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The Sports Betting Calendar for 2021 - All the biggest events by month

It's going to be a strange year for sport and much like 2020, these sporting events will feel much different than normal. However there is plenty to keep the average punter happy when it comes to placing bets and trying your luck. The crowds will be much thinner, but that might even make it a bit easier for the experts to focus on what they do best.
I find the best odds and biggest range of events for our taste over at SportsBet.io, here is a month by month rundown of the biggest events happening this year.
February is packed with action: Fifa World Cup, Tennis ATP Cup and the Australian Open, Nascar: Daytona 500, Premier League Darts and Rugby Union: Six nations round one. The pinnacle of all sporting events, The NFL Super Bowl LV also takes place on the 7th of Feb.
March continues the pace with The Cheltenham Festival horse race, the Oman Open and the Darts: 2021 UK Open.
April has a nice mix with the World Snooker Championship, The Men's golf major: Masters Tournament, the Carabao Cup final and the Escape Loch Ness cycling event.
May leads us to another super hot month, with the Belfast City Half Marathon, the legendary Kentucky Derby, the Portugal masters and European Tour golf. The 2021 Scottish FA Cup final will also crown a winner. The British Touring Car Championship is a favorite for speed rally freaks. The US PGA Championship and the French Open will have tennis fans on the edge of their seats. To round it off the Uefa Champions League final occurs at the end of the month.
It's a bit quieter in June, Epsom Derby festival & Royal Ascot will attract horse racing afficionados and the Uefa European Championship is decided.
July is the opening of the Tokyo Olympic Games, although this one is looking rather precarious with the pandemic current situation, it will open up a whole realm of out of the ordinary sports for viewers.
The highlights of August would be more Olympic sporting activities, the English Open, the British Grand Prix MotoGP event, The US Open and the Tokyo Paralympics.
September will keep you busy with the World's Strongest Man: Giants Live World Tour Finals, the KLM open and the 43rd Ryder Cup.
October is when the London Marathon takes place, has the Rugby World Cup 2021 and plenty of golf tournaments to cap it off.
November has the DP World Tour Championship, the Ashes Test cricket series and the Melbourne Cup in Victoria, Australia.
December rounds out the Ashes test series and finishes with some classic UK Championship Snooker.
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r/ AFL Compendium of History – AFL Collapse: How the Carlton Blues almost built a dynasty, but then accidentally hit the self-destruct button.

Greetings everybody. The topic I wanted to cover for the History Compendium is inspired by SB Nation's Collapse, a really interesting series on how a sports team or athlete can collapse quickly, and go from a strong team, to a weak one. I don't even follow most of the sports they discuss, but I still find it interesting, as rarely does such a collapse happen due to a single event; normally it takes multiple events to truly make it set in, such as Sega dropping out of the console manufacturing business. The Carlton Football Club, after spending much of the 2000s in disarray, seemed on the precipice of success in the start of the 2012 season. They had returned to finals in 2009 through 2011, and had a strong list that was danger to contend with. Advertisements told their fans that “they know we’re coming” and “can you smell what the blues are cooking?”, building on the hype and anticipation many were having. Everyone knew that the list was on the verge of greatness, and one that had 16 players aged 22-25, and was absolutely entering its prime, with coach Brett Ratten, and a squad including Chris Judd, Chris Yarran, Jarrad Waite, Andrew Carazzo, Lachie Henderson, Zach Tuohy, Bryce Gibbs, Jeff Garlett, Heath Scotland, Andrew Walker, Bret Thornton and Mitch Robinson. The common thread between those players and coach? All of them were gone in just a few years.
Blue Velvet, 1995-2001
In 1995, the Carlton Football Club had been in serious discussions with other clubs, including St Kilda and North Melbourne, to merge into a new entity. Things were dire for some Victorian clubs, and the Blues saw the potential in forming a superteam by plundering other clubs players. The AFL was also offering financial incentives to merge, at a time when equalisation payments were nowhere near as high as they are now, and the AFL was actively seeking to reduce the number of clubs in the suburbs of Melbourne. These discussions were scattered to the wind when Carlton finished the 1995 season with a 20-2 record, their best ever, and won their 16th Premiership, putting them ahead of arch-nemesis Essendon as the most successful club in the AFL. Carlton was a strong team for basically its entire history, and it looked like smooth sailing up ahead. But the future was actually more like the Israelite’s 40 year trek to the promised land through a deserted wilderness. The club made finals every year from 1993-1996, and 1999-2001, and appeared in the 1993, 1995 and 1999 grand finals, winning 1995, but losing the others. 1999 was particularly infamous, as the club defied the odds to even be there, defeating heavily favoured minor premiers Essendon to get there, but losing heavily to the Kangaroos. But Carlton was a big club that could seemingly do no wrong, and they fell to the ultimate delusion; that they deserve success.
Blue Monday, 2002-2004
After solid performances in 2000 and 2001, the club’s 2002 season was a disaster, earning the club the indignity of its first ever wooden spoon, something unthinkable for a club used to success and dominance. The many aging star players of the 90s all fell off a cliff at once, resulting in such a massive loss in the quality of the list. However, the future still seemed bright; the club had earned a priority draft pick, and the first two players picked in that draft, Brendon Goddard and Daniel Wells, would have been excellent pick-ups. Unfortunately, the club were a pack of lousy no-good cheaters.
It came to media and AFL attention that the club had been playing four of its players under the table; Craig Bradley, Stephen Silvagni, Fraser Brown and Stephen O'Reilly. Carlton had traded in O'Reilly from Fremantle, but he didn't work out, retiring from injury after just one season. However, the O'Reilly trade would lead to the salary cap cheating becoming known to the AFL and becoming a scandal, and would also lead to one of the greatest copypastas bigfooty will ever produce, courtesy of former Richmond mod Weaver.
Worst trade ever?
That's easy. Pick 16 and 46 for Stephen O'Reilly who played 12 games for you. AND you had to pay him illegally outside the cap. AND he blew the whistle on you. AND you had to pay a fine. AND you got kicked out of the draft and had to recruit hacks. AND it meant that your mulit-million investment in Denis Pagan was a waste because he had no players.
Stephen O'Reilly for - Pick 16, pick 46, $1m fine, pick 1, 2, 17 and 33 in the 2003 draft, pick 1 in the 2003 PSD, 1st and 2nd round picks in the 2004 draft.
I reckon that would have the McMahon trade covered by a couple of laps of Flemington, then a trip down the highway for a run round Caulfield, before a backtrack to run the length of the Moone Valley straight.
Carlton was very harshly punished by the AFL as a consequence. Not only were their priority and first and second round draft picks (Picks 1, 2, 16 and 17) taken away, but they couldn’t trade back into those rounds, as the picks were taken away after the end of the trade period. They also lost their first and second round pick sin 2003, and similarly from prohibited from trading into those round there either, although they did earn a priority draft pick (Pick 2) in 2003. They also couldn’t participate in the pre-season draft, which was a commonly used method of recruiting mature talent in a time before delisted free agency, and finally, received a $930,000 fine ($1.4 million in todays money). The fine hit the club at a bad time, as they’d spent huge sums of money on poaching coach Denis Pagan from North Melbourne, and in renovating Princes Park. Pagan’s hiring would prove a costly mistake, as he failed to accomplish much with a list in a state more radioactive than the Chernobyl dead zone, and the money spent on Princes Park were wasted, as the AFL was moving games away from suburban grounds to the centralised MCG and Docklands stadium. Carlton had already lost $500,000 in 2002, and was forced to take a $1.3 million loan from the AFL. Pagan’s attempt to keep the list afloat ended up being a “dead cat’s bounce”, as the numerous recycled and rejected players failed to prop up the list. The club finally threw up its hands, and belatedly began to invest in youth.
Mr. Blue Sky, 2005-2007
In round 16 2007, a Brisbane team that wasn’t even that good destroyed Carlton 25.13 (163) to 6.10 (46), and just two days after the match, Pagan was fired, and assistant coach Brett Ratten was appointed as caretaker. Carlton was doing so badly that they were in the range or earning a priority draft pick before the first round if they didn't win another game. Then, in what I’m sure is just a coincidence, Carlton lost their remaining six games, earning them a priority pick before the first round of the draft (even though they finished 15th, with Richmond getting the wooden spoon), meaning that they had Picks 1 and 3; they traded Pick 3 as part of the deal for Chris Judd, and used Pick 1 on Matthew Kruezer. Getting Chris Judd was huge in the context of the time, as Judd was the captain of West Coast, and one of the greatest players the game had ever seen. The fact that Carlton could lure him over was a massive coup, and this along with their three first picks in a row, gave many people confidence that the core of a future great side would be in place. The club wasted no time in making Judd their new Captain.
West Coast, who had made it clear that they didn’t consider that any trade could replace Judd, got Pick 3 (which they used on future premiership player Chris Masten) and a young forward called Josh Kennedy, who would later win the Coleman medal twice and also be a premiership player. Debate still rages over who won that trade, as both clubs definitely gained from it.
In 2005 through 2007, the club ended up with the first pick in the draft each year. This was due to earning the 2005 and 2006 wooden spoons, and a priority draft pick in 2007. These three consecutive number one picks in 2005-2007 were Marc Murphy (who nearly went to Brisbane as a father-son), Bryce Gibbs (who nearly went to Adelaide as a father-son) and Matthew Kruezer. The 2007 priority pick proved to be highly contentious, and would be cited as a factor in removing the automatic allocation of priority picks in 2013. In Round 22, both Melbourne and Carlton played against each other with a record of 4-17, and whoever lost would get the priority draft pick; Melbourne would get Pick 19, as they hadn’t earned a pick the year before, while Carlton would get pick 1, as they had. Neither team could finish last, as Richmond had already finished 16th with a record of 3-17-1; the result was a farce, where neither team gained anything from winning, but plenty from losing. In what I’m sure is just a coincidence, the match was high scoring, played with low intensity, poor skills and very little defensive pressure, and Carlton lost, using the priority draft pick on Matthew Kruezer. The tanking was so obvious and predictable that observers and media referred to the game as “the Kruezer Cup”.
Blue (Da Ba Dee), 2008-2011
Chris Judd would prove to be just as brilliant as he was at West Coast, winning his second brownlow medal in 2010, and making the All-Australian team each year from 2008-2011. However, his time at the club was not always squeaky clean. It was revealed that paper and recycling company Visy was sponsoring him $200,000 a year to promote their environmentalism. In what I’m sure is just a coincidence, Visy was also a sponsor of Carlton, and many felt that this arrangement was an attempt from Carlton to get around the salary cap again, except instead of disgusting, brown paper bags under tables, they were using green and environmentally friendly side deals that was clearly just players getting sponsorships due to their high profile. The plan didn’t work, and the AFL revised rules so that such payments from sponsorships are now included by clubs in their Additional Services Agreement, and the AFL has to approve third-party deals now.
In 2008, Carlton improved significantly, finishing 11th with 10 wins. In 2009, they finished 7th with 13 wins, and returned to finals for the first time since 2001. Despite gaining a large lead in the fourth quarter, they fell apart to a comeback from Brisbane in the Elimination Final, and were defeated. They returned to finals again in 2010, with 11 wins, but were narrowly defeated by Sydney by just five points in the Elimination Final. In 2011, the club finished 5th with a 14-7-1 record, their best since 2001, and finally broke through the elimination finals, defeating Essendon 21.23 (149) to 13.9 (87). In the semi-finals, West Coast had a 21 point lead in the final quarter, but Carlton kicked the next three goals to bring the margin down to just two points. Controversially, with time running out, Andrew Walker was debatedly held near the goal square, but the umpire didn’t pay what should have been a free kick. Carlton’s finals campaign ended in heartbreak for the third consecutive year, going down to West Coast 15.11 (101) to 15.8 (98). In what I’m just is a coincidence, Ratten’s soon-to-expire contract was extended to 2013 shortly after the finals win.
Almost Blue, 2012
Early in the 2012 season, Carlton faced their arch-rivals Collingwood, fielding this squad, built over many years, with Kade Simpson the only holdover from the 2002 season. The hype for this Friday the 13th thriller was intense, and had a dope as hell promo featuring Dennis Commetti, a Werewolf and Michael Jackson.
Carlton Round 3 2012 Squad
FB Jeremy Laidler Lachie Henderson Chris Yarran
HB Heath Scotland Dennis Armfield Zach Tuohy
C Mitch Robinson Chris Judd Kade Simpson
HF Jeff Garlett Jarrad Waite Marc Murphy
FF Michael Jamison Matthew Kreuzer Eddie Betts
FOL Shaun Hampson Andrew Carrazzo Bryce Gibbs
I/C Kane Lucas Paul Bower Ed Curnow
I/C Nick Duigan
This team defeated Collingwood, who the previous year had 20 wins and a percentage of 167.7. And not just beat them, they flogged them 18.14 (122) to 9.8 (62). This wasn’t even their best team, as Levi Casboult, Brock McLean and Andrew Walker were omitted. But Collingwood would make the finals that year; Carlton didn't.
Carlton won five of their first six games, but then fell off a cliff, and won six of their next sixteen. What some view as the nail in the coffin was their loss against Gold Coast in Round 22, a team that only won three games that year; this, as well as losses against non-finalists Essendon, St Kilda and Port Adelaide, led to much frustration, and the perceived need to make a radical course correct. But perhaps this desire for a radical course correct should have been tempered with a realistic assessment of the club’s injury list.
Of 48 players on the senior and rookie lists, 20 players played more than 12 games, 21 played less than 12 games, and just seven didn’t play any. This is an especially high rate, especially for a team in the hunt for finals, which would typically try to play the same 22 players each week. For context, 2012 premiers Sydney had 23 players play more than 12 games, 8 played less than 12 games, and 13 wouldn’t play a single game. Matthew Kreuzer (hip), Mitch Robinson (calf), Zach Tuohy (back), Lachie Henderson (groin), Jeremy Laidler (knee), Shaun Hampson (knee), Chris Judd (suspension), Andrew Walker (calf), Jarrad Waite (back) and Kade Simpson (broken jaw) missed significant chunks of the season. Just Bryce Gibbs, Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett would play every game. The season was also Bret Thornton's last at Carlton, who play his last season at GWS the next year. Thornton had been a reliable defender for years, and would be sorely missed.
Some great enterprises in history fail because of the lack of direction, the perception that everything is fine and nothing needs to chance. Carlton’s inevitable collapse would actually have the opposite cause; the club was already stable, and only needed reflection on what went wrong in 2012. Instead, the club made the fateful decision that would come to haunt their fans for years, and they sacked Brett Ratten despite his contract having another year to go, and hired Mick Malthouse as their new senior coach.
On paper, hiring Malthouse isn’t that bad of a decision; he’d been a senior coach since 1984, coaching Footscray, West Coast and Collingwood, and as coach, appeared in the 1991, 2002, 2003 and 2011 grand finals, and won the 1992, 1994 and 2010 premierships. Unlike many other old coaches, such as Robert Walls, Kevin Sheedy, Leigh Matthews or Dennis Pagan, he seemed just as capable as an old man as he had when he was younger, tactically innovating with the times. In particular, Collingwood was a dominant force in 2010-2011, and was the team others emulated and wanted to beat. On top of this, many felt that his departure from Collingwood in 2011 was unfair. Collingwood President Eddie Maguire had insisted that Malthouse hand over the reins to assistant Nathan Buckley, and after a transition period in 2010-2011, Buckley became senior coach and Malthouse was to be given the made-up position “directing of coaching”. The transition was not smooth, and there were arguments over who was in charge, who had responsibility for coaching, and players took sides in the arguments. Malthouse left, but was raring for the chance of coaching again; in what I’m sure is just a coincidence, with just 40 more games, he’d reach 700 games coached, and was seemingly close to breaking Jock McHale’s 64-year record of most senior games coached (indeed, he’d exceed it in 2015, and set a new record of 718 games).
Electric Blue, 2013
Despite Carlton’s hiring of Malthouse to get them into the top 8, he failed to do so, and they finished ninth. Despite this, they still made finals, as Essendon, who would have finished 7th, were expelled from the finals as punishment for their supplements program, just the start of the long and drawn out supplements saga. The result was that Port Adelaide and Carlton were bumped up into 7th and 8th place, and Carlton qualified for finals in the most bizarre way since Fitzroy did in 1916 despite finishing last (the 1916 had just 4 teams due to the first world war, and all of them qualified for finals; Fitzroy ended up winning the premiership as well).
Carlton went up against one of their greatest historical rivals, Richmond, who had qualified for finals for the first time 2001 after having their own on-field and off-field issues. Surely Richmond would wipe the floor with Carlton? After all, they weren’t even meant to be there. However, just like the 1999 Preliminary Final, and the 2019 AFLW Preliminary Final, Carlton has the annoying habit of winning finals they have no right to be in, and in the shock result of the year, Carlton defeated Richmond in a last quarter comeback. Richmond, the club many derided for regularly placing 9th (since their 1982 grand final appearance, they finished 9th in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2008) and just missing finals, had finally returned to finals, and then were defeated by a team that finished 9th, in what is possibly the greatest of ironies in sports history. As a supporter of the other sash team, I miss the days when Richmond was a joke. Carlton’s surprise finals campaign ended the next week, when they were defeated by Sydney in the semi-finals.
The off-season saw the club delist Jeremy Laidler, who was then signed by Sydney as a delisted free agent and played for another three years. According to Laidler “It was tough but I just wasn’t in Mick’s (Malthouse) plans and I just had to move on and I couldn’t be happier with where I’ve ended up.” Then, Eddie Betts, a generational small forward, left as a restricted free agent to Adelaide. Adelaide’s contract offer wasn’t much higher than what he was already receiving, and was happy to stay at Carlton, but Adelaide’s offer wasn’t matched, so he walked to Adelaide and became one of the game’s most iconic players. While he would eventually be traded back in 2019, he spent five of his best seasons at a different club. Betts later said that leaving Carlton was “the hardest decision I had to make in my life”.
Mitch Robinson would later say on his podcast to Betts that “I know for a fact that a lot of players, including myself, Jeffy (Garlett), (Chris) Yarran, Dennis Armfield, we all just felt shattered when you left” and admitted that the Blues “went off the rails” afterwards. He was so shattered by his departure, as were many other players that Robinson even looked into moving to Adelaide too in order to keep playing with him. Betts’ departure had another nail in the toblerone; he was well aware of what his departure could mean to the other indigenous players on the list, such as Chris Yarran and Jeff Garlett, who both went through personal troubles in the years after his departure.
Meanwhile, Carlton didn’t get compensation for either Betts or Laidler, as they signed Dale Thomas as a restricted free agent from Collingwood; if a club that loses a free agent gains a free agent, then they are not entitled to compensation. Dale Thomas was one of Malthouse’s favourites from his time there, and it was clear to outsiders that he was playing favourites, highly rating players like Thomas, and massively underrating players like Betts and Laidler; indeed, Thomas ended up being the second-highest paid player on the team. The club also traded out Shaun Hampson, who was a decent ruckman, and whose rucking freed Kruezer to be a key forward. What could have been a disastrous draft was salvaged by two players; they traded in Sam Docherty from Brisbane, and drafted Patrick Cripps, their current co-captains.
Goodbye Blue Sky, 2014
Carlton’s 2014 season was a whirlwind. After starting 0-4, they ended up 4-5 before their bye. Finals was still in reach, but the prospect of finals was like fruit and water in front of Tantalus, so close yet so far away, and they finished the season with a record of 7-14-1, and finished 12th.
Malthouse’s game plan was mis-matched with the skills of the players he had; this is a mistake coaches have made many times at many different teams. Some coaches think they must make their team play the way they want them to, rather than crafting a game plan that uses the strengths of the players currently on the list. Malthouse’s old-school, tough and uncompromising persona as coach crushed the confidence of players like Mitch Robinson, Jarrod Garlett, Troy Menzel and Chris Yarran. Robinson would reflect on his time at Carlton under Malthouse as unenjoyable, losing much of his passion to play football and dreading coming to work. In Yarran’s case, he developed severe mental health issues, and would quit from the AFL a few months after being traded to Richmond in 2015. His personal life later took a dark turn, and he developed a crystal meth addiction and would go to prison in 2019 after going on what the foxsports delicately called “a meth-fuelled crime spree”.
In August 2014, Mitch Robinson, Jeff Garlett, Garlett’s brother Gerald and Garlett’s friend Matthew Johns got in a brawl outside a Melbourne nightclub. Garlett, who had apparently tried to jump into a taxi that already had two women in it, caused an incident that led to a brawl with their three male friends. Garlett was knocked unconscious and Robinson was king hit, knocked to the ground, and kicked several times, getting multiple bruises and a fractured eye socket before he was able to get up and run away. Making things worse, Robinson tried lying about what had happened to the club, saying that his injuries were from a boxing session at training, a lie that was quickly undone. Robinson had earlier gotten in a drunken fight at the Big Day Out festival in 2013, and the club was through with him. All three of the attackers were sentenced to community service for assault, but the incident served to cloud the club’s perception of the two players.
In the aftermath of this fight, Jeff Garlett was traded to Melbourne for peanuts, and Mitch Robinson was delisted. Garlett would have a decent five years left in his career, while Robinson would end up going to Brisbane as a delisted free agent and in his first season won their best-and-fairest, would turn his life around, and is now one of their most important players and leaders. These weren’t even the worst deals that they made in 2014.
Jarrad Waite left to North Melbourne as an unrestricted free agent. Waite was a father-son player (Vin Waite played in Carlton’s 1970 and 1972 premierships), and experienced old hand who was still best 22 quality, and was an important key forward, being their leading goalkicker in 2014, and North Melbourne’s in 2015. Waite’s contract had ended, and he decided to exercise his rights as a free agent after 12 years at Carlton, who didn’t get any compensation due to his age and the size of contract he received from North Melbourne. Once again, three good, important players were discarded by a club that for some reason drastically underestimated their value, and they would later suffer for it.
In the worst of their deals that season, they traded their first draft pick, Pick 7, for Kristian Jaksch, Mark Whiley and Pick 19 from GWS. The trade isn’t that bad in theory, as some clubs could find themselves in a situation where they’d prefer two players and a later pick to an early pick, but Jaksch and Whiley would be complete busts, and would both be gone by 2017. Pick 19, which could have been used on someone like Toby McLean or Hugh Goddard, was used on 21 year old Blaine Boekhurst, who lasted three years and 25 games. None of the players Carlton drafted in 2014 remain at the club today; the only one still playing in the AFL, Billy Gowers, was a rookie pick who would be delisted, picked up by the Western Bulldogs, and be their leading goalkicker in 2018. The four players they picked in the national draft played a combined 32 games, and two never even debuted, which cruelly denied us that chance for BT to commentate a game featuring Dillon Viojo-Rainbow.
Carlton’s 2014 draft is possibly the worst in recent memory, with the only upside being Liam Jones, who they traded in as a key forward, but ended up reinventing himself as a defender. Also, the pick they traded for him was used on premiership player Caleb Daniel. So their one positive was by complete accident, and debatably a worse decision than drafting Daniel. The 2014 draft was Shane Roger’s last as list manager, and he would be replaced by Carlton and AFL fullback of the century Stephen Silvagni.
It's All Over Now, Baby Blue, 2015
In front of the press before the start of the home-and-away season, Malthouse announced that;
I shouldn’t say this in front of the cameras, but it’s very, very difficult to see where we’re going to lose a game… I can’t see it. I’m an optimist. I look at them at think: ‘Gee, they’re a good bunch of kids’, I love them and I reckon they can get the best out of themselves and we can have a damn good year.
Such optimism lasted not very long after the pre-season, and Carlton had an even more dismal start to the season than the year before; by round 8, the club sat at the bottom of the ladder with a record of 1-7. These included a four losses by 69 points or more.
Despite the previously held optimism, Chief Executive Steven Trigg and President Mark LoGiudice publicly declared that the club was rebuilding not long into the season. On May 25, the Monday after round 8, it was announced that Malthouse’s position would be reviewed by the round 11 bye week. But they didn’t need to wait that long. The next day, Malthouse had an interview on SEN 1116, and openly criticised the way the club was run. Much like Joss Whedon after people saw the cinematic whatever Alien Resurrection, none of this was his fault, it was clearly everyone elses, blaming poor performances on the talk of rebuilding. “I will not be standing down,” he said on SEN. Asked if that meant he would have to be sacked, he answered “Either that or they reappoint me”. That afternoon, Malthouse’s contract was terminated. John Barker took over as the caretaker coach, and the club didn’t do much better, finishing with a record of 4-18.
The combination of multiple good players leaving for nothing in 2013-2014, the aging stars on the list suddenly retiring or about to be retired, the mostly poor drafting from 2008-2014, and the loss of coach and confidence in the playing group meant that the club was forced to take drastic action, and in the 2015 draft, Carlton did the best thing they could; acknowledge that the list was in complete disrepair, and set about fixing it in one of the most comprehensive rebuilds a side as ever seen. A club that had already seen many of its players depart under Malthouse saw many retirements and delistings, traded out Lachie Henderson, Tom Bell, Chris Yarran and Troy Menzel, and hit the draft hard. Chris Judd, David Ellard and Andrew Carazzo retired not with Carlton’s seventeenth premiership, but with its fourth wooden spoon.
The Real Folk Blues, In Summary
Malthouse’s time in charge of the Carlton football club was so incredibly awful, so impossibly destructive, and so unbelievably devastating, that some believe he was sent there as a Collingwood plant to ruin them, as few find it possible that a coach with a resume like Malthouse could possibly take an in its prime list, and shred it utterly in just three seasons by accident.
Many of the issues Carlton faced in 2015, if on their own, could have been dealt with; an ill-suited coach can be replaced, aging retired stars can give way to younger players, players leaving can be traded for good value. But the dominoes that had piled up for years fell down like a house of cards, and it was checkmate for the potential dynasty of the Carlton Blues.
The club’s drafting was exposed as flawed; they hadn’t drafted a great many skilled players since they’d acquired Judd and Kruezer in 2007. In 2005-2007, other than each year’s first pick, the only players they drafted who would play more than 50 games for Carlton were Paul Bower and Dennis Armfield. Their 2008 draft was actually quite good, as they drafted Mitch Robinson and Chris Yarran. But following this, Sam Rowe was the only player they drafted in the national draft from 2009-2012 would play more than 50 games at Carlton. In fact their best players they’d drafted in this time, Zach Touhy, Levi Casboult and Ed Curnow, were bizarrely all drafted in the rookie draft instead of the national draft.
In the 2015-2017 drafts, Carlton moved on a total of 42 players, including best 22 level Zach Tuohy and Bryce Gibbs, in an effort to rebuild again. And while this rebuild is slowly paying off, it meant the club endured more years of pain and heartache, as well another wooden spoon, and the knowledge that if they’d steadied the ship when they had the chance, then none of this would have needed to happen. Fans used to a powerful club that hadn’t won a single wooden spoon from 1897-2001 were now having to comprehend supporting a club that had suddenly acquired five in the next 18 (2002, 2005, 2006, 2015, 2018).
In the modern AFL, senior coaches rarely get second gigs, unlike other sports where coaches or managers having careers in charge of multiple clubs isn’t out of the ordinary; in the AFL, if you’re let go, then you’re toxic waste, and were clearly fired because you weren’t good enough. However Brett Ratten, in defiance of modern hiring practices, did get another senior coaching gig, and is currently the coach of St Kilda. The fact that Ratten got hired when other talented ex-coaches weren’t goes to show just how strong the perception is that it was a mistake it was for Carlton to fire him.
Many seem to have forgotten the 2008-2013 era of Carlton being decent, lumping it with the period of poor performances on either side of it, but Carlton in 2012 was a team on the verge of becoming something amazing. But a combination of poor recent drafts, an aging list, poorly timed injuries, a fractured playing group, a greedy and impatient administration, and an incredibly bad choice of senior coach would lead to the team stumbling at the last hurdle, and its fans, bereft of success, would find themselves waiting again, in sadness. I guess that’s why they call them the Blues.
Players on Carlton’s list in 2012 still at Carlton as of 2020 season
Players on Carlton’s list in 2012 not at Carlton as of 2020 season
I hope people enjoyed this AFL Collapse. I'm keen on possibly writing more, such as St Kilda's collapse after the 2010 grand final, and Sydney in the late 1980s. I also want to know if there's anything innaccurate in the post, or anything I missed that would be useful information to have. I've also written collapse articles on Brisbane after their threepeat, and Essendon after the 2001 Grand Final.
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How have the most successful teams in terms of league titles performed in other domestic competitions around the world?

This has been something I've been studying for a while but been having a very difficult time trying to convey and hopefully I've found the right way to do so.
I get it: of course teams that win a lot of league titles also tend to win a lot of domestic competitions. This post isn't going to dispute that, it's more of just a "hey, this is interesting to know" kind of thing. It might have been more interesting to look at clubs that have won domestic competitions and not league titles but truthfully, that list is going to be exceptionally long. But that doesn't take away from what teams like Wigan, Swansea City, Zaragoza, Leverkusen, Parma, Rennes, Braga, Rostov, and Vitesse have accomplished in this respect. It's true that such competitions may be secondary (ex. FA Cup) or even tertiary (ex. EFL Cup), but that doesn't mean one should discredit the work that went into winning these. These pieces of silverware are nothing to hold your heads down over.
I was going to do more Asian and African nations but sadly, I'm suffering a bit of a burnout looking at stats so please forgive me there. I welcome any suggestions in the comments.
Without further ado, here we go.
Albania (Tirana):
Andorra (Santa Coloma):
Argentina* (River Plate):
Armenia (Pyunik):
Australia (Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC, w/Perth Glory if you count just premierships)\*:
Austria (Rapid Wien):
Azerbaijan (Neftchi Baku):
Belarus (BATE):
Belgium (Anderlecht):
Bosnia and Herzegovina (Željezničar and Zrinjski):
Brazil (Palmeiras):
Bulgaria (CSKA):
Canada (Toronto FC and Forge FC*):
Chile (Colo-Colo):
China (Guangzhou Evergrande Taobao and Liaoning):
Colombia (Atlético Nacional):
Croatia (Dinamo Zagreb):
Cyprus (APOEL):
Czech Republic (Sparta Prague):
Denmark (Copenhagen):
Ecuador* (Barcelona):
Egypt (Al-Ahly):
England (Manchester United):
Estonia (Flora):
Faroe Islands (HB):
Finland (HJK):
France (Saint-Etienne, and Marseille if you count their amateur title):
Georgia (Dinamo Tbilisi):
Germany (Bayern Munich):
Gibraltar (Lincoln Red Imps):
Greece (Olympiacos):
Hungary (Ferencváros):
Iceland (KR):
Ireland (Shamrock Rovers):
Iran (Persepolis):
Israel (Maccabi Tel Aviv):
Italy (Juventus):
Japan (Kashima Antlers and Sanfrecce Hiroshima):
Kazakhstan (Astana):
Kosovo (Prishtina):
Latvia (Ventspils):
Lithuania (Žalgiris Vilnius):
Luxembourg (Jeunesse Esch):
Malta (Sliema Wanderers):
Mexico (América):
Moldova (Sheriff):
Montenegro (Sutjeska):
Netherlands (Ajax):
Northern Ireland (Linfield):
North Macedonia (Vardar):
Norway (Rosenborg):
Paraguay (Olimpia):
Peru* (Universitario):
Poland (Ruch Chorzów and Górnik Zabrze):
Portugal (Benfica):
Qatar (Al-Saad):
Romania (FCSB):
Russia (Spartak Moscow):
San Marino (Tre Fiori):
Saudi Arabia (Al-Nassr):
Scotland (Rangers):
Serbia (Red Star):
Slovakia (Slovan Bratislava):
Slovenia (Maribor):
South Korea (Pohang Steelers):
Spain (Real Madrid):
Sweden (Malmö):
Switzerland (Grasshopper):
Turkey (Galatasaray or Fenerbahçe depending on how you start the count*):
Ukraine (Dynamo Kyiv):
Uruguay (Peñarol):
United States (LA Galaxy):
Venezuela (Caracas):
Wales (Barry Town):
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Australian Open First Round Women's Singles

Apologies I did not know matches started today and this is going up late. I wrote the first half of these earlier and didn't want to seem smart after the fact so I left my predictions as written even if I had already seen the results.
Barty Tsurenko : Barty is the player in the best form coming into this AO and she’s playing on home soil. She actually looks slimmer than ever, and played with a ton of energy in her victory this past week. Tsurenko had a quick exit at the hands of Mertens which isn’t bad at all given Mertens skilled play and consistent performance as a favorite, but there isn’t much to suggest that she’ll test Barty here given her gameplan is generally to keep the ball in play and wear down her opponent into making errors. Barty in 2.
Hercog Peterson : Hercog has been somewhat inactive to start the year and I’m not sure if she’s dealing with an injury or not. Her last appearance on tour was a title win at the Kremlin Cup, and if you’ve never seen her play Polona is a very skillful player whose only fault really is a failure to put it all together when she plays one of the top tier players. Peterson has had a quiet early season and had to retire in Hobart against Fiona Ferro who sounds like a pokemon gym leader. This could be a match of two injured players but tennis doesn’t bother to report injuries like normal sports so I’m inclined to believe Hercog’s offense will outlast Peterson’s consistency. Hercog in 3.
Sasnovich Minnen : Greet Minnen is becoming a household name and coming through qualifying on the WTA is likely a harder task than the ATP given how many top tier players go through slumps and wind up there. Minnen dropped only one set en route but might drop a few here. Sasnovich doesn’t beat the top 20 often but she has very solid results in the early rounds. This could go 3 given Minnen’s form but I think Sasnovich likely comes through. Sasnovich in 3.
Pera Rybakina : This line looks tight with Rybakina only -175 but I suppose after a run mirroring Rublev of two finals and one title they’re expecting fatigue to become an issue at some point. Rybakina has a pretty solid serve, is tall and hits big. This is a good formula and Pera’s speed and defense will be tested here. Pera has nabbed enough wins to always start on tour but no deep runs in events. It’s unlikely that she’s able to beat Rybakina here unless fatigue becomes a factor. Rybakina in 2.
Riske Wang : Yafan Wang always seems like she’s going to lose and I never bet against her. Chinese tennis really boasts some of the more grounded athletes, as they rarely smash raquets or give up on matches. Riske is great when she’s playing well, and can barely find the court when she isn’t. She’s had a good winter and a good quality of tennis in her January, and she should find the finish line here. Riske in 2-3.
Golubic Zhu : Golubic is my favorite player to back who will lose 6-1 and then turn it around and pitch a shutout in the second set. Zhu has similar scorelines, and in a match in the Australian heat, I do expect this to go three. Golubic likely has the more dominant offense, and she should have an edge in the third. Golubic in 3.
Goerges Kuzmova : Julia Goerges seems like she should win every WTA event when she’s in form. Then there are the other times. Kuzmova will test her and is a threat against any 20-50 level player. Goerges will have the match on her raquet in this one. Will she keep it on the court long enough to get in a groove? Probably. Goerges in 2-3.
It feels goofy listing so many matches in 2-3 sets as that’s somewhat of a copout but if you follow the WTA you know that momentum is huge and the 2/3 format comes down to a few key points in each matchup. Very hard to provide concrete results when levels are similar and the WTA boasts a great deal of depth.
McHale Martic : This is another line that seems cheap at -230, given Martic’s ability to compete with the top players on the WTA and her deep runs in major events. McHale is a good all-around tennis player but I haven’t seen anything to suggest that she should beat Martic, who fared ok in Auckland before losing to Cornet in a threesetter. I think this is a winnable match for Martic and with Goerges/Kuzmova waiting, there is a good chance that Martic will know she can make a deep run if she plays solid. Martic in 2.
Keys Kasatkina : Kasatkina has been hapless on hardcourt for a while and it’s strange to watch as she formerly was a master at court coverage and frustrated opponents with dropshots and variety. There was a time that Keys would likely lose to a player who makes her play the extra ball but she seems to have settled her nerves and usually plays her best at a major event. Keys in 2.
Linette Rus : Magda Linette had some quality wins at the end of 2019, and Rus is always tricky but is way more of a threat on grass. Linette should have her way here. Linette in 2.
Hibino Peng : Hibino who had dropped off the tour level quality for a while did well to come through qualifying. Her reward is a slightly worse than usual but still quality Peng. Peng played Alexandrova tight in Shenzen before falling, and this should be a close contest with Hibino playing her best tennis. Someone with a cool name in 3.
Gasparyan Sakkari : Garsparyan reminds me a bit of Marius Copil, and the onehanded backhand on the women’s tour is always cool to watch. Her serving is solid, but this is a poor matchup for her due to Sakkari’s athletic ability. A player who struggles with possessing too much variety, choosing tactics is fairly simple against Gasparyan. You have to move her around, or her power is very effective. I think Sakkari can defend against it however, and she should get herself going here early in a nice spot in the draw. Sakkari in 2.
Alexandrova Teichmann : Teichmann is pretty solid at holding serve but Alexandrova is coming off a title run where I don’t recall even seeing her get broken. This one may feature a tiebreaker or two but the writing is on the wall and Alexandrova is starting to become someone who should be in the discussion for deep runs at a major. Alexandrova in 2.
Kanepi Krejcikova : This line makes me awfully suspicious that Krejcikova is simply going to win this matchup. Kanepi is one of the most consistent “show up and win matches at majors” names and she has a big serve and solid groundstrokes. She reminds me of Serena light with her gamestyle, but Vegas rarely lets their action get unbalanced, so I’m inclined to think she’ll have her hands full with Krej, who isn’t always the best on tour but played well in koalifying (see what i did there). Krejcikova in 2-3 (Vegas knows best, but I’ll be avoiding this one altogether as I believe confusion is the seed of paranoia if you act on it when you have the opportunity to simply wait and see the answer).
Badosa Larsson : Upset alert. Larsson was a name I was surprised to see in the qualies as she usually has a good indoor season but she was there and she came through nicely, pulling a few upsets in the process. Badosa had a good 2019 but Larsson will have the better serve here and a bit more experience on hardcourt. That should be the difference and getting close to former glory usually brings out the best in a qualifier. Larsson in 3.
Siniakova Kvitova : Kvitova and Siniakova can both gripe about this one. Siniakova is always a dangerous floater in the early rounds of majors, and although she CAN win this matchup, Kvitova showed up in her early events in very good form. The serve is the big difference here and should land Kvitova in the second round, although matches between compatriots often have squirrely results. Kvitova in 2.
Osaka Bouzkova : Bouzkova is a player who could outlast the former error prone Osaka, but probably not this version. Osaka was more consistent and more focused in her play in Brisbane, and likely will be able to hit through this one. I’d caution against playing the under, as when Osaka is dominating play she tends to go bigger and bigger until she forces shots she doesn’t need to, but in the third set and as comfortable as she is in Australia she usually will find a way to win. Osaka in 2-3.
Zheng Kalinskaya : Kalinskaya is an explosive player and I’ve been waiting for her to start making an impact on the tour. I think it starts here with Saisai Zheng. Zheng is consistent and a good retriever, but Kalinskaya boasts the type of power that should be able to break this down. She’s a young player, but it’s time to win. Kalinskaya in 3.
Williams Gauff : Williams was one of Gauff’s first victories, and while she didn’t immediately dominate the tour, she has improved since then. Venus Williams has been a great ambassador for the sport, but nobody calls you a great ambassador for the sport unless you’re in the second half of your career. Her serve and backhand are still excellent for hiding it, but her movement is not tour-level. Gauff should roll here unless nerves become an issue. Gauff in 2.
Cirstea Strycova : Slow start to the year for Strycova. Better start to the year for Cirstea, who struggles with consistency. This one is very hard to call as Strycova often steps it up in majors, and Cirstea has the power to win but often doesn’t produce. Strycova in 3.
Stephens Zhang : Zhang put on a clinic this past week of hitting the ball into the court. It was inspiring honestly seeing her keep her backhand level and just go for nothing. This isn’t criticism by any means, and keeping the ball on the court is worth a ton against Sloane Stephens. Sloane doesn’t make much effort in tournaments outside the majors, and habit becomes form after a while. The Sandgren/Stephens training regimen seems to be the same, and I can’t fault them for enjoying food but the rest of the tour looks emaciated and they look happy, plump, and winded. This will be a tough test but Sloane’s power (if she balls) will give her an edge over a long match. Zhang in 2 or Stephens in 3.
Stosur McNally : McNally has been getting involved on tour more and more recently, and while that hasn’t translated to victories just yet, it’s clear that she can ball. Stosur has been written off several times already, and consistently bounces back with victories. The serve/forehand combo coupled with her commitment to fitness keeps her a threat, and this is a good place for McNally’s tour to get started. Passing the torch is where it’s at, but on home soil this will be tough. McNally in 3 if she’s legit. Stosur in 2 if not.
Li Cabrera : This is a tough one, as Li played great tennis in the qualifiers. Cabrera is the next big thing out of Australia it seems, and her gutsy performance against Caroline Garcia proves she’s legit. Again I think this one goes three, and I think Li’s experience in the qualifiers will give her an edge in the deciding moments. Li in three.
Trevisan Kenin : Trevisan notched a nice win beating the overhyped Bouchard in qualfying, and I was hoping she’d play really … anyone else but Kenin. Kenin fared poorly against Collins last week, but there are some men’s tour players that might have. Kenin is plucky, but professional, and it’s unlikely she lets one loss trouble her for too long. Kenin in two.
Konta Jabeur : Ons Jabeur has such a fluid game, and it’s excellent to watch her hit forehand winners. Not a ton of variety though, and although Konta had a quick loss to Strycova to start her season, she is a good problem solver on court. Jabeur should nab a set here but Konta’s serving and super annoying ballbouncing should give her the edge. Konta in 3.
This is the point I had written to when I paused earlier, so I’ll skip the matches that are already completed going forward.
Brengle Garcia : Garcia has struggled since getting established as a top prospect on tour. Some public fueds with French tennis compatriots have me suspecting her ambition exceeds her talent, and it’ll be a rough year if she doesn’t get her level up. Brengle has a good chance to win this match and I think she’ll go down in 3 or pull it out. Brengle in 3.
Juvan Yastremska : Juvan would have been a tough draw for a lot of the other players, but Yastremska is playing the best tennis she ever has. She always had a ton of raw power but now she’s keeping the ball in the court. If you saw her dismiss Kerber you know she’s a legit top 10 talent. Yastremska in 2.
Wang Parmentier : Parmentier always manages to win some matches you don’t expect her to, and this is mostly because I don’t really expect her to win any matches. I don’t expect her to win this one either, as Wang has proved herself a cut above the middle tier of the WTA. Wang in 3.
Ferro Van Uytvanck : Van Uytvanck is cool, friendly, and has a great serve. She pulled out of her last event though with an unknown injury so I’m not sure what to expect from her here. She should be able to beat Ferro who is a French talent still learning the ropes on tour, but if she’s injured this may prove difficult. Van Uytvanck in 3, but likely avoid this one.
Bencic Schmiedlova : Anna has a nice game, but doesn’t really beat top 20 talents. Bencic had her best season ever in 2019 and although she didn’t bring much against Collins last week, she has the talent to get through this one. Bencic in 2.
Samsonova Ostapenko : I really did like Ostapenko training and getting back in gear at the end of last year, but the late in the year surge is not always a sign of continued success. It’s garbage time for a lot of the top players, and randoms usually prosper. Samsonova is my favorite player on the WTA right now; she boasts a very well rounded game, big groundstrokes, and a solid serve. She’s been on a heater the past few weeks, and I think she is the perfect candidate to further frustrate Ostapenko, who really needs to get a real coaching team in her corner, or actually get in shape. Samsonova in 2-3.
Sorribes Tormo Kudermetova : These are long beautiful names. This will be a long beautiful match. Who wins? Not sure. Kudermetova is randomly favored to beat a lot of players and loses in two. That kind of streaky behavior is something Tormo has exhibited in the past as well. Someone in 3 and they lose to Kontaveit the next round anyway so I feel less terrible for being lost about this outcome.
Sharma Kontaveit : Sharma is making her way nicely onto the tour and should have future success. Playing Kontaveit in the first round of a major is not really the best situation, and she’ll be able to swing freely, but isn’t quite there yet to compete at this level. Kontaveit in 2.
Vekic Sharapova : Sharapova has been hitting the exhibition tour, which is good because she cannot win on the professional tennis tour. In short, the tour has passed her by and her mobility is an issue. Vekic certainly has the game to beat her, and while Sharapova can hit big and get to tiebreakers, every opponent in the draw is literally a threat to remove her from it. Vekic in 3.
Cornet Niculescu : Nice to see Monica back on tour. I am a big fan of the finesse players on the women’s tour and her inside out slices on the forehand wing are really fun to watch. Variety is the name of the game here and while Cornet is very skilled, she plays a much more straightforward game which could see this one going deep into the third. Cornet in 3.
Swiatek Babos : Swiatek is a baller, and her inactivity due to injury had me actually excited to see her name in the draw here. The pickem odds against Babos lend themselves to the idea that she’s not exactly back to form, and given this there’s no real way to predict this. An in-form Swiatek can beat Babos probably 75% of the time, but Babos hits big and depending on her health, she could steal a win.
Suarez Navarro Sabalenka : Suarez Navarro winning matches at majors that she’s not supposed to is kinda her thing. While she doesn’t wear a jean jacket vest and rep the same gang as the Fonz, that’s kinda how I always imagine her. 2018 and 2019 Sabalenka can lose to her, but not 2020 Sabalenka. She lost a bunch of weight, and the power is still there but with a bit less anxiousness which translates to wins. Sabalenka in 2-3.
Mertens Kovinic : Mertens is pretty much perfect, and her position on tour reminds me of Bertens and Berdych, in that she’s clearly capable of winning a major but probably won’t get the chance to. The brother of famed explorer Finn Mertens, she has a similar crop of golden hair, and a similar positive attitude. I dunno Kovinic, and I’m clearly crushing hard on Mertens so I won’t say she has a chance. Mertens in 2.
Pliskova Watson : Which Pliskova is this? Doesn’t matter. Watson gets hot on serve and gets to tiebreakers, and that’s good for a set against Kristyna. A good start to 2019 though should have the big lefty server through to the second round here,but it’ll be decided on momentum and a few points at the end of each set. Pliskova in 3.
Bellis Maria : They must know something I don’t know, because Bellis has been in poor form since returning to the tour and Maria is almost +250 on some sites. I expect a closer match than the books but they may know something about the decline of Maria’s game, and with her tendency towards slices she’s certainly better off on grass/clay. I think Maria wins in 3, but I’m fairly certain I’ll be proven wrong if either Bellis is finding her old form, or Maria is on her retirement swing.
Flipkens Muchova : Last I saw Flipkens was getting frustrated playing in the wind against in Hobart against eventual champion Zhang. She had that match largely won but her slices hung up nicely in the breeze for Zhang to drive over and over. Is it windy in Australia? Will the hardhitting Muchova show up? This is the classic Flipkens matchup where she has the skill to compete and frustrate her opponent, but ultimately is utilizing it to hide her movement and lack of power. I expect this to go three, and calling a winner is basically guessing. I won’t do it. I’ll do it. Muchova.
Collins Diatchenko : Collins is crushing the ball and should handle this in two sets.
Putintseva Hsieh : One player smashes raquets and spazzes when she misses. The other seems to be playing pingpong and smiles when she gets lucky. Putintseva is actually notching some wins on tour after 2019 struggles and that makes her a threat in this match, but I think Hsieh has more talent and better physical attributes. Small edge to Hsieh and given that most of her losses come in three sets against top tier opponents, she should get this one in three. Hsieh in 3.
Dart Doi : Dart came through qualifying, and that’s a solid indication that she can compete here. Doi is a frustrating player who uses her quickness to make up for her lack of power. I don’t think Dart will have a tough time holding serve here and given her experience on the courts in pressure moments she shouldn’t blink when the business end of the sets arrive. Dart in 3.
Brady Halep : Rough one for Halep to open up with. Brady could beat her, simple as that. A good serve and an inside out forehand are really the only shots Brady employs, but that’s good beans when they’re working. Halep hasn’t done much to start the year, and I expect this to go three sets. No pick.
Svitolina Boulter : Is Svitolina injured? Her quick exit to Collins made it seem so, but given her relative past success I don’t think she’s in Melbourne just to pick up a check, and the air quality lends itself to people with actual injuries withdrawing. Katie Boulter is another young player making her way on tour, but this is not the way. Svitolina in 2.
Davis Fernandez : I haven’t seen Fernandez play yet but Canadian tennis is in good shape looking at her results and given her qualifier victory. Lauren Davis is a plucky nugget and has had a recent resurgence. A good opportunity to set up a clash of similar styles with her and Svitolina is something she should take advantage of, but Fernandez won’t make it easy. Davis in 3.
Muguruza Rogers : I usually don’t endorse backing Muguruza but I did a little bit early this year. She can get into really bad slumps and her timing seems to disappear sometimes. I don’t think she’s 100% into tennis all the time and she has a lot of other interests (these can all be seen on her app she made which she named MUGURUZA and tbh I don’t think anyone makes an app about themselves and names it like Prince unless they’ve got some goals besides tennis). Rogers is probably playing the best tennis she has since her Charleston run a few seasons back. and she has a legit chance to win here. The backhand is a liability for Rogers, and Mugu is definitely the better athlete. Mugu’s errors or Rogers’ one dimensional game will be the flaw that causes one of these players to fall, but it will likely be in three sets. Muguruza in 3.
Tomljanovic Sevastova : Autocorrect is signaling me from across the room that it wants to change these names, but that because autocorrect doesn’t respect good tennis. Sevastova is angry when she arrives on court, and Ajla has consistently stolen sets in matches against top ten ranked opponents. I think this one will be a cracker, and although Sevastova has had the better results historically in majors, she hasn’t really won a lot of matches on tour lately. Tomljanovic in 3.
Anisimova Diyas : Diyas was a ballmachine in her last event, falling to Muguruza but not before outlasting Blinkova in a 3 hour war. Anisimova managed to struggle with Bouchard and was making a ton of impatient errors. It’s great to have her back on tour as she has one of the best backhands you’ll see, but I don’t think this will be as straightforward an affair as the books do. Diyas’ speed and consistency coupled with Anisimova’s rust and errors should have this in two or three tight sets. I don’t quite think Diyas has the edge to beat Amanda though. Anisimova in 2-3.
Paolini Blinkova : Paolini is dangerous but Blinkova is a tad bit better on hardcourt. Blinkova in 3.
Bondarenko Rodionova : Riding the confidence from competing against Sloane will be good for Rodionova coming into this one. Bondarenko is a good tour player but not really overwhelming, and I think this is one of the first wildcard victories I’m predicting on the women’s side. Rodionova in 2.
Begu Bertens : Bertens is simply one of the best players on the tour, and I’d really like to see her win or make the finals of a major this year, as there are younger players whose time is approaching in the next few years. Begu is a good starting point, and while she has a big serve and some heavy power on the forehand, she is at times hampered by her height and movement. This will be no bueno against Bertens. Bertens in 2, and if she loses the first it’s likely Bertens in 3.
Voundrousova Kuznetsova : Voundrousova is easily in the 6-10 range on tour, and her reward is one of the unseeded players you really don’t want to play. Kuznetsova went lights out at one event last year, and played poorly in the rest. She knows how to win and is a veteran so there’ll be no pressure. This match could boast a lot of high level rallies, but Marketa should have the goods to finish them. Voundrousova in 3.
Lottner Giorgi : I really enjoy Lottner’s attitude on court. Qualifying for a major is a once in a lifetime moment and playing someone who can hit themselves right out of a match is a bonus. Lottner lacks power which will be tough against Giorgi who hits the ball faaaaaaast but if she can hang in, she may reap the benefit of unforced errors which have always derailed Giorgi’s game. Most likely though, Giorgi in two.
Kozlova Hon : Kozlova should win this match. She should win a lot of her matches. Hon can put together one set of brilliant tennis, and that’s why she’s into this event with a wildcard. There is a great deal of promise there. Kozlova in 3.
Cocciaretto Kerber : I haven’t watched Kerber’s opponent here, so I can’t offer much. Also I am quite sleepy.
Pavly_________ova Stojanovic : I haven’t watched Stojanovic although she’s been winning at the qualifier level a great deal over the past year, and Pavs has been very inconsistent since returning from injury. Not sure what to expect here.
Townsend Pegula : Pegula can ball as evidenced by her recent finals run in Auckland. Townsend played my favorite match of the year so far as her and Asia Mohammed defeated Serena and Wozniacki in the finals at Auckland. Townsend has such a unique and skilled game what with being lefty and actually believing in her shots that I almost don’t notice that she’s carrying a few extra lbs that the rest of the tour isn’t. She should be able to win a set here and could take the match if she gets a jump on Pegula, who is more of a frontrunner than anything. Still, Pegula’s had the better early season. Pegula in 3.
Siegemund Vandewedge : I’ll be cheering for Siegemund in this one. Coco’s attitude on court rubs me the wrong way, and her supreme confidence is based on a whole lot of nothing. Siegemund on the other hand has played through a ton of injuries and goes big on her groundstrokes, which applies pressure to her opponents. Coco’s not much for defense, but has her own dominant groundgame when she’s playing well. Siegemund in 3.
Mladenovic Pliskova : Tough opener for Pliskova, and tough opener for Mladenovic. Hard to see Pliskova struggling too much in this one although Mladenovic is one of the more skilled players on tour. I’m sure we’ll get to see her ply her craft later this year, but for this one it’s one way traffic. Pliskova in 2.
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“You know, I don’t understand you Eddie. We got lucky. That accidental Grand Final appearance was a bolt from beyond. The injury profile was no fucking good, with the fucking hamstrings all the time and the fucking scandals.” – The /r/AFL 2019 Collingwood Magpies season preview

So here we are. A year and a half on from Buckley being within an inch of losing his job following a tense year of media speculation and frenzy. The club came less than a kick from its sixteenth premiership. And it would have been one for the ages. All through my social media feeds, cries of “football’s coming home” echoed as my beloved Pies shuffled through the top 4, even flirting with top 2 at times.
And then, with 90 seconds remaining in the season, it was over. My head was pointed at the floor as I could hear my non-Collingwood supporting friends suppressing laughter. Someone whom I didn’t like very much (who doesn’t follow football) immediately came over and said to me “well, now you can be sociable with the rest of us.” Having just faced a pain indescribable, and consumed a number of drinks, I instantly responded with a highly inappropriate remark and made my way to the toilet (I can’t remember if I urinated or cried). Later on, I re-joined the party for the rest of the evening, and was praised for how well I handled the loss on the whole. As time has gone on though, the pain only seems to grow.
I had the last laugh though. All through Grand Final week, West Coast supporters on /AFL grew increasingly frustrated with me as I began posting more Collingwood articles. They were enraged over me daring to suggest the Pies were not the favourites just because it was being played at the MCG, downvoting me relentlessly when I reminded them of the game just a month and a half back at the MCG between the two sides. You may have won the premiership, Eagles, but I won the argument.
If you couldn’t tell, I was attempting to open this preview with something resembling humour. On the whole, I think I will be writing this with mostly a positive spin, and given I have a lot of thoughts on the topic of the Collingwood Football Club, this is probably going to be quite lengthy. I hope it remains interesting throughout – please note that I haven't written this in order so apologies if it comes across as disjointed.
I will start with some brief details about the club, before looking back to the 2018 season. I will then discuss the 2019 list, including the best 22, before ending with the preview-proper for the 2019 season.
Thank you to scratchy09 with assisting me with this preview, thank you to PM_ME_YOUR_BANGERS for arranging the season previews, and thank you to the /AFL community for putting up with my at-times one-eyed support of Collingwood. Enjoy, and good luck to all teams for 2019!

History

Est: 1892
Premierships (VFL/AFL): 15
Last premiership: 2010
Grounds: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Marvel Stadium, Olympic Park Oval (training)
Key Administration:

2018 season overview

H&A Ladder position: 3 (15 wins, 7 losses)
EW Copeland Trophy (BnF): Brodie Grundy/Steele Sidebottom
Leading goalkicker: Jordan De Goey (48 goals)
All-Australian representation: Brodie Grundy, Steele Sidebottom (Jordan De Goey and Scott Pendlebury named in initial squad)
AFL debutants:
Other notables: NAB AFL Rising Star 2018 (Jaidyn Stephenson)

2018 season review

Collingwood entered the season with a lot of people (including myself) doubting just how effective we could be. The playing list was not greatly improved upon compared to the 2017 list, there were doubts over the extension of Buckley’s contract, and news of pre-season injuries to key players such as Jamie Elliott, Alex Fasolo and Darcy Moore came trickling in. To make matters worse, Jordan De Goey became embroiled in yet another scandal for the second off-season in a row when he was caught drink-driving, and faced a hefty punishment from the club for doing so. The JLT matches were also uninspiring, even the win against the Bulldogs (which resulted in Tyson Goldsack tearing his ACL).
The club also entered the season with a lot the playing list out of contract at the end of 2018, and began poorly with two straight losses and looked doomed at the end of the first quarter against Carlton in Round 3. But then, something happened. Something clicked. All of a sudden, the Pies started firing and the club was on its way to a magical home and away season beyond anyone’s expectations.
The club, in my view, altered its game plan over the course of the season. To me, it seemed we began by taking advantage of the amount of midfielders on our list, by rotating them constantly in the forward line. That died away somewhat later in the season, when we employed something of a more traditional, static forward line.
The major story for the club over the season was the injuries. At one point, we were tied with Carlton for the most players on the injury list out of any club, and ended the season with the most experienced injury list (in terms of games played) out of any club. Out of the team that went unchanged throughout the finals only Jaidyn Stephenson, Josh Thomas and Jack Crisp did not face any kind of injury challenge (at least that was publically known) throughout the season. Even others that played every game had public clouds over them at some point. The silver lining here is that we expanded on our depth tremendously. By the end of the season, only six players on our list had not played a senior game in 2018, and only three had never played a senior game.
The club also was rocked by a fresh drug scandal late in the season, with new recruit Sam Murray testing positive in Round 19 against Richmond for cocaine, which is considered performance-enhancing on match day. I personally got over Murray Mania early, and would hate to see Murray off the nose beers if they really are performance-enhancing. Murray is facing a four-year ban from the game, which makes the already-controversial deal to trade him (then untried) from Sydney for a third-rounder and future second-rounder even more eye-raising.
Now, the Grand Final. So everyone likes joking that we choked because we led by five goals at one point in the first quarter, and everyone likes posting that image of the Eagles player holding the cup and cupping his ear with his hand. But here’s my take: even leading by as much as we were, I didn’t think it was sustainable, particularly after the Kennedy and Rioli goals late in the first. And really, I think choking implies we started out good but faltered. In my mind, we started off good, and remained good. But West Coast started poorly, and slowly worked their way into the game. Ultimately, the better team won but I think the game became a game of two teams giving their all for the majority of the day, rather than a team getting too ahead of itself and falling asleep. At least that’s what I tell myself.
Ultimately, the season was a very positive one regardless of that last Saturday in September, particularly when no one expected us to make finals, let alone the Grand Final. We overcame an enormous injury list, debuted fresh blood, overcame off-field issues (such as the scandals and the passing of Travis Varcoe’s sister) and seemed to develop a bond between the players that drove a lot of our success. Indeed, Bucks preached throughout the season that he just wanted players to come in and play a role, and many were asked to play in positions outside their comfort zone. Many players for us (such as Grundy, Sidebottom and Phillips) had career-best seasons.
Finally, a word on our trade and draft period. I was initially critical due to having so many players out of contract (and waiting until a bulk had re-signed to announce these). I was also annoyed that we failed to land big fish that we’d clearly been chasing for a long time such as Tom Lynch or Steven May (though I don’t think we ever would have been in a position to land May unless he waited to become a free agent). But I think landing Beams and Roughead are positives. Given our entire draft strategy seemed to revolve around matching bids for Quaynor and Kelly it was important that we not go into deficit for the 2019 draft. It’s amazing we managed to match for two players in the top 30 without doing so. The Roughead trade in particular helped with this, with the Bulldogs accepting a pick that had no points attached to it.
We also added to our small forward depth (after losing Fasolo, Blair and Kirby) with Academy boy Atu Bosenavulagi. We had another Academy player, ruck Bailey Wraith, however we decided not to pick him up and he did not end up drafted anywhere. Even if the club was not keen on him, as a completionist I would have liked the full set. We have one spot available on the list for a third Category B rookie, and if a club nominates players it’s entitled to prior to the draft (as Collingwood did for Wraith) they can choose to pick up these players as a Category B if they are not drafted. I personally think we should have done this for Wraith.
As for the Beams trade? Well, some say that we gave up too much for a 29 year old, but you always pay kidnappers overs for the safe return of your children.

2019 Playing List

Guernsey number Player Typical position Games played Age at start of R1, 2019 Contracted until
1 Jaidyn Stephenson Forward 26 20 2021
2 Jordan De Goey Forward 50 23 2020
3 Daniel Wells Midfielder 257 34 2019
4 Brodie Grundy Ruck 108 24 2020 (RFA)
5 Jamie Elliott Forward 89 26 2019 (RFA)
6 Tyson Goldsack* Defender 165 31 2019 (UFA)
7 Adam Treloar Midfielder 139 26 2021
8 Tom Langdon Defender 80 24 2021 (RFA)
9 Sam Murray (a) Defender 13 21 2019
10 Scott Pendlebury* (c) Midfielder 277 31 2020 (UFA)
11 Dayne Beams* Midfielder 168 29 2022
12 Matthew Scharenberg Defender 31 23 2020
13 Taylor Adams Midfielder 120 25 2024 (FA)
14 James Aish Midfielder 68 23 2020
15 Lynden Dunn Defender 196 31 2019
16 Chris Mayne Midfielder 196 30 2020
17 Callum Brown Midfielder 13 20 2020
18 Travis Varcoe Forward 205 30 2019
19 Levi Greenwood Midfielder 135 30 2019
20 Ben Reid* Forward 142 29 2019 (UFA)
21 Tom Phillips Midfielder 50 22 2019
22 Steele Sidebottom* Midfielder 211 28 2021 (UFA)
23 Jordan Roughead Defender 138 28 2020
24 Josh Thomas Forward 67 27 2021 (UFA)
25 Jack Crisp Defender 110 25 2023 (FA)
26 Josh Daicos Forward 12 20 2020
27 Will Kelly Defender 0 18 2020
28 Nathan Murphy Defender 2 19 2020
29 Tim Broomhead (a) Forward 36 24 2019
30 Darcy Moore Defender 54 23 2020
31 Flynn Appleby (a) Defender 9 20 2020
32 Will Hoskin-Elliott Forward 74 25 2022
33 Rupert Wills Midfielder 6 25 2019
34 Tyler Brown Midfielder 0 19 2020
35 Isaac Quaynor Defender 0 19 2020
36 Brayden Sier Midfielder 12 21 2019
37 Brayden Maynard Defender 73 22 2020
38 Jeremy Howe Defender 162 28 2021
39 Ben Crocker Forward 23 22 2019
40 Atu Bosenavulagi Forward 0 18 2020
41 Brody Mihocek (a) Forward 16 26 2020
43 Anton Tohill (a) Forward 0 19 2021
44 Jack Madgen (b) Defender 4 25 2020
45 Max Lynch (a) Ruck 0 20 2019
46 Mason Cox Forward 44 28 2020
47 Mark Keane (b) Defender 0 19 2021
\ - 2010 Premiership player*
a - Category A Rookie
b – Category B rookie
c – Captain
Some notes on contracts:

Outs for 2019

Alex Fasolo Free agency (now playing for Carlton Blues)
Sam Murray Delisted (re-rookied)
Jarryd Blair Delisted (now playing for Port Melbourne VFL)
Sam McLarty Delisted (now playing for Williamstown VFL)
Kayle Kirby Retired
Tim Broomhead Delisted (re-rookied)
Josh Smith Delisted (now playing for West Coast Eagles)
Adam Oxley Delisted (now playing for Collingwood VFL)

Ins for 2019

Anton Tohill Category B rookie selection (recruited as Category A due to rules regarding multiple Irish players on playing list)
Mark Keane Category B rookie selection
Jordan Roughead Traded from Western Bulldogs for pick 75
Dayne Beams Traded from Brisbane Lions (as well as picks 41 and 44) in exchange for picks 18 and 56 and Collingwood's future first-round pick
Isaac Quaynor AFL National Draft pick 13 (Next Generation Academy player, matched bid from GWS)
Will Kelly AFL National Draft pick 29 (father-son, matched bid from Adelaide)
Atu Bosenavulagi AFL National Draft pick 77 (Next Generation Academy player, no bid)
Tim Broomhead AFL Rookie Draft pick 17 (redrafted after delisting)
Sam Murray AFL Rookie Draft pick 33 (redrafted after delisting)

Pragmatic_Shill’s best 22 (+ 4 emergencies) for Collingwood in 2019

B Langdon Dunn Scharenberg
HB Howe Moore Maynard
C Phillips Pendlebury Sidebottom
HF Hoskin-Elliott Mihocek De Goey
F Stephenson Cox Thomas
Foll Grundy Adams Beams
Int Crisp Treloar Sier Varcoe
Emer Mayne Reid Aish Goldsack
Some notes on this selection:

Players to watch for 2019

No, it’s not a meme. Brayden Sier is the most exciting prospect at Collingwood. Playing 12 games in 2018, including all finals, he instantly made an impact to the team after a chat with Bucks pre-season about taking his footy more seriously. Already compared favourably to Sydney’s Josh Kennedy, this bloke is a big bustling midfield machine, and the sheer arrogance of his perfectly weighted handballs over the top of the opposition is delicious. Had Sier debuted earlier in the season I think he would have earned a Rising Star nomination however will be ineligible come 2019 due to both age and games played.
A confirmation of how much he is valued came following the second loss to Richmond in Round 19. Sier did not play due to a corkie sustained the previous week, with Bucks saying “we missed him.” High praise for a guy who had only played three and a half games up to that point.
Sier does need to improve on some things though. He often starts on the bench and plays limited minutes, therefore indicating a need to work on his tank. Secondly, he may need to add more to his game beyond being a pure mid (he’s only kicked two goals in the AFL for instance). Nonetheless, beware the Bear in 2019.
Maybe a weird choice, and may not even play a senior game in 2019, but I was intrigued by comments our list manager Ned Guy made prior to Christmas in 2018. Brown came to the club at the 2017 draft after we matched a bid from Port at pick 50 (as a father-son). Our previous list manager, Derek Hine, stated that the club had been open with the Brown family that we would not match for Brown if a bid came too early. Brown is a taller and lankier than his older brother Callum, and was very raw and under-developed when drafted. We probably would have just risked playing 21 blokes instead of debuting Tyler had the injury list become catastrophic.
However, in November 2018, Guy said “we're really excited. He was looking a million dollars today at training. We think he, like his dad (club great Gavin Brown), is physically going to explode any tick of the clock and we think he's going to add to us really quickly,” which is very intriguing.
I wrote in last year’s season preview that Maynard was one to watch for 2018. This was because it was revealed during last pre-season that Maynard was shadowing Pendlebury and would receive midfield time in 2018 (after spending some of R23 against Melbourne in 2017 there). However, this never eventuated as our injury list grew, often to our back six (Maynard himself copping an injury early in the season). Maynard has an arrogance and piggishness about him, and his hubris prior to the semi against GWS where he confidently stated he would towel up Toby Greene could have backfired horrendously. But it didn’t – he locked down Greene, and it made me start thinking about what the future holds. While Bucks only tags opposition players sparingly, when he does he uses Greenwood. Greenwood is enough of a prick to get in the ear of the opposition, such as Selwood or Martin. Where Greenwood fails, however, is when the player he is running with drags him to the forward line. Given that Maynard has been slated for midfield time for a couple of seasons now, given Greenwood is close to the end of his career, and given Maynard’s shutdown of Greene and ability to play strongly in defence, I think next season would be the perfect opportunity to experiment with Maynard as a tagger.
Honestly a surprise for me to include Murphy. Murphy was our second selection in the 2017 draft, choosing a football career after a promising start in junior cricket. Our former list manager, Derek Hine, noted that they originally had Murphy much higher than he was picked (pick 39) and were surprised that he slipped so far. Given his relatively recent start to football, I don’t think there was ever much expectation that he would debut in 2018, and he was originally sold as a potential small forward when drafted. He appeared to undergo something of a growth spurt over the course of 2018 and made a shift to defence in the VFL. When Sam Murray was a late out in Round 20 (more on this in the next section) the night before the game against Port Adelaide, Murphy was announced as making his debut. This was a shock – he wasn’t even named as an emergency the night before (owing to no defenders being on the emergency list)! He proceeded to play the final two games of the H&A season, before being dropped for the finals. Murphy showed positive signs and a willingness to contest the footy off halfback, and appears to play similarly to Goldsack or Howe in their traditional positions. I don’t see him playing senior footy early in the season barring something going drastically wrong, but watch this space for regular appearances later on. Since the debut (and regular playing) of Sier, Murphy seems to have become the latest cult hero on the Collingwood BigFooty board.

Players on notice for 2019

Say it isn’t so? Unfortunately, once I saw that Elliott had only signed a one-year extension I knew that his future at the club (and perhaps even football) post-2019 was contingent on getting his body right and potentially playing a minimum amount of senior games. It’s upsetting – no one can deny his talent and the look on his face when he re-injured his hamstring late in the VFL season broke my heart. Having visited (along with Darcy Moore) a German doctor during the pre-season who is an expert on hamstrings, there is hope that soft tissue injuries that have plagued him are a thing of the past. AFL.com.au reported just prior to Christmas that Elliott finished a training session early, however the Pies were quick to say this was just managing his loads. Hopefully we see him back out there in 2019.
As is well known, Murray is awaiting confirmation from ASADA on the outcome of a positive drug test in 2018 and is staring down the barrel of a four-year ban. I don’t think he’ll be as lucky as Josh Thomas and Lachie Keefe were in staying on the list. A personal theory I have is that if Murray is banned, he will be delisted and Collingwood will be allowed to access the new mid-season rookie draft to maintain a list spot. Having signed former senior player Adam Oxley to the VFL side, I could see us recruiting Oxley as part of this for the remainder of the season. While Oxley is not the best footballer, he is a defender like Murray, has AFL experience and appears to be popular with the other players – if Collingwood decides to go down this road, there are worse options to take.
I’ve grouped these two players together because I think they’re on notice for essentially the same reason. Wills is a big-bodied midfielder who to-date has only managed 6 senior games. He essentially is an older version of Sier, however regularly plays strongly in the VFL. Crocker is a small forward who is entirely forward depth, and often times can be a frustrating player to watch. His love for the club, and his popularity within the club, is evident though.
At the end of 2019, Wills and Crocker will both be out of contract, and in my view have not done enough to justify an extension of their contracts on merit (at a senior level, anyway). We also have six players out of contract at the end of 2019 who are distinct possibilities to retire (Goldsack, Dunn, Wells, Reid, Varcoe and Greenwood). Given our relatively weak draft hand, and the possibility of six players retiring, we may have to resort to giving Wills and Crocker contracts in order to maintain the integrity of our list. Essentially, Wills and Crocker may have timing fall their way.
Even though Wills and Crocker are not the best players, giving a contract extension to players who have already had years in the AFL system (and senior game experience) over the AFL handing us too many picks in the arse-end of the draft to fill list spaces created by multiple retirements plus delistings, would be preferable.

2019 fixture preview

Collingwood players drafted for AFLX
Player Team
Scott Pendlebury (pick 3) Flyers
Steele Sidebottom (pick 6) Bolts
Travis Varcoe (pick 17) Deadly
Jaidyn Stephenson (pick 26) Bolts
JLT matches
Date Opponent Home or Away Where Time
Monday 4 March Fremantle Dockers Away HBF Arena 3:40pm AWST
Monday 11 March Carlton Blues Home Morwell Recreation Reserve 2:10pm AEDT
Notable matches during the 2019 Premiership Season
Date Occasion Opponent Home or Away Where Time
Friday 22 March Round 1 Geelong Cats Home MCG 7:50pm AEDT
Thursday 18 April Easter Thursday Brisbane Lions Away Gabba 7:35pm AEDT
Thursday 25 April ANZAC Day Essendon Bombers Away MCG 3:20pm AEDT
Monday 10 June Queen's Birthday Melbourne Demons Home MCG 3:20pm AEDT
Bye: Round 13
Double-ups:

2019 season preview (expectations and concerns)

Weirdly, I think Collingwood enter the 2019 season even more of an enigma compared to last year. In my view there are still questions to be raised about how sustainable our makeshift forward line can be, and how durable our defence is. I’m not super familiar with Roughead’s experience as a key defender, but our defence seemed to take the appearance of being held together by duct tape once Lynden Dunn went down with an ACL, and really exposed our lack of KPD. If Dunn is still unavailable come Round 1, I hope our defence isn’t pushed to the limit too early in the season.
As for the forward line, our reliance on Cox to be a target and something of a maypole to draw defenders away was revealed in the first game against West Coast last season. Cox was a late out with a hamstring injury and was replaced by small forward Ben Crocker. Again, this showed our deficiency in the KPD area. Tall utility Sam McLarty could have made his debut (after being an emergency multiple times throughout the season) and played a similar role to Cox, and his delisting somewhat concerns me. He was probably just unfortunate due to requirements around keeping Murray on the list and picking up Roughead. How we seek to develop the talls we did pick up remains to be seen (Will Kelly, for instance, will take time and I don’t think he’ll debut this season).
God forbid we get an injury to Grundy - we have flimsy ruck depth, and our rookie ruck (Max Lynch) has yet to play a game. We must be pretty confident of not losing Grundy to free agency in 2020, because (as mentioned previously) Lynch is now at the point of his rookie listing (three straight years as a rookie) where if we wish to keep him beyond this season, he will need to be promoted to the senior list or delisted and re-rookied, and risk getting picked up by another team.
Our fixture worries me – we showed a lack of being able to play with the big boys for much of the home and away season in 2018, and increasing that burden in 2019 (while understandable due to the rules of fixturing) might hurt us rather than prove our dominance. Melbourne to me is a particularly scary prospect – they look fantastic over every area of the ground really due to the changes they made to their list in the off-season.
What is a pass mark for the Pies in 2019? Well there would be an expectation now of making finals, and Buckley (despite his turnaround as a coach in 2018) remains without a contract beyond 2019. If the Pies begin demonstrating that 2018 was a flash in the pan and start the season poorly (which could happen given the potential toughness of the opponents in the first month or so), things could go south very quickly. I also have to wonder how forgiving the board (and Eddie) would be of scraping into the finals and losing an elimination given how close we came to the flag in 2018.
My honest expectation is that Collingwood will play finals in 2019. But beyond that prediction, it’s hard to tell you where I think we will end up with any degree of confidence. As much as I want to buy into the rhetoric that this year is our year, I think teams like Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast and even Adelaide have strong arguments in favour of them winning the flag over us and all have healthier lists (either in terms of injury profile or types of players, or both). While we made the Grand Final against all odds, we remain crying out for gun key position players.
I’ve fiddled with the ladder predictor, and chose not to complicate matters with margins. I’ve got us sitting on 15 wins, with losses coming from both Eagles games, one of the Richmond games, Sydney, Hawthorn, GWS and Adelaide (this prediction would mean a very poor second half to the H&A season). I also had Melbourne and Essendon on 15 wins, which places all three teams in the range of 4-6. I think this is about right for us. I did not bother with predicting finals due to not tipping margins.
My personal view on what constitutes a pass mark for us is top 4 at the end of the H&A season. However, if we make top 8 instead of top 4, my view shifts to making a preliminary final be the pass mark. Last year, I stated finals (or at least pushing for them) was the pass mark after a stint of mediocrity. Now that we’ve shown we can play, it’s time to do it on a consistent basis.
Finally, Buckley’s beard was one of the best things about our 2018 season. We started winning when he began growing it for Christ’s sake! I thought originally it would become a permanent feature on Buckley’s chiselled jaw, but alas he has shaved it during the off-season. Let’s pray for a return.
Thanks for reading the 2019 season preview for the Collingwood Magpies.
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