I want to get back to betting when sports returns. With Baseball though, do you think it's better to bet the moneyline though or the -1.5?

Preface
Let's take a quick journey back to March, when the absence of major-market sports caused degens everywhere to turn to betting Korean Baseball, Madden Sims, and even weather markets to get their gambling fix. Among these, Russian Table Tennis emerged from the depths of the motherland, becoming popular on books of all sizes.
Nobody knows much about these games. Are Russia Liga Pro games fixed? Probably. Personally, I theorize that the games aren't necessarily fixed, but that each night, the Russian Mafia feeds winning players while the others watch. Why else would they be motivated to try? The league has no playoffs and no apparent prizes for top performers.
The games feature players from apparent grandpas with white hairs and knee braces to young boys who hardly look old enough to drive. They are played in a small room with tarped walls, with only the scorekeeper and players in view. The league is practically made to be bet on, and with over 100 twenty minute games a day, there's plenty of opportunities for aspiring degenerates to get the rush of gambling without sitting through 90-minute soccer matches and three hour-long tennis matches.
Now, why should you take advice from me? I've maintained about a 78% record on my Russian TT picks, and have doubled my bankroll multiple times over. I've been banned from a few books for "sharp action," and had my table tennis limited on others. Feel free to PM me to get access to the discord where I post all my picks for free ;) But enough of that, let's talk about my betting strategy.
Step 1: Narrow Down the Slate
Before you even sign in to your book, I recommend narrowing down the upcoming games within the next ~3 hours on Flashscore. Don't worry about the odds at this point, simply pick the games that stand out to you. Go down the list, and click on each game to view the stats for the matchup. When you see a game you like, simply click the checkbox next to it and it will be added to the "My Games" section for easier access. When looking for games to bet on, I look for two main criteria. In order of importance:

• Head to Head Results - This is my most important criteria when selecting games to bet on. In most cases, I only take games where one opponent is clearly dominating the H2H category. I look for games where one player has won AT LEAST 4 of the last 5 games head to head, and preferably at least 8 of the last 10 games head to head. As a rule of thumb, if the recent H2H look solid but the longer-term head to head is split between the players, avoid betting that game. If there are less than five previous meetings between the players, I recommend avoiding the game. Remember, we want to bet high-probability games to beat the house edge. If you are unsure about a matchup, avoid it. There are plenty of other games to bet on, so don't force it. Here is an example of a game with a great H2H record. Molodstov has won all five of the recent meetings, and nine of the previous ten. Here is an example of a game with a bad H2H record. While Poletaev has an advantage having won six of the previous ten meetings, Nikiforov has won three of the most recent five. Avoid betting on games like these!
• Overall Form - Once you've checked off the head to head category, check out the players' recent non-H2H games. Look at their most recent ten matches rather than just the previous 5. If their form is mostly similar, such as this example where both have a similar number of wins in their previous ten, then the bet meets the criteria. Another possibility is that the player that has dominated in H2H is in significantly worse form than their opponent, such as here. In this situation, avoid betting the game. The best-case scenario is when the player who has dominated H2H is in significantly better form than their opponent, who may have a losing record over the previous ten or be on a losing streak. In this example, Kutuzov has dominated head to head, and is in significantly better form than Migalov, who is on a 10 game losing streak. We would take action on Kutuzov here. As a rule of thumb, never bet on a player on a 5+ game losing streak to win, and vise versa.

Go through the slate and look for games that meet these two criteria. Don't worry about the odds at this step, simply short-list the games you'd like to bet!
Step 2: Making the Bets
Once you have your shortlist, it's time to place your bets. One important thing to keep in mind is that it's perfectly fine to take a juiced line to get a bet you're perfectly confident in. Often times, I play lines that are as low as -270 to get a moneyline bet that I like. When we're betting heavy favorites, your win percentage should be at least 70% to stay consistently profitable. I typically bet 2 units on most straight plays, though you can play around with your unit size to see what works best for you. Consistency is key!
Often times, you will find that the lines on the games you've picked simply have too low odds. In this case, don't give up on it yet! There are a few strategies you can use to still take action on these games while not having to risk a significant amount. Keep in mind, not all books will offer these options. Bovada is one of the worst books to use for table tennis! Bet365 is my favorite, as they have the most options for action beyond only moneyline bets.

• Parlay Favorites - You can parlay two of your selections together to get it down to very good odds, and often times even plus-value odds! Some books will only allow you to parlay games from the same league (Liga Pro), others will only let you parlay from separate leagues (ex. 1 game from Setka Cup, 1 game from Liga Pro). If your book lets you parlay Table Tennis, you have a great tool at your disposal, use it! If you usually bet 2U on your straight bets, I recommend betting only 1.5 on parlays, as you are spreading the risk over two games instead of one, even if they are heavy favorites.
• Play -1.5 Sets - Be careful with this one! Most books will let you play -1.5 sets at odds between -105 and -145. Make sure you look at the H2H scores before placing a bet on this prop. If the player you're betting on usually wins 3-2, avoid this bet. If he is winning 3-1 and 3-0 the majority of the time, then this bet makes sense. Use your judgment here! For this bet to hit, you need your player to win with a score of either 3-1 or 3-0.
• Play the Under - Most books will give you an oveunder on total points. If you're really confident on your player to dominate, you can take the under (total will typically be between 72.5 and 76.5). This is usually the riskiest of the options, as even a set score of 3-1 can hit the over if the game is close. I typically do not recommend playing the under, unless it is a particularly high number (74.5 or above) and the player typically wins 3-0 in head to head.

Step 3: Enjoy the Games, Reverse Jinxes are Key!
Unless your book offers you a live stream, it's often hard to find a good stream to watch Liga Pro games. If you're hell-bent on watching the game, I recommend using sportplus(dot)live, though they are inconsistent with their TT streams working. I usually keep track of the live scores on FlashScore. Now, when you're watching these games, NEVER, not even for a second, get confident that your bet is going to win. This is how you get screwed. I cannot stress enough how many times I've seen -300 or lower favorites go up 2-0, only to blow a 9-5 or such lead in the third set and get reverse swept. If you want to win your bets, you must be consistently reverse-jinxing Vladimir or Pavel or whoever you've bet on. He's up 10-5? Screw him. He's going to choke. He gives up a point? Screw him and everything he stands for. This mindset will work you wonders, trust me. No positivity until your bet wins. The moment you become confident, they fuck up - it happens every time!
Closing
I hope this guide is helpful to my fellow degens out there. I will likely publish a second edition discussing Live Betting tactics and other betting strategies I use to pick lower-juice plays in the near future, but this should be a great starting point for anyone looking to make some money betting Russian Table Tennis. As always, best of luck! Feel free to PM me or comment with any questions.

Super Bowl 55 6:30 PM February 7, 2021 Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Bucs
We have a total of 38 games combined between the Bucs and Chiefs (19 games each) we can look back on and profile each team. We all have a good understanding of who these teams are and what they’re good at. The problem is, so do the oddsmakers. Maybe you like Tampa Bay because KC has issues up front on the offensive line or maybe it’s Tampa Bay playing at home that you think gives them an edge. Or maybe you like KC because you saw Aaron Rodgers and Taylor Henicke combine for over 650 yards passing against the Bucs young secondary and can only imagine what Mahomes and his wideouts will do. Whatever the reasoning is it really doesn’t matter, it’s all factored into the line. You can research for 100hrs and listen to your favorite podcasts and gather opinions from your favorite pick sellers or pro bettors. You are very likely to end up with a bunch of conflicting opinions and more confused than anything. Pick the team you like and enjoy the game.
During the regular season you heard me talk nonstop about getting the best number and making the right decisions repeatedly and over time you will end up ahead. Well none of that matters for the Super Bowl, just pick the winner, easier said than done I know. Picking the winner of the Super Bowl will very likely result in picking the team that covers as well. The winning team of the Super Bowl has also covered the point spread just north of 80%. The bottomline is there are sharp bettors on Tampa Bay and on Kansas City and there are squares on both sides and neither of them are wrong. The Super Bowl has the most efficient number of any game of the year, at least on the side.
I have to touch on one popular angle that I keep hearing bettors use and it’s the Tampa Bay home field advantage. It’s a nice idea but let’s look at what actually gives a team Home Field Advantage. Fans would be the first factor that comes to mind. There will be between 25,000 and 30,000 fans allowed inside the Stadium but they will consist of healthcare workers, covid relief employees and corporate company giveaways and sponsors. So really there could be just as many KC fans as Tampa fans if not more. Another factor that leads to home field advantage is simply familiarity with the stadium and field but in the Super Bowl they do their best to make everything neutral, meaning both locker rooms will be exactly the same with the same amenities. Last significant factor that leads to home field advantage is travel, the idea is teams lose a day or 2 traveling and it gives them less time to prepare. With 2 weeks to prepare I don’t think we can award Tampa Bay much of an edge based on KC traveling. Although Kansas City is not allowed in Tampa Bay until 48hrs prior to the game. So this actually might be the biggest edge for home field advantage but what’s it worth? A half point? Maybe.
The Super Bowl is all about the props, your time is much better spent on props as you’ve heard me keep saying. The oddsmakers will have a lot more trouble maintaining strong lines on all the different prop offerings than they will the actual game lines where all the focus is on. My strategy for the game itself is to let my Tampa Bay future bets that you guys are probably sick of hearing about ride without hedging. I won’t be betting the side on this game, at least not before the game starts. I will be looking to possibly bet live in-game. We know the pregame line is strong but if I can get either Team off that pregame number of 3 by a decent amount on a live bet I like it (for example; TB +6 or KC plus points). But again, my focus is not on the game line.
If Betting KC - If you want to bet KC you may want to look live in-game, KC has trailed at one point in 7 of their last 8 games, although the only game they never got behind in was against Tampa Bay (KC jumped out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back). Side note: The total will be correlated to the game state of KC being ahead or behind, anytime we’ve seen them fall behind the full game total bumps up. KC is a scary team offensively when trailing, Mahomes picks up the pace and they don’t allow substitutions and just eat up yards.
If Betting TB - You have the option of +3 with no/little juice or you can find +3.5 at -120ish. In a game with a total this high I think you are better off taking the +3 with no juice or the moneyline. It’s just hard to think of a half point even on the key number of 3 coming into play with a total this high. It probably will now that I’ve said that but pick the winner, forget laying -120.
TOTAL - Going under is the sharp side as it almost always is in the Super Bowl simply because the oddsmakers inflate the total knowing the majority of public bettors will be betting the over which provides value on the under. This total opened way too high, Pinny and Cris opened 57½ and normally what we would see is sharps sit and wait for 2 things to happen. The first one is to wait till the betting public over money gets involved and hope to get an even better number. The second thing is the closer to game day the higher the betting limits and the more money they can get down. Sharps didn’t bother waiting for either, they saw enough value on the opener and hit it. They likely wanted to get in front of any possible weather adjustments that would move the line down. Either way we saw the books adjust down from 57 to 55½ before settling at 56.
I’m not betting the under in a game with Brady and Mahomes. I’ll take the square side rather than sit on the edge of my seat all night hoping these two offenses don’t explode like we have seen them do many times this year. I haven't bet the total yet but will be looking for a spot to jump in on the over. Hoping we see heavy sharp under action bring the total down or an overreaction from weather. Also like the side I might look to play in-game and hope for a sluggish start. In these big games both teams usually feel each other out first, might lead to a good number on the over.
Summary It’s one game, enjoy yourself. Don't bet 10x your normal amount just because it’s the Super Bowl. Bet the team you like and want to root for. We will get back to all that +EV nonsense in a few months when the season starts back up.

The below is a weekly piece we put out for our members - Core Plays but we are offering most of our content free this weekend for anyone that is interested in our approach. Content will be made available to anyone who signs up for a free account at dailyboogie.com. However, please check out the preview below and let us know who you're targeting in your contests this week.

NFL Core Plays: Week 8

Table of Contents

Fades will be listed as players in which we'll either be far lower than the field on or just completely off of in anything other than team stacks.
YPT = Yards Per Target
ROO = Range of Outcomes
YPRR = Yards Per Route Run
aDOT = Average Depth of Target
YAC = Yards After Catch
DVOA = Defense-Adjusted Value over Average
TT= Team Total
POWN= Projected Ownership
aFPA= Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed
EPA= Expected Points Added
RACR= Receiver Air Conversion Ratio
WOPR= Weighted Opportunity Rating
For those of you playing Single-Entry, 3 Max, 5 Max, or 20 Max: the players listed in the first two tiers are the ones to focus on the most. Ideally, you would sprinkle in some of the players listed in the 3rd Tie Dart Throw range to help diversify your player pool.
Please adjust accordingly depending on the type of contest you're entering. While we may advise you to stay clear of the obvious, more popular plays in large-field GPPs, feel free to mix and match those type of plays in smaller-field GPPs and Cash Games.

QB Core

Primary Tier

R.Wilson: I don't care if SF has a good defense. None. Especially if Carson and/or Hyde miss this game, SEA will be forced to be even more pass friendly. Also, I actually like SF's chances to score some points on this horrific SEA Pass D. To ease any concern, Russ is currently avg. 10 yards per attempt at a nearly 80% clip vs. Zone. Guess who runs Zone D at a Top 5 rate? The Niners.

Secondary Tier

R.Tannehill: With his price increasing every week (DK), we will likely see POWN held in check. This game will likely determine how my week goes as I plan to be all over it in the majority of my lineups. I've said this over and over again, but I'm just so impressed with TEN's willingness to push tempo. With a fast pace, and incredibly efficient performances every week, Tannehill will continue to be featured in Core Plays.
J.Burrow: His price oddly didn't really spike on any site, and that's fine by me. The #1 leader in drop backs in the NFL will be in a matchup where both sides like to push the pace. Mixon looks like he's going to miss another week, making the CIN Passing Game all the more obvious of a play. If we throw out the BAL game, Burrow has literally never scored less than 17 DK points, even in matchups that were a lot less favorable game environments.
P.Mahomes: Mahomes has provided enough data to see that he does put up top tier points in these surefire blowouts. KC will score 4 TDs before the end of the 3rd Quarter (if not sooner). We just need to hope we don't see those fluke Special Teams and Defensive TDs like last week which ended up being Mahomes worst fantasy output EVER. Not exaggerating, it was his lowest output in pass attempts, rushing yards, yards passing, with only 1 TD.

Third Tier

L.Jackson: I dont think Jackson is going to be viewed as anything more than a "ah maybe I'll throw him in a lineup at the end". Half a season removed from one of the greatest fantasy seasons we've ever seen, the regression bug has caught up to Jackson. Even then, the guy went from #1 Points per drop back to a mere 3rd best. People are acting as if he's fallen out of the top 10. Tough matchup? Sure. But go ahead and take a look at what games have led to Jackson's greatest outputs this year? CLE, WSH, and PHI. All have some of the better D-Line's in the league and they couldn't do anything to stop him. Another bonus here, the fact that this matchup should be competitive in the majority of ROOs. An elite talent being priced down to the 4th highest priced at the position, all while still leading a team that has a healthy 25+ implied point total.
J.Garoppolo: Any QB facing SEA has to be mentioned. Jimmy isn't your typical every week DFS plug and play but he does fit the mold of an ideal GPP play. He checks off all the boxes we want for DFS QBs in 2020: Cheap, BOOM matchup, prone to spike weeks that include ceiling games, and oh.. he might be low owned as well.
A.Rodgers: I usually don't like chasing ceiling performances but there's no way I'm going to avoid ARod here. Even so, there are some troubling angles this game could see. The good: GB ranks 2nd in the NFL when it comes to scoring per-snap. They also rank in the top half in neutral-situation passing rate. The bad: Both offenses are in the bottom when it comes to pace and plays run. GB averages just 63.8 plays per game (20th) and even worse, MIN averages 59.3 (30th). When games are within one score, both teams rank near the bottom in pace (GB 27th, MIN 28th).

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Allen: I initially had Allen in our 2nd Tier, but decided to move him to this group on account of his low POWN%. While this game doesn't have a juicy total and the Pats D ranks near the top in several categories, this is still a QB that has shown tremendous upside in just about every type of matchup. If you've been with us since Week 1, you know where I stand on Allen. Go over the field.
Thursday Update: Similar to Cam below, I had higher hopes for this particular game before finding out the injuries and weather attached. Projections will be lowered on both offenses as well as OWN%.
C.Newton: One. More. Try. Cam was great to us when the season began, but has been a shell of himself since his return from COVID. Usually a game with a total of 45 implied points is a big red flag. There is plenty of downside going with Cam Stacks in NEP vs. BUF, but there's also about a 30% shot this play can be one of the better upside + leverage moves of the week. BUF D has been bad, no way around it. Bills rank towards the back of both phases of defense (DVOA), 28th vs. pass, 24th vs. rush, 29th Overall. When looking at their PFF grades, BUF ranks 28th vs. the Run and jump up to 11th in Pass-Coverage. Clearly, NEP will likely attempt to run it as much as possible. That is where I'm hoping we'll see Cam go back to his near 12 rushes per game average Pre-Covid as opposed to his 7.5 clip these last two weeks.
Thursday Update: I had written the above prior to knowing Edelman is out, and his WR group will be D.Byrd, J.Meyers, and Gunner O. Also that the game appears projected to be played during a monsoon. So I will go ahead and take the aqua color away, I will lower my OWN% to very low levels, but I will NOT be fading him! Yolo.
K.Cousins: While I don't usually look at past matchups data as a part of my weekly assessment of a player, Cousins has played fairly well vs. GB, like always. Just as his favorite weapon, Adam Thielen, has consistently found a way to get the better of GB's secondary. Still, as mentioned above, the game could have a concerning pace issue. The return of D.Cook will likely cause the Vikings to favor the run. Cousins will be a way to pivot in large-field GPPs.

In Between Tier (In play but I'm likely to be under / not excited about)

J.Herbert: His DK price is nearly unplayable since it's based on him reaching near his ceiling game, but it's much friendlier on FD.
Thursday Update: With all the possible weather issues, Herbert has become a very interesting, very low-owned (At least on DK) large field tournament / Q option.
D.Carr: Before seeing that he's likely going to be one of the more popular options, I had Carr near the top of my GPP tier. If he's anywhere 8%+ owned I will take my chances coming in lower. That being said, this is a really good spot.
B.Mayfield: Down his WR1, he was still able to have one of his better games last week. He's staying in my player pool as a way to pivot off the Hunt chalk.
B.Roethslisberger: I actually think I may be over the POWN here, but I'm not going crazy either. PIT will likely find out it's a lot easier to throw on BAL then just running it up the middle. His weapons are quite dope.

QB Fades

These are QBs we're looking to mostly avoid, especially as solo plays. (Either because of high ownership and/or a poor outlook.)
D.Brees: "If no M.Thomas, I will be suppressing my Brees ownership severely", is what I said last week. Now, same plan, going against a decent CHI D in what is likely to be a slow paced affair.
M.Stafford: We haven't seen a true week changing ceiling and the matchup could slow down their pace this week.
P.Rivers
D.Lock

Ideal Stack Pairings

There's a lot of leverage to gain when including a second pass-catcher with our QB choice AND bringing it back with a player from the opposing team. Unlike the majority of sites, we don't advise to strictly game stack 4+ players in matchups with high implied totals. Instead, we look to target offenses where the targets are heavily concentrated.
P.Mahomes-> T.Kelce and T.Hill / D.Robinson
R.Wilson-> T.Lockett and/or D.Metcalf
J.Burrow-> T.Boyd and T.Higgins / A.Green
R.Tannehill-> A.Brown and/or J.Smith / C.Davis
A.Rodgers-> D.Adams and/or R.Tonyan / A.Jones
J.Allen-> S.Diggs or C.Beasley
K.Cousins-> A.Thielen or J.Jefferson
J.Garoppolo-> G.Kittle and/or Aiyuk
J.Herbert-> K.Allen and/or M.Williams / H.Henry
B.Mayfield-> R.Higgins and/or K.Hunt
T.Bridgewater-> R.Anderson and/or D.Moore
C.Newton-> J.Edelman or N.Harry
B.Roethlisberger-> D.Johnson and/or C.Claypool / J.Smith-Schuster
T.Bridgewater-> D.Moore or R.Anderson / M.Davis
M.Stafford-> K.Golladay or T.Hockenson
Tua -> D.Parker or M.Gesicki

RB Core

Primary Tier

D.Cook: It's the return of the GAWD. Cook is slated to return this week after the world finally realized that Mattison is not his equal, nor in the same tier. He's been fed the ball often and MIN knows he needs to be a big part of their plan if they want to keep up with Rodgers and Co. As a bonus, he's cheaper and likely to be lesser owned than some of the other Top RBs.
K.Hunt: His advanced metrics are actually showing several areas of decline but my god the current situation couldn't have even been dreamed of when the season began. Chubb and ODB are now gone, he's in position to see an endless amount of touches and is in a GREAT matchup. Oh, he's game-script proof regardless.
A.Kamara: He's likely the most talented player on every field he steps on and if the Saints ever decide to give him those 25+ touches, they may like what they see. I don't understand why they aren't giving him 30 touches let alone 25. This game also leaves Kamara's ceiling somewhat suppressed. While I won't be "Fading" Kamara, it's looking like a rare week I'll be coming in under / matching the field. (Scroll below to Updates to read NOS vs. CHI Game Environment Issues).
Update: I went through the numbers, he's currently averages about 20 opportunities per game (even without M.Thomas). Come on Saints, the hell. Unleash him.

Secondary Tier

D.Henry: The BIG DAWG is fun to own on those slates where he steps on all the defensive backs heads on his way to a 95 Yard TD score. How does somebody that big run that fast? He pulls away from CBs and Safeties that are attempting to chase him down. Anyways, we're looking at what will likely be my favorite game stack of the week. TEN vs. CIN is just so perfect for GPPs. I've said it over and over again, Pace and Volume are vital categories that I will always try to be overexposed to on a weekly basis. TEN and CIN feature the only game that BOTH teams are in the top 8 in Pace. Faster Tempo = More Plays. More Plays = More Volume. More Volume = Fantasy Gold. While this was supposed to be a D.Henry breakdown, I turned it into why I'm going to be all over this game. The CIN and TEN Pace is no fluke either. Henry has the most touches in the league while Burrow has the most drop backs in the entire NFL. Man, I'm excited.
A.Jones: His talent and projected workload belongs in the top tier, especially given its a plus matchup and he's pretty much game script proof. However, this is one of the more key areas I'm waiting to get a definitive feel for how the field will be playing it. If we see D.Adams chalk I'll go heavier on the RB side. If we see people flood to the GB Run side, I'll go even heavier on the passing attack. Regardless, I want all the GB vs. MIN I can get and will be making sure any popular combination will be attached to a contrarian piece I find elsewhere.
G.Bernard/J.Williams: Both will quickly make their way up the tiers if they get the lead role again. Both are in plus matchups, but I would like to see where POWN would be coming in at. Most likely, they will be decent pivots off their team's more popular options. Since they both have pass game roles, they can be stacked nicely with their QB as well.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Jacobs: He's been quiet as of late, but he's still one of the best volume situated backs in the league. One odd category that most people wouldn't even suspect is his solid number (24% heading into Week 7) of RBs who are targeted at the highest per-route rate. Believe it or not, theres only a handful of players with a higher number. On top of that, he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game. I'm really intrigued to see where POWN is going to come in at. Regardless, I'm aiming to be a decent amount higher.
J.Taylor: I know, I know. Grandpa Taylor and his 15 carries for 78 yards with hopefully a fall into the end zone. It's been rather brutal ever since his coming out party Week 2. Still, I have to mention the enticing matchup vs. DET's 28th ranked DVOA vs. RBs, the relatively high game total of 50+, and the large O-Line advantage he will have vs. DET's D-Line. So there you go, I have said what I have to say, now you know it. And now, we try to talk ourselves into one way or the other.
M.Gordon: So far this has been an odd tempting spot for me to go way over the field on. Besides the "revenge game" narrative, Lindsay is likely to miss this week, giving Gordon all the run he can handle. Because he's capable of catching the ball and running between the tackles, his reasonable price and the likelihood of being 5% or less owned makes him quite the bring back piece to any K.Allen lineup. While DEN vs. LAC isn't likely to go nuclear, it can very easily feature two players who can tilt some contests. Perfect case of POWN vs. What his upside/outlook suggests he should be owned.
CEH: Honestly would be straight up fading him if you told me he was going to be 18%+ POWN. I'm assuming he won't so therefore, he falls in a weird space this week. There's no reason why he cant see 21 touches and find the end zone multiple times here, and yet, he seems to find a way to disappoint. I also will be projecting him lower than what you may be accustomed to. That is because I'm 100% sure that they will be giving 1 TD to L.Bell.
M.Gaskin: In general, this MIA vs. LAR game finds itself in no man's land this week. Simply because of the lack of attention this game will be getting, leaves my contrarian obsessed mind to try to find the hidden treasures. LAR are weaker vs. the run than the pass, and with a rookie QB, I would have to assume MIA might try to keep the ball on the ground more. It's also nice to have a few bring back options in any game stack such as C.Kupp or R.Woods. Hell, even G.Everett and J.Reynolds can be other next to no ownership pieces.

Lower-Ceiling / Volume and/or TD Plays

I wanted to separate the RB group a bit more this week. While these players can be played on all sites, they are likely better suited to TD oriented scoring formats (FanDuel).
J.Conner: My ownership levels are low enough where he can be considered a "Fade" but he also makes enough sense as a contrarian TD dependent play.
J.McKinnon/J.Hasty: I would favor McKinnon because of his pass game usage in a game where they'll likely be trying to keep up vs. a defense that's a lot better vs. the run than the pass.
Starting SEA RB: While facing an elite Run D will usually be something I fade, whoever SEA plays this Sunday presents us a way to pivot in large fields or Qs with the off chance SEA decides to revert back to their 2013-2019 ways. A weak hedge on my part that will be a very small part of my FD plan.
D.Henderson / M.Brown: Annoying committee but the matchup is near as ideal as it can get.
J.Jackson/J.Kelley: Ideally LAC would like to pass it on DEN but sure, there could also be chances for red zone carries here.
D.Harris: Since there's a 50% chance NE just runs it 40 times here.
L.Murray: I wouldn't be opposed to going heavier on Kamara on DK while bumping up Murray's ownership on FD. A great hedge against the Saints burning us with random TD variance. Again.
L.Bell: Likely will be gift wrapped a TD against his former team.

RB Fades

D.Montgomery: Workload and backfield is all his and it doesn't seem to matter. His inefficient ways are no longer a habit, but a way of life.
BAL RBs: You don't find success by running vs. PIT.
J.White/R.Burkhead
D.Singletary
Any DET RB not named Swift

Standout RB Notes

Unlike the more volatile positions, it's generally fine to play the chalkier options at the Running Back position. Their guaranteed workload & touches are extremely difficult to replicate otherwise. That being said, remember to adjust based on the type of contest and field size.
Talking shop with Nick today, he brought up the "Don't play 2 RBs from the same game" rule. While that might be so for the majority of games, it's not a rule that applies for every single matchup. For example, this week I see two particular games that I wouldn't mind having both RBs in the same lineup.
J.Jacobs and K.Hunt
D.Cook and A.Jones/J.Williams
If a game includes at least 1 RB who has a decent role in the team's passing game, it opens up the possibility of 2 RBs going off no matter the game-script.
The Cook and GB RB pairing might be the more obvious but you still be surprised how rarely people play two backs in the same game. The one that I think will be very rare is Jacobs and Hunt. Mind you, before I even checked the horrific passing weather that will plague this matchup, I was all about going in on both backs, even in the same lineup. For the most part, just about every type of DFS player knows K.Hunt is well known for his pass catching abilities, but I think 95% of players would be shocked to see Jacobs' low-key pass role. Mentioned up top, but it's worth saying again: he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game.

WR Core

Primary Tier

D.Metcalf/T.Lockett: If I'm playing Wilson then obviously these two have to be included. Not the "best" matchup but on the chance this game ends up shooting out more than what people are expecting, the ceiling is as high as ANY.
K.Allen: Just a BEAST. Week in and week out, volume of the gods. I actually just became friends with the LAC WRs/Offensive Coordinator Coach so I got some insight into how they prepare for their weekly matchups. Regardless of opponent, Allen is producing at his all time best levels right now. Price doesn't seem to go up which is annoying and will make his POWN higher than it would otherwise. Lock of a Cash Play, and I will be looking to find some unique ways to feature him in my higher-dollar lineups.
D.Adams: Usually when you already own a ridiculous portion of your team's opportunity share it's hard to find another level, but that's what Adams just did when the Packers lost A.Jones. Even though Tonyan and MVS can have a few spike weeks here and there, there is no greater target density that has this kind of ceiling. Price is as high as its been all year leaving a lot of room for "disappointments". By disappointment I mean even a 8-85-0 (16.5 PPR Points) is going to be considered an off week. So while there is a decent possibility Adams "only" gets us a 16-18 point output, you better believe there is plenty of ceiling potential that we see him go nuclear yet again.

Secondary Tier

A.Brown: The combo of The greatest receiving talent in the week's best game environment has me all over Brown here. I'll have my hedge lineups that feature an unexpected C.Davis and/or Humphries spike week but no where near the amount of Brown exposure I'm planning.
J.Jefferson / A.Thielen: Yup, Jefferson has now reached Thielen Status and will be side by side. This game is my favorite one to build stacks from because of the numerous ways we can go about it. We can include GB Running with MIN Passing, we can go MIN Running with GB Passing, or we can simply bet on an all-out arial attack from both sides and have an onslaught type of lineup. (5 Players from the same game). I plan to feature an even amount of these two in all MIN vs. GB Game Stacks but I'll also be featuring them as secondary stacks and 1-off pieces without issue or hesitation.

Tier 3

T.Hill: Leading off the tier of "Really Great Talent" but questionable game environments goes Ty Freak. There's no reason why Mahomes wouldn't target the one of the most dynamic players in the game at least 7+ times. There's nobody in the Jets secondary who even remotely matches up well here. Yet, my fear of KC running away with it and their propensity to share the ball all around have me scared enough where I won't ever go all in on a certain KC pass catcher.
S.Diggs: If I am betting that NEP get their act together vs. this overrated Bills D, that likely means S.Diggs should be in position to see a lot of volume and opportunities. I wish he wasn't going to be covered by last year's best CB in Gillmore, but I'm still going to bet on Diggs Talent and workload. The good news is that S.Gilmore has "fallen off" from the #1 CB to merely just a top #10 ish CB this season. Side note: If NEP are somehow successful at slowing Diggs down, that just means that Beasley and J.Brown (G.Davis if Brown is out again) are likely in position to have a BOOM week.
K.Golladay: Last week was the highest I've ever been on Golladay believe it or not. He did his thing too, so all is well. Still, I dont understand what is keeping the Lions from feeding him true #1 Alpha targets? He's been playing in only about 75% of snaps all season which whatever I can get over if that means he's being peppered whenever he's on the field, but that's not totally the case. He hasn't seen anymore than 8 targets in a single game. That 8 target game was also his only 8 target game, meaning the others have been even less. So, this is a long-winded way of saying I want to see DET commit to their stud in the making before I go all in, especially on weeks where the matchup isn't as juicy.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

Players in this grouping aren't necessarily "worse" plays than Tier 3. The majority of the time you'll see players in this tier that I have projected to outscore some of the names above them. This tier should be viewed more as the "Leverage Group" because of their ownership being lower than it should.
NOTE: I almost didn't have to touch this section. Take a look back at last week's GPP Dart Group for WRs, an absurd % surpassed their projections. Just a reminder of how this tier tends to be the GPP tilting plays, one way or another.
T.Boyd: Pretty easily the best game stack piece to bring back in any TEN lineup. Oh, and the best WR to pair with Burrow on the CIN side. The only downside is his price increase, especially on DK. His teammates Higgins and Green offer better savings but it comes with a lower floor as well.
C.Kupp/R.Woods/J.Reynolds: I know, what the hell? All 3 are going to be severely low-owned compared to what they should. I mentioned above how LAR vs. MIA will be all but forgotten this slate, so here's me reminding you about their upside pieces. I wanted to mention Reynolds alongside these two studs because he's been putting up rather impressive numbers for week now at near min price and 0% ownership. All 3 of these can make awesome 1-off pieces as well, as there are plenty of outcomes where MIA lays an egg but LAR can still provide at least a couple of high scoring players.
B.Aiyuk: By default, the #1 WR in a game vs. SEA secondary. Kittle will still be the #1 Pass option, but Aiyuk is in a clear BOOM spot.
R.Higgins/J.Landry: While Landry will be the favorite to become CLE's go to WR post-Odell injury, it's Baker to R.Higgins who's put up some of the most unexpected QB-WR efficient numbers I've ever come across. Evan Silva mentioned the insane 74% completion rate on 65 targets for 705 yards and 7 TDs Higgins has put up when targeted by Mayfield. That's a 10.8 Yards per Target clip. Jesus.
M.Brown: BAL has paths to make this game a shootout rather than a slug fest. While the Eagles aren't exactly in either of the Ravens or Steelers Tier, they managed to turn both of their contests into high scoring, slate shifting explosions. While the Philly offense is in pieces, their D is actually somewhat comparable to these two teams. Now, again, overall they are probably two tiers below at their best, but the scheme and game flow is a great comp. Even if we have only a 33% shot to see a shootout here, I know who the likely suspects will be. With PIT having a lot better middle and inside coverage, their vulnerable on the outside. Enter, Mr. Brown.
T.Higgins: The 2nd most talented CIN WR. His upside remains that of GPP worthy and now we're even starting to see a stable floor that comes along with it. Great matchup that will likely see at least 2 CIN WRs perform well.. I like his chances.
D.Johnson: This has been one of the most annoying players to get right ever since he blessed us with a fantastic first week. Since then, we've been trying to ride him and his newly found rock solid floor to cash glory only to somehow lose him in 3 straight weeks to injury. His price last week was another key oversight that I dropped the ball on. I fell victim to having been burned too many times in a row to make him a major target last week.
C.Davis: Quietly, this former 1st Rd. Pick is becoming a decent player. Coming off of a 6 Receptions for 35 Yards and a TD on a team-high 10 targets, Tannehill seems to clearly trust him. Avg. 7.3 Targets through his 4 games.
C.Claypool: You just won't see me ever be lower on him than the field. Sadly, the days of near no ownership are likely past us.
D.Robinson (KC): Last week I wrote "My week might hinge a bit too much on whether or not Robinson continues seeing a 95% snap share. Oh well. Bombs away" Sigh. Of course, it took the most random variance of defensive TDs and Punt Return TDs to make Mahomes have his worst fantasy production of the year. Robinson is still in position to see a whole lot of snaps as the team's starting WR. At his price, it doesn't take much. Honestly, one Mahomes throw of 20 yards will get us there.
H.Ruggs: We saw his upside already. The talent is tremendous. And now so to is the matchup. (Wind might affect this call. His thrives on down field splash plays)

The In-Betweeners

Pieces that won't be priorities but offer plenty of upside in any Team / Game Stacks they're a part of.
A.Green: While I wouldn't like to rely on AJ reverting back to his prime week in and week out, we'll likely see at least a couple of spike weeks for the former stud.
J.Smith-Schuster: This guy man. I touted him all Week 6 and he burns me. I mention him in passing Week 7 and he reverts back to the old Juju.
T.Patrick: WR1 in an underrated game stack.
P.Williams: With Parker Out or even playing gimpy covered by J.Ramsey, P.Williams makes for an ideal 1% owned YOLO play in MIA/LAR Stacks.
MVS: Hasn't shown up lately but his price is really low for the WR2 in a Rodgers led offense.
N.Agohlor: Being an Eagles fan I just can't trust it, but he can be a stacking option if you like.
M.Jones: While his snap count and target share is in a sort of free fall, he's still capable of providing GPP Winning weeks in the right spots and outlier games.
D.Byrd: Keeps being priced down as if he's not seeing 90+% of snaps and 5+ targets on the regular. Might be only WR left standing.
A.Humphries: Not exciting, but exceeds value more than you would think.
K.Bourne: Floor is probably 0 but again, SEA secondary and he will be in position to see the 2nd most snaps of SF's WRs.

Standout WR Notes

Nothing much left to be said other than yet another reminder to CORRELATE your lineups. Try getting exposures to some Game Stacks that have paths to featuring several upside winning players.

TE Core

Primary Tier

D.Waller: He can lead the position this week without much of an issue. His ROO includes that of making someone a Millionaire. Great piece of a great game stack. Hell, even as a 1-Off he's nice.
G.Kittle: Faded him last week, but that stops here. Not only was he already the focal point of an offense, not only is he a 100% snap player, but now he gets to face the worst graded secondary in the NFL in a matchup that includes a ROO anywhere from a disappointing meh performance to Game of the Year. I'm betting it goes closer to the BOOM side. (The offense lost a lot of their target share due to injury, so his ridiculous usage is even safer now).
T.Kelce: Literally rinse and repeat from last week. I expect him to be decently owned and that's ok. He's popular for a reason. Presents the safest floor + ceiling combo of the position every week.

Secondary Tier

J.Smith: Here we go again, going back to the players who sucked the previous week. Smith seems to be practicing in full so we can drop all this Firkster crap.
M.Gesicki: What better way to protect the rookie QB than to pepper your talented TE who happens to be in a plus matchup vs. LAR. They are a good defense overall, but TE's are their Achilles.
M.Andrews: Might need to revisit this once the weekend arrives and POWN has changed, but the popular thinking would be that Andrews gets single digit OWN% after a dud game AND a tough matchup that will have the majority of our opponents skipping him over. This may be the rare chance to get a Top 3 QB + a Top 3 TE at bottom-level OWN%. Their ceiling easily makes it worth it.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

CLE TEs: Both Bryant and NJoku still offer decent value and are part of an offense that just lost it's number 1 target share holder. OBJ's injury has now opened up almost 40% of End Zone targets for CLE.
H.Henry: Chalky bust of last week means you know what... Play him more than the field. Don't get crazy either. If POWN is 4%, lets leverage the overreaction to a 8% clip.
T.Burton: I'm not going to deceive you guys, I have a bit of a crush on Burton ever since he was an Eagle. Love his game and all the ways he can produce. We don't know what the TE snap share will settle between Burton, Doyle, and even MAC. That being said, I'm willing to bet that Indy saw what they have in Burton and with his still really cheap price, I'm going to be plugging in Burton more than the normal DFSer.
R.Tonyan: Likely a better play on FD for his TD role, but the price has dropped enough on DK where he makes for a nice low-owned pivot in any GB Stacks.
I.Smith Jr.: Role has been growing. Likely no high ceiling in his ROO but plenty of results that see him eclipse his projected total.
E.Ebron: Including him even though the majority of his ROO includes outputs of a 4th option (as he is now) but he's also got outcomes that see him get a 2 TD game at any given week. FD preferred.
D.Sample: Only in CIN Stacks as a pivot off their WRs.

TE Fades

T.Hockenson: He's been fine. I'm still waiting for more ceiling games to come before I ever insert him into any high dollar lineups. His game total is pushing 50+ at least, but my interest is "meh".
N.Fant: I was initially excited to playing Fant this week until I ran into some troubling data. Not only have the LAC D strangled TE production as a whole, they've done so while facing some of the teams who target their TEs at the highest levels. He can always get lucky and come away with a TD, but math tells me to take some shots elsewhere when it comes to DEN offense.
J.Graham: TD or bust every week and somehow the price has risen.
G.Olsen: Honestly it's ok as part of SEA Stacks to differentiate and save money but SF vs. TE is rather tough.

TE Standout Notes

TE is a unique situation to approach depending on the site you're playing on. On FanDuel, TEs are usually priced closer together, leaving it unnecessary to play a lesser talent compared to a similarly priced stud. Touchdowns are a lot more important on FD as well. While on DK (Full PPR), we can pay down to a value TE who can get us there on volume alone.

DST Core

Highest Raw Rating: KCC, BUF, NOS, LAR
Other Pivot Options: CHI, LAC, NEP, IND, TEN, BAL

Additional Notes

We'll also make sure to explain all the benefits our Boogie Factor brings to the table and how to use it to your advantage.

The Boogie Factor combines numerous sets of data that we prioritize for player's outlooks. We're confident with our projections heading into Week 1, but our edge is really going to start showing come a month into the season. Reason being, we're waiting to collect a month's sample size from the 2020 season to better reflect certain jumps / declines players have taken.
An example of all that goes into the Boogie Factor besides the obvious categories such as projected pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns (just for QBs) is the following:
- Expected Hurries
- Projected Blitzes
- Projected Pressure
- Moneyline Spread
- Moneyline Movement
- Expected Passing Air Conversion Ratio
Recent data is even more important for skill positions such as WR and RB. A position as volatile as WR, being able to collect Air Yards Data helps nail down other advanced metrics that better predict WR efficiency and outputs.
- Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR )
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
If all that is a bit overwhelming to you, not to worry. That's why we're here and that's what the BF will help sort out.

Added Notes: Potential Game-Stacks to Target / Fade

Coming off my worst week of my DFS career, I'm going all in as far as studying every possible angle of every game. While some will be popular and for good reason, I'll be focusing more on the "secondary" options that will be more likely to be looked over.
An example, Bills vs. Pats. The low total and the recent skids of both offenses are going to cause some of the lowest ownership of the entire slate. While it's concerning that our boy J.Allen and his Bills have gone from averaging 30+ points the first month of the season to just 17 points per game since, we know the upside remains in tact. More troubling is Cam and the Pats. With literally 0 Top 24 WR & TE Week Performances since their matchup with Seattle (Week 2), we obviously shouldn't be going all in here. That being said, there is reason for hope that the Bills Top 10 Pace in 1-Score situations can force the Pats to wake up and push their tempo. As mentioned with Cam, I'm hoping we see an increase in his rushing attempts as oppose to NE simply handing it off to their rotation of backs.
Update: Sigh. Weather concerns..
Then we have those "Could Be Shootouts but Can Also Disappoint) matchups of SEA vs. SF, CLE vs. LVR, and even LAC vs. DEN.
I'm actually pretty high on SEA vs. SF generating a lot of fantasy scoring. Lets take a look at the ridiculous fantasy friendly events that are SEA games. First of all, they have produced the 2nd most plays per game (140.5). They also have the PERFECT ingredients we look for when it comes to predicting shootouts with their pass first, fast pace offense and their horrendous pass funnel defense. The cherry on top is their Run D being a Top 10 unit which all but guarantees that opponents will be looking to find ways through the air. While SF may not rank among the top in pace, or average anywhere near the amount of plays per game (124), they tend to speed things up when facing a capable opponent. SEA definitely falls under that category.
CLE vs. LVR falls closer to a 60-40% chance of surpassing expectations. My main concern is that these offenses both fall in the bottom half of the league in pace. They both are also run-first offenses. That being said, regardless of these facts, LVR games and CLE games have both managed to combine an average of 60+ points through 7 weeks. That isn't exactly a small sample. Still, there is a possibility their slower paces cause their efficient scoring to drop more than we've seen so far. At the very least, we know K.Hunt and J.Jacobs are in prime spots to succeed being in teams that handoff at Top 5 rates in 1-Score Situations.
LAC vs. DEN is actually more of a "You wouldn't think so but you be surprised". At first glance, I figured DEN offense to rank among the bottom 5 in all things scoring and pace. Surprisingly, DEN games actually rank among the top half and LAC games have seen a Top 5 rank in total plays ran. I'm assuming this matchup won't be too popular as far as game stacking is concerned, leaving us some room to gain leverage with the hidden upside we can see.
To recap: I love TEN vs. CIN, they will be my #1 targeted game in all type of contests.
Other games like DET vs. IND and NO vs. CHI offer us very little hope as far as ceiling and pace are concerned. DET's bottom 5 grade vs. the run will likely have IND committing to their usual run first ways. DET began the year with some decent pace (Top 10 throughout the first month) but have plummeted to the 20s since. As far as NO goes, they are literally dead LAST when it comes to pace whenever the game is within a score. On top of CHI's horrific 4.8 yards per play (30th), both team's defenses have been far more successful than the offenses they will be facing. CHI D ranks top 5 in Pass Rush and Pass Coverage while NO D allows the 3rd fewest "Splash Plays"(20+ yard plays). The CHI offense as it is, ranks Bottom 6 in Splash Plays themselves.
If you like this content, visit us at dailyboogie.com for additional pieces free of charge all weekend and let us know what you think!

As someone who works in analytics for a living, I’ve always been interested in the Trends-type of data tools that major tout sites offer for the NBA (RotoGrinders, FantasyLabs, etc). There can be great value in understanding how certain conditions affect specific players, teams, position groups, etc. However, I’ve been turned off by the price tag- if I’m paying $50-$150/month, it’s continually eating into my ROI, and I’m also limited by what their tools can do.
My solution- I’ve created what I humbly call ‘The ULTIMATE Dataset’. The purpose- to allow me (and you) to perform my own analysis in my own tools (Excel, BI Tools, AI/machine learning, etc.), and manipulate the data however I want. It’s a mix of raw stats, DFS data, calculated columns, and advanced metrics for the past two NBA seasons. Over the next days/weeks, I’ll be publishing here on DFS Reddit what I consider to be some VERY interesting findings from my analysis. I’ve considered whether I should keep these insights or publish them, but it’s much easier to grasp the power of the information when seeing it in action.
Data in the ULTIMATE Dataset appears as a gamelog. Each row of data is one game for an individual player, allowing you to do both overall and ‘to-date in the season’ analysis (mimicking available information if you were building lineups on that day). It includes both FanDuel and DraftKings for nearly all metrics. Could you put this together yourself? Sure! All it takes is hours, hours, and hours of scraping, formula building, and running down errors because one source says ‘Tim Hardaway’ and another says ‘Tim Hardaway Jr’. If that’s your party then get to it, but maybe your time and sanity is a bit more valuable.
But my post today has another purpose (other than to announce the arrival)- I’m genuinely interested in feedback. Are there any additional data points that should be part of future iterations/seasons? What kind of questions are you most interested in answering or hearing answers to? Are there any questions you’d like me to consider for future articles? Does this interest you at all, or are you already daydreaming about min-cashing the Christmas slate (hooray that NBA is back)?
Below is a list of the columns that are included. If you’d like the data yourself, you can get it at AnalyticsByAdam.com (Disclaimer: it’s not free- this was a mountain of work)
Season - 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons are currently available (regular seasons). 2019-20 season excludes The Bubble (because when the Nuggets start 5 centers in a game, data quality suffers...)
Game# - The game number for each team within a season
Player Name
Game Date
Player Team
Opponent Team
Home/Away
Game Time
Game Vs. Opponent - How many times the player has faced this opponent during the current season
Team Points Scored
Opponent Points Scored
Game Margin - Margin of victory or defeat for that particular player's game
Starter - Binary column of whether that player started or not
FanDuel Position- Player's position number in FanDuel lineups (1-5)
FanDuel Position Name - Same as above but with position name instead of number (e.g. PG)
FanDuel Salary - Player's salary on FanDuel for that particular day
FanDuel Salary Difference - How much the player's salary increased or decreased from previous price
FanDuel Salary Range - A pre-configured 5-tiered structure for thinking about player salary ranges, useful for analyzing how different tiers perform (e.g. Stud, Mid-Tier, Punt)
DraftKings Position- Player's position number in DraftKings lineups (1-5 or combination for multi-positional eligibility (e.g. 45)
DraftKings Position Name - Same as above but with position name instead of number (e.g. PG/SG)
DraftKings Salary - Player's salary on DraftKings for that particular day
DraftKings Salary Difference - How much the player's salary increased or decreased from previous price
DraftKings Salary Range - A pre-configured 5-tiered structure for thinking about player salary ranges, useful for analyzing how different tiers perform (e.g. Stud, Mid-Tier, Punt)
Played - Binary column of whether or not the player played in that particular game
Minutes - Minutes played in that particular game
Stats - A concatenated field of typical player stats
FanDuel Points - How many FanDuel points the player scored that game
FanDuel Value - FanDuel value for that player (points divided by salary per $1,000)
FanDuel 5.5x- Binary column indicating if player met/exceeded 5.5x value
FanDuel 6.0x- Binary column indicating if player met/exceeded 6.0x value
FanDuel 6.5x- Binary column indicating if player met/exceeded 6.5x value
FanDuel BOOM - Single column with different ratings based on player hitting 5.5x, 6.0x, or 6.5x value marks. Also contains an easy option to filter out players who did not receive significant minutes and were unlikely to be rostered, eliminating noise in the data
FanDuel GPP Ownership - Actual FanDuel ownership for that player in a major GPP contest. Specific GPP contest used differs by day to better capture a wide range of buy-in fees (but often ownership differences are minimal). Ownership data covers 90%+ of players on a given slate but may not capture every low-owned player
DraftKings Points - How many DraftKings points the player scored that game
DraftKings Value - DraftKings value for that player (points divided by salary per $1,000)
DraftKings 5.5x- Binary column indicating if player met/exceeded 5.5x value
DraftKings 6.0x- Binary column indicating if player met/exceeded 6.0x value
DraftKings 6.5x- Binary column indicating if player met/exceeded 6.5x value
DraftKings BOOM - Single column with different ratings based on player hitting 5.5x, 6.0x, or 6.5x value marks. Also contains an easy option to filter out players who did not receive significant minutes and were unlikely to be rostered, eliminating noise in the data
DraftKings GPP Ownership - Actual DraftKings ownership for that player in a major GPP contest. Specific GPP contest used differs by day to better capture a wide range of buy-in fees (but often ownership differences are minimal). Ownership data covers 90%+ of players on a given slate but may not capture every low-owned player
Pace - The player's team pace to date prior to the current game
Opponent Pace - The opposing team's pace to date prior to the current game
Pace Change - How much the opposing team's pace differs (positively or negatively) from the player's team
Expected Pace - An average of the two competing teams' pace to date
Actual Pace - The actual pace of the game played on that day
Spread - The point spread of the game
Spread Movement - How the point spread moved from line open to line close (e.g. did the betting public favor or oppose that player's team)
Spread Movement Bucket - A text field to indicate whether the public was strongly in favor of the player's team, opposed to the player's team, or relatively neutral
Betting Percentage - Based on the data from a betting members website, the percentage of bettors who favored that team's point spread. While not based on actual financial data, this provides a reasonable approximation of public sentiment
OveUnder - The Vegas oveunder for the game
OveUnder Movement - How the oveunder has moved from line open to line close (e.g. did the public favor the total to go over or under as the game was approaching)
OveUnder Movement Bucket - A text field to indicate whether the public was strongly in favor of the over, the under, or relatively neutral
Moneyline - The betting moneyline on that player's team
Implied Points - Based on the spread, how many points the player's team is expected to score
Back-to-Back - Binary column indicating if player is playing on a back-to-back
Three-in-Four - Binary column indicating if player is playing on the third night in the last 4 days
Opponent Back-to-Back - Binary column indicating if the opposing team is playing on a back-to-back
Opponent Three-in-Four - Binary column indicating if the opposing team is playing on the third night in the last 4 days
FanDuel Points/Minute - The player's FanDuel points per minute played to date coming into the game
DraftKings Points/Minute - The player's DraftKings points per minute played to date coming into the game
Usage (Game) - The player's usage rate in the game played that night
Usage To Date - The player's usage rate for the current season coming into the game
FanDuel Last 5 Value - The player's average FanDuel value over the previous 5 games (coming into the current game)
DraftKings Last 5 Value - The player's average DraftKings value over the previous 5 games (coming into the current game)
FanDuel Standard Deviation - The player's FanDuel points standard deviation coming into the game
FanDuel Max Standard Deviation - The player's maximum standard deviation for the entire season at any given point (must occur after at least 8 games for better statistical relevancy)
DraftKings Standard Deviation - The player's DraftKings points standard deviation coming into the game
DraftKings Max Standard Deviation - The player's maximum standard deviation for the entire season at any given point (must occur after at least 8 games for better statistical relevancy)
Player Points - Actual points scored by player in the current game
Assists - Assists by player in the current game
Turnovers - Turnovers by player in the current game
Offensive Rebounds - Offensive rebounds by player in the current game
Defensive Rebounds - Defensive rebounds by player in the current game
Steals - Steals by player in the current game
Blocks - Blocks by player in the current game
3-Pointers Made - Threes made by player in the current game
FanDuel Offensive Points - FanDuel points generated by points, assists, and (negatively) turnovers in the current game
FanDuel Defensive Points - FanDuel points generated by blocks and steals in the current game
FanDuel Rebounding Points - FanDuel points generated by rebounds in the current game
FanDuel Offensive Points Percentage - The percentage of FanDuel points for that player generated by offensive metrics to date
FanDuel Defensive Points Percentage - The percentage of FanDuel points for that player generated by defensive metrics to date
FanDuel Rebound Points Percentage - The percentage of FanDuel points for that player generated by rebound metrics to date
DraftKings Offensive Points - DraftKings points generated by points, assists, and (negatively) turnovers in the current game
DraftKings Defensive Points - DraftKings points generated by blocks and steals in the current game
DraftKings Rebounding Points - DraftKings points generated by rebounds in the current game
DraftKings Offensive Points Percentage - The percentage of DraftKings points for that player generated by offensive metrics to date
DraftKings Defensive Points Percentage - The percentage of DraftKings points for that player generated by defensive metrics to date
DraftKings Rebound Points Percentage - The percentage of DraftKings points for that player generated by rebound metrics to date
DraftKings Bonus Points - Number of DraftKings points generated by Double-Double or Triple-Double bonus
Opponent Blocks Conceded Per Game - Number of blocks per game allowed by opponent to date
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - Number of turnovers per game committed by opponent to date
FanDuel Defensive Points Conceded Per Game - Number of FanDuel points from blocks and steals per game conceded by opponent to date
DraftKings Defensive Points Conceded Per Game - Number of DraftKings points from blocks and steals per game conceded by opponent to date
Opponent Rebound Percentage - Essentially an average of rebound rate from key opponent players (generally indicates whether or not opponent is an effective rebounding team or not)
FanDuel Rebounding Points Conceded Per Game - Average of FanDuel points from rebounds per game conceded by opponent to date
DraftKings Rebounding Points Conceded Per Game - Average of DraftKings points from rebounds per game conceded by opponent to date
Opponent Assists Conceded Per Game - Number of assists per game allowed by opponent to date
Opponent Points Conceded Per Game - Number of scored points per game allowed by opponent to date (basketball points, not fantasy points)
DraftKings 3 Pointers Made Conceded Per Game - Average of DraftKings 3PM points per game allowed by opponent to date in season
FanDuel Offensive Points Conceded Per Game - Number of FanDuel points from points and assists per game conceded by opponent to date (does not include turnovers)
DraftKings Offensive Points Conceded Per Game - Number of DraftKings points from points and assists per game conceded by opponent to date (does not include turnovers)
FanDuel Total Points Conceded Per Game - Average of total offensive, defensive, and rebounding FanDuel points conceded by opponent to date (does not include turnovers)
DraftKings Total Points Conceded Per Game - Average of total offensive, defensive, and rebounding DraftKings points conceded by opponent to date (does not include turnovers or double-double/triple-double)
FanDuel Opponent DvP - Fantasy points allowed per game to the player's position to date (FanDuel only due to DK Multi-positional challenges)
FanDuel Opponent DvP Differential - Difference in Opponent DvP compared to league average for that position to date (FanDuel only due to DK Multi-positional challenges)
FanDuel Opponent DvP Rank - Rank of Opponent DvP compared to league to date (1-30, 1 being the toughest defense and 30 the most generous) (FanDuel only due to DK Multi-positional challenges)
Touches - Number of times the player touched the ball in the current game (note on this and other touch metrics below- touch data is not available for every playegame, but should be populated at least 80%+ for players likely to be used in DFS)
Touches Last 5 Games - Average of the player's touches over previous 5 games coming into the current game
Front Court Touches - Number of touches in the front court in the current game
Paint Touches - Number of touches in the paint in the current game
Average Touches - Average of player's touches to date in the season
Average Front Court Touches - Average of player's front court touches to date in the season
Average Paint Touches - Average of player's paint touches to date in the season
Points Per Paint Touch - Average number of basketball points scored for each paint touch in the current game
Average Points Per Paint Touch - Average number of basketball points scored on paint touches per game to date in the season
Time of Possession - Amount in minutes the player possessed the ball in the current game
Time of Possession Last 5 Games - Average of the player's time of possession over previous 5 games coming into the current game
Average Time of Possession - Average of player's time of possession to date in the season
FanDuel Perfect Lineup - Binary column of whether or not player was part of the day's main slate perfect lineup
DraftKings Perfect Lineup - Binary column of whether or not player was part of the day's main slate perfect lineup
Slate Size - Number of games on the main slate for the day (approximate based on day of week and game start time)
Unique # - A unique ID number for each row of the data
PlayerID - A unique ID for each player within the data (spans across seasons)
​
Thanks for the feedback and questions! Can't wait to publish a few insights for y'all to review!

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

Weeks 15 and16 Recap: Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! The stats in the recap are just of week 15. I did not make a post or any plays on week 16, as I was busy playing an online poker tournament, here in New Jersey. My apologies for slowing down a bit this year, it has been rather busy here. We have one more week to get it in before PLAYOFFS?!., Lets see what value we can find.
Singles (4-4 -1.03u)
Parlays (0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (1-0 +8u)
BBDLS (0-5 -2.7u)
​
Sunday Games
​
Dallas at New York Giants: Potentially a huge game for either one of these teams. Whichever of these teams wins gets to sweat the Eagles/Washington game and pray for an Eagles win. Dallas has been playing well over the last quarter of the season holding opponents to 24, and their offense has been clicking averaging over 30ppg over that span. Even with the defensive improvement, they are still one of the worst defenses in the league. New York on the other hand has a top 10 defense. It has been doing a fantastic job this year, struggling a bit over the last two weeks but overall is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their offense scores a pedestrianly average of 17 ppg but on the bright side seems to have figured out their turnover problem with Daniel Jones. Taking into account full season stats, the algo has this as NY -2. Taking into account only the last 4 games the algo has this as DAL -4.5. The bets the algo favors the most are teasing either team +6.5 or more. It predicts the highest likely game script includes mostly low scoring games due to it being a divisional rematch to end the season and potentially get in the playoffs.
​
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: A very important game for Cleveland, not so much for Pittsburgh. Cleveland needs the win to guarantee a playoff birth, while PIT has already punched their ticket. In fact, PIT will be resting Big Ben, in order to have him at his freshest for a playoff run. Cleveland will be returning most of the players that were out due to Covid vs. the Jets. They will still be missing 2 LB and 2 Safetys, but the majority of the key offensive players have returned. For Pittsburgh they will see Mason Rudolph step in at QB, the last team he faced the Browns, him and Myles Garret got into a fight that saw Garret swing a helmet on an unprotected head of Rudolph. The algo loves Cleveland to come in and take care of business, however it only likes a spread of -7/8. It was 4.5 with Big Ben but with the news of him out, it adjusts about a field goal.
​
New York Jets at New England: Boy oh boy, what a dumpster fire we have here. Both teams out of playoff contention, and both seeing some of their worst lows. (Although the Jets are more used to this at the end of the season) Jets have had some recent success, winning their first two games and beating two pretty good teams in the process. Now they go for three in a row to close out the season vs the struggling offensively, New England Patriots. They will be sitting Cam Newton and starting Stidham this week. He has looked even worse than Cam, so I don't really know what we can expect out of their offense this week. The algo leans about as close to a pickem as the computer can produce so you can imagine with the Jets catching points and odds on the moneyline, we will be looking their way.
​
Minnesota at Detroit: This game is currently on my dog or avoid list. There is to much uncertainty with the Lions QB and who is starting. All we do know is that Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is not going to be playing this game due to a death in the family. With the missing key offensive player and the unknown with Covid who the starters will be, this game is an avoid. (Possibly find value with the dog if Stafford is announced playing right before game time)
With two mediocre defenses (The Lions just giving up) this could be a good game for a same game parlays on some props. Jefferson and Thielen are both close to breaking records. Cook is out so backup RB should get more touches...
​
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is a tricky one for me. The algo loves TB to take care of business at home and favors them by 6. However, I personally am weary of both this and the Saints game as neither team NEEDs a win and only the Saints can positively change their playoff seating with a win *(and a GB loss). I think it is possible and highly favorable for both teams to rest their key starters in order to give them a makeshift bye week. Because of that, I will mostly stay away from this game and the Saints game.
​
Baltimore at Cincinnati: A divisional game that is a "Win and you're in" game for Baltimore. They will be taking on the Bengals, that have actually looked great in their last few games. However, the algo does heavily favor the Raven's to get it done on the road to close out the season. It does think that two TDs might be a bit much though. Because of that I lean Baltimore winning and clinching a playoff birth, but will either look Cincy on the points or stay away from the spread.
​
Miami at Buffalo: A VERY important game for Miami. Win, and you're in. Lose, and most likely the Colts are in. Fitzmagic came in in the last 3 mins and gave them the win and this opportunity, however he is out with Covid this game so no Magic to be had. It will be down to Tua vs. whoever Buffalo decides to play. Personally I think the value is on Miami. Who knows who and how long the Buffalo starters will play, given they are already in the Playoffs. But, it would be sweet for them to keep a divisional rival out of the post season. My algo likes Buffalo, but my gut says Miami.
​
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I shouldn't have to talk about this game. Indy knows they need a win and help, and Jacksonville already STUNNED INDY to open the season. It should be a confident grind of a win...but Rivers feeling defeated and needing help to make the post season, this might be a trap game.
​
Green Bay at Chicago: Ugh, such a hard game. My algo has GB as -3.5 Favorites (6.5 if they were at home) I think the loss of one of GBs key O-line might have a greater effect on them than one of their star offensive scorers. Rodgers is one of the best when given time, but take that time from him and he starts to crumble. Chicago has been playing as well as they could hope for down the stretch. They need a win or a loss and some help to be in.
​
Tennessee at Houston: Henry needs like 223 yards to reach the 2000 yard club. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run? Seems like a recipe for some TEN running and a play action pass or two for some big chunks. EZ$ Tenn
​
New Orleans at Carolina: The had NO as -6.5 here, but the loss of Kamara has to be worth at least 3 points right now given NO is already a little shorthanded without Thomas. Carolina has been one of those teams that just hasn't quit. They keep playing and will probably be a good team to bet on next year as they develop. Personally, a divisional game where NO doesn't improve their playoff standings with a win (unless GB loses to CHI) might be a recipe for CAR to have some easy shots at covering, backdoor covering, and maybe just winning outright. Like most of the teams with their ticket punched, there is a good chance they rest starters in the second half just to preserve the health of key players.
​
Seattle at San Francisco: Except for the loss to the Giants, Seattle has been on fire in the second half. Their offense hasn't had the firepower it started the season with, but it seems to be adding some more short passing into its game and finding a better balance. While the defense seems to be clicking on on cylinders. They have given up 17 or less in their last 5. As for San Fran: " Shanahan said he doesn't expect Garoppolo (ankle) to return this week. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring), left tackle Trent Williams (elbow), defensive end Jordan Willis (ankle) and cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) have already been ruled out. Kicker Robbie Gould was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list"
I think this is the best odds you are going to get on SEA winning the whole thing. I gave this play out to my premium subscribers a few weeks ago, but I like (and bet) SEA having the best odds/price to make it out of the NFC. If by some lucky chance GB and NO lose today, SEA can still get the number one seed and a first round bye. They are currently +1200 to win it all and have (in my algo's opinion) the best QB in the NFC right now.
🤑🤑🤑 GO GET THAT MONEY 🤑🤑🤑
​
Las Vegas at Denver: This is one of my throwaway games. My algo has this as LV -2, however both teams are out of the playoffs and this game leaves the door open for anyone to flop, or try their heart out. Personally I love Derrick Carr and I think the Raiders are primed to make a deep playoff run next given a few additions to defense.
​
Arizona at LA Rams: Hmmmm... Kyler Murray is playing(hurtish) Arizona basically needs a win and in. Rams also need a win, but can still make it with a loss. Both teams should be playing their harderst, the biggest variable is going to be the Rams QB. Goff is hurt and will not play. Rams will be going with recently upgraded from the practice squad, Worford. He will be playing in his first NFL game, and I expect the Rams to lean very heavy on the run. Worford IS a mobile-ish QB, so it isn't out of the question for him to take the rams to a good low scoring, defensive win. If he can just make 4-5 good throws on key downs and NOT turn the ball over, I think the Rams come out on top. But if he can't handle the NFL speed and commits even one turnover, then AZ becomes the favorite to win.
​
Washington at Philadelphia: Last game of the night! Flexed here because it has massive implications in the NFC East. If Washington wins, they win the NFC East and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. If Philly wins, then the winner of the Dallas/NYG game will be the winner of the NFC East. Washington let go of their rookie QB and Alex Smith will start with a "hurt" calf. Philly has 9 players on the injury report and is expected to reach deep into their reserves to field players for this one. My algo slightly favors Washington to win, but given 3-5 points at home, on primetime, I lean heavy Philly.
​
​
Singles (91-116-1, -30.11u)

• NYG ml (1u to win 1.1u)
• N. Chubb ATTS and Browns ml (2.4u to win 2u)
• NYJ ml (1u to win 1.35u)
• NYJ +3.5 (2.6u to win 2u)
• Justin Jefferson 70+ Rec Yards and 1+Tds Over (3u to win 6.45u)
• Justin Jefferson 100+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1.8u)
• Justin Jefferson 125+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 4.5u)
• Adam Thielen 68.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• Marvin Jones 64.5 Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1u)
• Calvin Ridley Over 87.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
• Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
• Dez Bryant ATTS and Ravens win (1u to win 3u)
• Buffalo 1Q ml (1.2u to win 1u)
• CHI +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• Derrick Henry Over 118.5 Rush Yards (5u to win 4u)
• Brandin Cooks Over 69.5 Rec Yards (3.33u to win 3u)
• CAR ml (0.5u to win 1.13u)
• CAR +6 (2.2u to win 2u)
• LAR if the points go back to 3...and the money line if it goes over 125.
• John Wolford Over 25.5 Rush yards (5u to win 4u)
• Tyler Higbee Over 24.5 Rec Yards (1.1u to win 1u)
• Tyler Higbee Over 2.5 Rec (1u to win 1.07u)
• J. Hurts 56.5 Rush Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (6-30, +33.96u)

• Ravens ml, Browns ml, Seattle ml, TEN ml, J. Wolford ATTD and Rams win (2u to win 27.73u)
• Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, NYG +6.5, NYJ +6.5 (FB to win 110.56u)
• Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, TB, LV, NYG +3.5, NYJ ml, CAR +6 (5u to win 270u)

​
Teasers (4-4, +34.6u)

• CLE -2.5, NYJ +8.5, NYG +8.5, LAR +8.5 and U48.5, SEA ml and U52.5 (3.86u to win 23.45u)

BBDLS (0-66, -50.24u)

• I have 7 in for 9u

​
Futures plays:
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)
​
​
Thank you everyone for reading. Good luck to all!!

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

Week 11 Recap: Aye! First week I don't post pics here and it's our biggest week of the year! Luckily for us, and all of my private subs that received my gold play, we had a nice win! (56u for us!)
Since I did not post any of my picks in this sub, I will not count them towards this subs win/loss totals. As always, only bets posted prior to game time on this sub count towards my totals so you (the readers) can have as accurate of an ROI (of this subs posts) as possible. That ROI is considerably lower than my private subs, but has been winning since the inception of this sub a few seasons ago. Lets keep the train rolling and finish the year strong! 💪🤑
Singles (0u)
Parlays (0u)
Teasers (0u)
BBDLS (0u)
Hopefully everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Now let's get back to work!
​
Sunday Games
​
Las Vegas at Atlanta: This week we open up with a game that features last weeks primetime losers. The Raiders lost to the Chiefs last week, but to be honest it was one of the best games I have ever seen Carr play. His focus looked dialed in. However, as is the Raiders current weakness, their defense could not hold off Patty Cakes and the Chiefs on a last minute drive.
Atlanta is also coming off a loss. They were taken down by Taysum Hill and the Saints. Ryan was sacked like a bajillion times and Hill looked...OK.
Both teams have a potent offense and weak-ish defenses. Both teams defenses rank in the top 15 in rush stopping, but in the bottom 3 in pass stopping. This would make you think that there is going to be a ton of passing, a ton of yards, and a ton of points. However, there seems to be heavy sharp action on the Under and the total has even dropped almost a full Field Goal since open.
I am a little nervous as my algo has this game closer to a pick-em than a Raiders road favorite by a FG. However, the Raiders have scored at least 30 in 3 straight, they are protecting Carr well (1 sack in total in last 3) and they are 4-1 ATS on the road this year. My algo does see more value on the Falcons catching points if we are looking at spreads (now that it has crossed to 3) However I can't trust the Falcons (all three of their wins came against losing record teams...Vikings, Panthers, Broncos), and the Raiders were my dark horse this year so I will RAREly take against them.
Give me the Silver and Black to win.
​
Arizona at New England: This game is quite the conundrum. You would think if NE had playoff aspirations and an opportunity to beat this AZ Cards team that they would have taken care of business last week vs the struggling Texans. However as we saw, they could not.
Arizona is coming off some rest after having played last Thursday in a road loss to the Seahawks.
Who really knows what to expect in this game. The only thing that has me reluctant to hop all over Arizona is NE is home (cold outside weather compared to the AZ dome) and Sony Michel should be back for NE. And it looks like my algo and Vegas algo came up with a similar line as my algo likes AZ 25, NE 23 for a AZ -2 and total (almost the same as what it launched at)
IF this was a normal QB All of that info would have me riding the home team catching the two. However, Belichick notoriously has trouble with mobile QBs(as they are generally harder to scheme against because they have more nodes in their decision tree every play)
So, it seems as if this game is pretty evenly matched and that's most likely why Vegas opened it as a pick-em. Just let the market decide.
Since the winner of the game is close to a coin flip, we will look at other opportunities for wagers here.
Both teams have rushing QBs that are on pace to Challenge the overall best season rush TD leader (Cam Newton at 14) Currently Murray has 10 and Newton has 9. I would be looking for both players to take the opportunity to add to their totals if they are within 10 yards of the red zone.
​
NY Giants at Cincinnati: So Sad to see Burrow go down. Seriously. Him and Herbert look Fantastic and both (given some decent line play and eventually a defense) should make some runs in the years to come. Good news for the Giants (and anyone betting them) is Burrow was literally Cincinnati's way of winning. Without him, I fear(for Cincy) that they won't have a chance to win another game this year.
The Giants are fresh off a bye and before that an upset win over the Eagles. To be honest, with the way the Giants defense is playing, if Jones can continue to protect the ball on offense this Giants team has a good opportunity to pick up the NFC East. Even if they only win this game and Week17 vs the Cowboys that would put them at 5-10 (but 4-2 in the division) and most likely give them tiebreakers over the Washington and Cowboys if they shared a similar 5-10 record.
With a new QB starting for Cincy I think it is also important to note New York's defense has also held opponents without a touchdown in the first half for three straight games. Also, Mixon is done...Gio B is questionable. This could be a mirror of last weeks score in the Detriot-Carolina game...
Great teaser spot (NYG to win)
​
Cleveland at Jacksonville: This is one of the scariest favorites I will be riding today. It should be a gimmie game for Cleveland as they build momentum on an easy schedule to finish out the regular season and have a playoff birth. However, this week in particular, their defense is riddle with injury and Covid. Myles Garrett will miss his second consecutive game with coronavirus issues as will linebacker Sione TakiTaki. Cornerback Denzel Ward will also miss a few games with a knee injury. Kevin Stefanski said he expects the Browns to also be without fullback Andy Janovich, and defensive end Joe Jackson, who are on the list. Offensive lineman Chris Hubbard is also on the list, but Stefanski said he "has a chance" to return.
On the other side of the ball we have ANOTHER QB change. This time we will see Mike Glennon. I have NO idea why Jacksonville would do this. Lutton was playing fantastic. I am hoping it is because they would like to keep or improve their position in the draft order and they don't want to make the same mistake they made last year when Mustache Mania got them some press and a win or two, but hurt their draft order.
I would say the most reliable wager to look at in this game would be Chubb and Hunts props. They are the workhorses for this team and I expect Stefanski to utilize them as much as possible as to limit how much time his banged up defense has to spend on the field against a QB they have little to no film on.
Great teaser spot (Cleveland to win)
​
Carolina at Minnesota: Carolina off delivering a crushing upset to the Lions last week. Minnesota stepping off the Red Rocket ride as they were upset by the Cowboys last week. It is not 100% yet, but it looks like MIN will be without Thielen.
My algo has this one closer to a Pick-em/ Min -1 so it seems rather hard to lay three and the hook vs. a rested Teddy B, returning to face his old team. However, taking Carolina (even though I get the FG and hook) seems like a scary side as MIN has Jacksonville next week and with a win here could easily be 6-6 and it would make for a delicious hyped up match vs the Bears.
Still, if youre going to choose a spread side, my algo is leaning Carolina.
However, my algo is also saying, forget the spread. There is much better value to be found in props. Both of these teams have an offence that can move the ball. Both of these teams have a defense that is suspect. Min has a poor pass defense, while Carolina has a poor rush defense. I would look for the usual for Minnesota (Lean HEAVY on Dalvin Cook with some 2nd half play action passes to Jefferson) But I would also look at Teddy B to come back and have a day throwing against this MIN defense. Possible Same game parlay game.
Great teaser spot (Total Over) Games in Minn this year are averaging 62.8ppg and the o/u is 5-0
​
Tennessee at Indianapolis: THE REMATCH FOR THE AFC TITLE One of the more exciting match-ups. A repeat of a few weeks ago where the Colts got the best of the Titans. There are a few concerns before picking either side here. First and foremost is the Titans are getting 2/3s of the tickets and money, but the line has only dropped one point and has NOT crossed through 3. Logic would dictate if 70% of the money is on the team getting the FG here that books would lower it to 2.5 and encourage action on the home team, thus balancing the book. The fact that it hasn't yet, is worrisome for looking at TEN.
However on the other side, nine Colts did not practice this week, including offensive linemen Quenton Nelson (back/ankle) and center Ryan Kelly (neck). Defensive backs Rock Ya-Sin (illness), S Khari Willis (ribs/shoulder) S Justin Blackmon (illness) also sat out. DT Buckner, DE Autry and LB Okereke are ALL RULED OUT. Main components of the defense that is holding strong as one of the best this year. This might give Mr. Henry the opportunity to EAT even more than he did in the first match up (like 110 yards in that one) This has me hesitant to look at the Colts. But VERY EXCITED to look at Henry's props.
Great teaser spot (Tenn spread and/or Game total Over) Getting them up over the key numbers in a divisional battle where the Colts defense should be tested missing key players.
​
LA Chargers at Buffalo: The Chargers have given up 27 or more points in their last six straight games, but are coming off a win vs. the Jets. Herbert, as he has all season, looked fantastic. And the Charger defense, as it has all season, looked like trash. Buffalo hasn't played in two weeks. The last time they did saw them lose on a last second hail-mary pass to D Hop.
So, just like a few of the games today, both teams have decent offenses that can move the ball and sub par defenses that have trouble stopping anyone. Buffalo does have a slight defensive advantage here as they do have a better pass rush than the Chargers.
Buffalo will however be missing a few players for this one. John Brown is still out and offensive lineman Cody Ford was recently injured and will miss the rest of the season.
The Chargers could see a BIG BOOST if Austin Eckler starts in this one. Herbert has already shown he boosts the abilities of the players he is throwing too, if Eckler comes back in, the Chargers could get few wins to end the year.
My algo actually has this game as -1 and a 51 as the total so naturally my algo leans Chargers.
I do fear the fact that the Bills are coming off a hard loss and then a bye, I would be WAY more likely to back the Chargers straight up here if the Bills had Won the game before the bye. Either way, this game looks like a teaser opportunity just like the game before it.
Great teaser spot (LAC spread and/or Game total Over) Like it less if Eckler is not back yet
​
Miami at NY Jets: Well, well, well. Another Miami game, AND another Jets game. AT THE SAME TIME. Miami looked horrible last week in a loss to the Broncos (which if you read last week, we flagged as a do not bet Miami spot, trap from Vegas) The Jets also lost, but looked much better than they have all season.
This weeks Jets will be a little different, it looks like we are going to see the return of Sam Darnold. Which is interesting to me because halfway though the season I looked at the Jets schedule and thought their most likely games for a win in the back half of the season were weeks 11, 12, and 17. If they were tanking for a QB, wouldn't they still ride with Flacco, not caring about his overall record? I mean, they can still tank with Darnold, but why would they lower his trade value by letting him lose out the season before they trade him and draft a new QB? I feel like it's more likely they are trying to start him to get a win and increase his trade value right before the end of the year. Also, Miami has a decent defense, but their weakest link is their run defense and the Jets just so happen to have an ex-Miami player in FRANK GORE, THE AGELESS WONDER. Is it possible that the Jets get an early lead and lean on Gore to carry them to their first and only win of the season?! Hey, the Jets are winless, BUT they have won the first half in 7 of 10 of their last day games at home. Also, over 80% of the tickets and 75% of the $ is on the Dolphins, yet the line has held steady at 7 and even dropped to 6.5 in some places!! Maybe a little sprinkle sprinkle action? 🤑
​
New Orleans at Denver: Another scary -6.5 spread. Both of these teams have formidable defenses. Denver's is average to below average, but they seem to do better at home in the altitude. (more than likely its because opposing offenses aren't used to it) This game has one of the lower totals on the day and there is increased RLM on the under. Taysom Hill won his first game, but it wasn't pretty. Now teams can build film on him and it's possible learn to contain him better. Denver has one of the lower red zone scoring allowed and Chubb and Reid are waking up this defense line as the season progresses. This reeealllly seems like the best opportunity for the lowest scoring game of the day and I will look to avoid ALL props in this one EXCEPT team totals and Field Goals.
In such a low scoring game script, I can't help but look at the spread with the home team catching almost a TD, it might also be an opportunity for another sprinkle on the 🐶
Great teaser spot (Game Total Under) Outside of a game with multiple defensive scores, I cant see either team hitting 25 points, teasing the total up to 50 and taking the under seems like a no brainer.
Update: Denver has no QBs. Covid. Dunno if the game will be played now...
​
San Francisco at LA Rams: No Jimmy G, No George Kittle. It is looking like Samuel and Moestart will be back for San Fran. Rams basically injury free.
San Fran is coming off a bye week and returning some players for a divisional game vs. a team that hasn't beaten them since 2018. You would think it's a no brainer ride with the dog catching points. However, the Rams are looking nice. As predicted as a gold play to my private subs, they took down the Bucs last week and now look to take control of the lead in the NFC West. They are also 4-0 at home since moving to their new stadium and have already toppled the Dallas offence with Dak, the Giants and the Bears defenses, and Seattle and chef Russ.
My algo does lean LA to get the win here and keep their home stadium record undefeated, however with RLM on the Under and most of the bets on LA with the line not moving at all, it is toooo dangerous to lay a full TD in a divisional game.
Great teaser spot (Rams to win) Rams should keep the train rolling and exact revenge for their 2019 season sweep by and this years loss to the 49ers
​
Kansas City at Tampa Bay: Why the fuck is this not the primetime night game? You're telling me if you are the schedule coordinator you think the public would rather watch the Chi/GB game? Give me a break. Anyway, it is what it is.
KC coming off a beautiful to watch win vs. the Raiders and Tampa Bay coming off a rough loss vs the Rams. Both on primetime last week. As expected 90% of the money is on KC right now... But the line has barely moved.
My algo has this as a 28-27 KC -1 prediction. So you know that means we HAVE to ride with the home team catching a FG and the hook. Besides, Brady has had some struggles this year, but only vs teams that have had a much better pass rush. KC pass rush just let the Raiders put up huge games, the panthers put up a ton...
Give me the Bucs in a bounce back game. With the Chiefs needing another 4th quarter comeback from Mahomey to stay in the race for the top seed in the AFC.
Great teaser spot (Tampa Bay spread) Getting this Brady lead team 10 points safety net in a game they win outright at least 25% of the time? EZ$
​
Chicago at Green Bay: Above, I asked why this wasn't the 4pm game and KC/TB the night game in this spot? It's because Vegas knows everyone and their mother will have GB ml tied into their Sunday parlays...and the Bears are going to win. 😱🙈
Game opened at 7/7.5 and when Mitch "the Bitch" was named starter it has moved up to 9/9.5. 🤨🤔
However, I think we will actually see Mitch "make you My Bitch"😎 in this game. Bears defense is legit. Probably only 4 or 5 I would place ahead of them. GB has been very unreliable over the last few weeks (loss to minn, ez win vs 49ers, barely win vs Jacksonville ...) I could Easily see the Bears holding Rodgers to 24 or less in this game. That means to cover the spread Mitch only has to score 15? With his defense giving him at least 1 or 2 great field positions... 🤑
My algo has this as GB -4.5 so I have NO Idea why the game opened over a TD AND has moved higher. The only logical guess I can make at that is the public money is all over Green Bay and Vegas loves taking the Bears to cover in this game.
​
Ravens at Steelers: Will not be written about. Too many variables, just avoid this game.
​
Seattle at Philadelphia: I will have Seattle Moneyline in any parlays/BBDLS/Teasers. Not only because my algo favors them to win, but because I LOVE having my parlays tied up with the Monday night favorite. When the wagers are still live going into the game, it allows me to make spread hedges with the dog. Also, since I have the favorite, I am most likely getting the best price on the favorite at the beginning of the week, and also the best price on the underdog just before game time. How lucky would it be if we have parlays live going into Monday night with Seattle moneyline and the spread for Philly gets all the way up to +7! Dream hedge opportunity 😍
​
Singles (68-86, -25.16u)

• Cam Newton 42.5 Rush Yards Over (1.06u to win 1u)
• Kyler Murray 51.5 Rush Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• NYG -9.5 (1u to win 1.48u)
• Chubb 85.5 Rush Yards Over (1.4u to win 1u)
• Chubb to score and Browns to win (1.05u to win 1u)
• Justin Jefferson 73.5 Rec Yards Over (1.37u to win 1u)
• Teddy B 255.5 Pass Yards Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
• Robby Anderson 5.5 Rec Over (0.8u to win 0.5u)
• Curits Samuel 4.5 Rec (0.5u to win 0.5u)
• Eckler Anytime TD (2u to win 2.5u)
• Josh Allen Anytime TD (0.5u to win 0.55u)
• Keenan Allen 77.5 Rec Yards Over (1.12u to win 1u)
• Diggs 84.5 Rec Yards Over (1.18u to win 1u)
• Cook and Henry 1TD or more each (1u to win 3u)
• NYJ +7 (1.1u to win 1u)
• NYJ ml (0.5u to win 1.3u)
• NYJ 1H ml (1u to win 1.85u)
• NO/DEN First to 25 points: Neither (2u to win 2.4u)
• NO/DEN First to 25 points: Neither (0.5u to win 2.15u)
• TB +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• TB ml (1u to win 1.6u)
• Brady and Mahomes 2+ TDs each (2.5u to win 2.5u)
• Bears +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
• Mitch T Anytime TD (0.5u to win 3.5u)
• Mitch T First TD scorer (0.5u to win 20u)
• Mitch T Rush Yards Over
• Allen Robinson 65.5 Rec Yards Over \ These two aren't in yet, looking for lines. If I find it and bet it I will post in comments**

Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)

• NYG ml, CLE ml, Bears (FB to win 7.07u)
• NYG ml, CLE ml, LV ml, LAR ml, SEA ml (25u 0u to win 98.8u) This is part of a promo. If a loss, the bet is returned in cash.
• I have a few more in, all FreeBees

Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)

• LAC O44.5, CAR O44.5, CLE 0, LAR 0 (4u to win 11.59u)

BBDLS (0-50, -41.89u)

• I have a few in, but all but 3 (2.2u) are with bonus dollars or free bets. Feels like a good week 😉

​
Thank you for Reading. Good luck to everyone!

Hi ObeseTurtleOnItsBack, you're not shadowbanned, but 24 of your most recent 42 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).

Comments:

gewjsxr in sportsbook on 07 Dec 20 (1pts):

HAHAHAHHAA Broncos 1st half moneyline EZ MONEY BRAH

gew2okp in Seahawks on 07 Dec 20 (1pts):

Hey, just checking in, I was told Russell would be cooking something today. Looks like ain’t nobody eatin today 😂

gevmbm1 in sportsbook on 06 Dec 20 (1pts):

Nice, glad you tell us this in hindsight!
You can literally go and make a million of these fantasy “coulda shoulda” posts

gevfnu6 in sportsbook on 06 Dec 20 (1pts):

LMAO @ Raiders spread bettors 😂😂😂

geuuitt in sportsbook on 06 Dec 20 (1pts):

There’s finna be a LOT of salty Vikings spread bettors in about two hours 😂

geqp1e2 in sportsbook on 05 Dec 20 (1pts):

lol looking at ND and Syracuse “all plays” on ESPN, and you see: End of half —> Fumble —> Fumble —> Touchdown —> Interception —> Fumble

geq8pp1 in sportsbook on 05 Dec 20 (1pts):

Imagine thinking that the games are rigged and still betting on them.
Only an idiot would do that, so either you didn’t bet it or you don’t truly believe it’s rigged right?

geq52aq in sportsbook on 05 Dec 20 (1pts):

Texas A&M at even money was literally free money when they were down 6.
Bo Nix ain’t finna beat this squad 😂

geps0pv in sportsbook on 05 Dec 20 (1pts):

Texas ML was the easiest lock of the year lol

genr9z9 in sportsbook on 05 Dec 20 (1pts):

Marquette ML was ez money today, Wisconsin overrated af

genpir8 in sportsbook on 05 Dec 20 (1pts):

Imagine thinking a random poster on reddit impacts the games.
Lmao

gek2jfp in sportsbook on 04 Dec 20 (2pts):

The VMI bettors were so cute with their hopes up 😂

gejzjli in sportsbook on 04 Dec 20 (1pts):

VTech down 3 currently, HAMMERING the moneyline. They’re not losing to VMI lol
Edit:
Just threw $450 to win $100. They’re gonna pull it off easily

gejxm8d in sportsbook on 04 Dec 20 (1pts):

Naaaah ez pz breezy

gejwa63 in sportsbook on 04 Dec 20 (1pts):

Told y’all UConn was a LOCK. USC ain’t the old USC

ge4v7vc in wallstreetbets on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):

Buying $50k in GME puts about 30 mins after open. Finna make a KILLING, B

ge4v55w in wallstreetbets on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):

GME will close sub-20 today, THATS ON GOD NO CAP.
We finna see a bunch of nerds here FOMO in at market open and then it’ll plummet just like PLTR, aayyyyyy lmao I was lmao!

ge1m5do in Coronavirus on 29 Nov 20 (1pts):

Can’t wait to take it and develop autism!

ge16fq3 in Chiraqology on 29 Nov 20 (1pts):

There’s only one coward in the situation - the dude who had a whole CREW try to jump one person 😂

ge16247 in Chiraqology on 29 Nov 20 (1pts):

Jake was smoking on that Nate pack 😂

gbndulz in Seahawks on 08 Nov 20 (1pts):

This game OVA WIT. Allen showing why he’s a better quarterback

gbndsqj in Seahawks on 08 Nov 20 (1pts):

Nah fam

gbndczm in Seahawks on 08 Nov 20 (1pts):

Damn Allen making the Seahawks D his bitches

Submissions:

k3951v in confessions on 29 Nov 20 (7pts):

I love how absolutely triggered people are that Jake Paul DOMINATED a professional athlete

I'm a bot. My home is at /CommentRemovalChecker - check if your posts have been removed! (How to use)
Help us expose and stand up to social media bias and censorship!

Can’t wait for sports[betting] to return!
Large caveat that this season is NOT going to operate like normal seasons, but I still present my humble, food for thought PSA:
If you like a favorite, always consider the runline. After all, the best team in baseball wins 3 of every 5 games, the worst team wins 2 of every 5 games. Even if you’re dangerously in love with the chalk, you aren’t betting the Pats over the Browns.
Over the last decade, only 28% of MLB games ended decided by one run. Last season, 56% of one run games were won by the closing line favorites. Ergo, only 15.68% of the 2019 slate ended in the chalk winning by a single run.
If you won 100 games putting $100 on a -120 line, you’d profit $8,333.
If you won only 84 of those games putting $100 on the RL at +150, you’d profit $11,200 even after the $1600 in losses.
Betting the favorite and losing is the same detriment regardless of su/spread bet.
Personally, albeit in a very small sample, I began testing this last year from August 1 on, ended with a 34-26 (56.7%) record and 41% ROI. Further, focus on away runlines. i went 19-18 with 31% ROI on the home team and 15-8 with a whopping 57.6% ROI on away teams. This has inspired me to keep the system into this year.
Again, all is going to be different this specific season. Note that divisional games are statistically more likely to be 1-run, and each team plays 67% of schedule against the division. The nature of each game being worth almost a full series sweep will certainly bring scores closer, and the pressure of a 60 game sprint will create more competitive environments across the board.
However, the 3-batter minimum and universal DH are both factors that reduce close game potential in my opinion.
Bet smart, but don’t be a square. The runline is not a sucker bet. Happy wagering, friends.
EDIT: sweet controversy! I love the swinging opinions, especially in sports betting.
A) Do NOT bet this in the case of poor odds. I’m talking specifically about when the moneyline is in the -110 to -150 range and therefore the runline would be +120 or better. DO NOT BET A RL AT -140. Honestly, any baseball game at -140 is questionable at best
B) THIS IS NOT A MODEL. As I bolded earlier, my message is to consider the runline. I’m just unearthing some stats for people to do what they wish with it. Threw this out here to get a feel on how people perceive the idea, not as an Oracle revealing secret knowledge