alright,
That’s all I got. I wish I could’ve written about 30 more books that I had to leave out. I’m sorry for forcing John Feinstein and Jack McCallum on you. Hopefully you’ve found at least one book that you are going to check out from your local library (SUPPORT LIBRARIES!).
And would love to hear everyone else’s favorites as well!

The NBA Finals are about to start, but there are now 28 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, watch LeBron, and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Denver Nuggets.
step one: peaking at the right time
It doesn't take a basketball expert or even an enthusiastic amateur on reddit to know: this Nikola Jokic fella is pretty darn good. He's made two All-NBA teams already, and he's still only 25 years old. By the time the dust settles on his career, he may end up being one of the top 10 international players of all time.
Of course, even great players need some help to reach the promised land. Based on what we've seen this postseason, you have to feel more confident about that aspect as well. PG Jamal Murray had been one of the best players in the playoffs, averaging 26.5 points and hitting 45.3% from three.
Going forward, it'll be interesting to see if Murray can carry that breakout through the regular season. While pundits like Kenny Smith called him a "perennial All-Star," he's never actually made the All-Star team. To be honest, he's never been all that close either. Despite being in the league for 4 seasons now, he's never averaged more than 18.5 points and never averaged more than 4.8 assists. Perhaps this postseason has fueled his confidence and his greenlight to become one of the top scorers in the game.
Again: let's emphasize the perhaps there. I wouldn't necessarily bet on Murray to put up monster raw numbers a la Damian Lillard. For one, he defers a lot to Jokic as a playmaker, so it'd be harder for him to rack up huge assist numbers. Secondly, Murray doesn't get to the line very often -- only 3.1 FTA per game -- which lends itself to more inconsistency night in and night out. Unless he changes that aspect, it'll be hard for him to push past 24 PPG on a regular basis.
In some ways, Jamal Murray is starting to remind me of Kyrie Irving. They're both scoring guards who are among the best "tough shot" makers in the game. Neither one draws a ton of contact or free throw attempts -- which limits their raw totals in the regular season. Still, their games translate well to a playoff setting where you need to be able to break down and score against tougher halfcourt defenses. If Murray can continue that quality, then it won't matter if he's an All-Star or not. Denver has graduated past regular season worries; their focus now is entirely on the playoffs and a championship pursuit.
step two: if need be, overpay for a PF again
When the Denver Nuggets were a young and rising team, they pulled the trigger on a massive contract for PF Paul Millsap (around $30M a year.) It may have been an "overpay," but the timing made sense. The Nuggets had cap space to spend before they had to officially dole out extensions for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. "Use it or lose it." Overall, Millsap may not have been worth $30M on his own, but his defense and professionalism turned out to be a major key to helping the team take the next step. In that sense, it was money well spent.
The Nuggets find themselves in a similar circumstance this offseason -- albeit for different reasons. The extensions for Jokic ($29M) and Murray ($29M) have both kicked in, meaning the Nuggets won't have much cap space for the foreseeable future. Since they're capped out, they can't go out on a spending spree and they can't go looking for big free agents. Instead, they're going to have to look within and toward their own internal free agents.
And as far as their own free agents go, there are more than a few. The biggest name will be Paul Millsap, but the hottest name will be fellow PF Jerami Grant (expected to turn down his $9M player option.) Grant had a great playoff run, hitting open threes and running around like a Tasmanian devil on defense. While he couldn't stop LeBron James, he's the only one on the team who even stood a chance. Losing Grant would be a difficult pill to swallow, especially in an NBA that features superstar forwards like LeBron, Kawhi Leonard, etc. Given their cap situation, there's really no reason to let Grant leave either. Sure, he'll be expensive. Sure, you'll go into the luxury tax. But this is the time to do that -- when your team is on the verge.
The other free agents will be tougher decisions. Millsap would be nice to retain, but only at a reasonable and severely reduced price. Backup center Mason Plumlee got roasted for his bad defense on that one Anthony Davis game winner, but he's still a good rotational player. It'd hurt the depth of the team to lose him. Swingman Torrey Craig is a solid defender and mediocre offensive player, but he's someone that coach Mike Malone trusted for 27 starts this year.
I'd probably rank their importance in that order -- Grant, Millsap, Plumlee, Craig. Retaining all four may be difficult, so the team should treat Jerami Grant as a priority and treat the others as luxury items. In an ideal world, you'd retain Grant and one of the two veterans (Millsap or Plumlee). Personally I don't think rookie Bol Bol is as close to being ready for 20 minutes a night as most of reddit does, so that frontcourt depth shouldn't be ignored. If the team thinks Noah Vonleh (also a FA) can give them 10-15 minutes a night that may be a cheap solution, but he got buried by the Nuggets this year so it's hard to imagine they're big fans.
step three: come to Michael Porter Jr.'s defense
One of the reasons that re-signing Jerami Grant may be a necessity is the concern about Michael Porter Jr.'s defense.
Although MPJ is still only a rookie, it's been a roller coaster career for him already. In high school, he had been seen as a potential top 3 pick -- the next Kevin Durant / Carmelo Anthony scoring machine. Back injuries derailed him in college and in his first season as a pro. Then suddenly, he looked back to normal in the bubble, lighting it up and looking the part of a future All-Star. Back down we go. Before long, teams started to realize and exploit his limitations on defense, relegating him to a bench role again.
Where do we go from here? Up or down? Down or up? It's hard to tell. The offensive talent is undeniable, but the defensive issues are a legitimate issue. I've heard some people dismiss his problems as inexperience, but it may go deeper than that.
Growing up, we tend to hear the old cliche that defense is all about "effort!" As adults, we've learned that's not entirely true. So much of your defensive ability is related to your athletic ability. Your wingspan, your change of direction ability. If you can't pivot your hips, you're going to struggle to read and react. (There's a reason why white dudes tend to be bad defenders, bad dancers, and bad NFL cornerbacks.)
Michael Porter Jr. has the size (6'10" with 7'0" wingspan) to be a good defender, but the hips are the issue for him right now. It may be directly related to the back injuries in the past, but he looks very stiff when he tries to change direction. To be fair, Porter is still working his way back to 100% health. If he can get there, maybe this won't be an issue at all. But if it's something that's going to plague him, then the Nuggets will need to adjust accordingly. They're going to need to pair him with good defenders like Jerami Grant, and they may need to stagger him and Nikola Jokic more than they'd like.
It'd be a shame if Porter can't get back to form on defense, and it'd be a shame if injuries limit him in the future. Clearly, we can see the massive potential he has on the other end. He averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes this year -- as a rookie. If this is just the beginning for him, then the league's in a lot of trouble. If it's just a mirage and a fleeting moment of health, then the Nuggets will have to work harder to get to the next level.
step four: find the right wings to take flight
As great as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray may be, they're not LeBron James. They're not Kevin Durant. And unless you have one of those transcendent players, it's difficult to win an NBA title. You basically have to nail every other aspect of the roster. No weak links allowed.
The Denver Nuggets don't have weak links necessarily (their depth is strong overall), but the fence isn't the sturdiest on the block either. Primarily, I'm thinking about the wing position (SGs, SFs, etc.)
This postseason, the Nuggets played without an injured Will Barton, and had Gary Harris returning from injury himself. All in all, it's impressive that they got as far as they did despite not being at full strength. Still, you wonder if the Harris - Barton combo is good enough to get them over the top even when they're healthy.
Gary Harris is the biggest concern right now. A few years ago, he looked like a future stud who justified his high-priced extension. Now...? That contract's looking like an overpay (at $19M + $20M remaining.) Harris has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. Over the last two seasons, he's shot 34% and 33% from three respectively. He hardly ever gets to the line either. That's a bad combination that explains the below-average TS% of 53% and 52% over the last two years. Defensively, Harris has solid fundamentals and effort but he's limited in terms of overall size at 6'4". That's a problem in a league dominated by giant wings.
Perhaps Gary Harris gets fully healthy and gets back to form, but I'm skeptical. "Pretty good" is not good enough. Gary Harris, Will Barton, Torrey Craig -- we need something more. We need something better. If I ran the Nuggets, I'd float Harris and others in trade packages. Harris still has a solid reputation, so there's a chance that you can sell him off on a team that feels like he'll bounce back. I wouldn't treat him as a toxic asset, but I'd look for an upgrade if possible. Harris + the # 22 pick may lend itself to that. If Indiana and Victor Oladipo are heading for divorce, perhaps the Nuggets could swoop in as a landing spot.
Ultimately, Denver may be faced with a choice. Right now, they're good. They're good enough to win a round or two in the playoffs in any given year. But to make the Finals? To win the title? They need another LEAP. And that LEAP may come down to two potential lanes. Do you trust that Michael Porter Jr. will stay healthy, fulfill his destiny, and become your third All-Star caliber player? Or do you cash in some of these chips and try to find one on the trade market instead? Gary Harris alone may not get it done, but Gary Harris PLUS Michael Porter is an awfully appealing trade chip. It may be enough to bring in an All-Star like Bradley Beal. At the same time, maybe Porter can be that guy himself. It's hard to tell from the outside, and it may even be hard to tell from the inside. Alas, these are the kinds of million dollar questions that come with the territory of being in contention.
previous offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NYK, ORL, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA