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NYT article/The Weekly Episode on Epstein Hotlist
Just finished watching The Weekly (it’s kind of a Vice rip-off by the NYT) on Hulu where they went into detail about their story published this week about a « hacker » named Patrick Kessler who claimed to have tens of thousands of hours of Epstein’s private videos. Turns out, Patrick did not released the videos and there is a lot of questions with his credibility, nonetheless, he clearly exposed two lawyers (Bois and Pottinger) for attempting to profit by offering to reach large settlements in which they would take 40%. The article is here: Jeffrey Epstein, Blackmail, and a Lucrative Hotlist Even though it sounds like this guy Kessler is full of shit, I REALLY wish that he wasn’t and at some point these troves of photos and videos get released and a bunch of rich and powerful people get what they deserve for abusing these women. For those who need access to NYT- it is a long article, but here’s the full text: By Jessica Silver-Greenberg, Emily Steel, Jacob Bernstein and David Enrich Nov. 30, 2019 Soon after the sex criminal Jeffrey Epstein died in August, a mysterious man met with two prominent lawyers. Towering, barrel-chested and wild-bearded, he was a prodigious drinker and often wore flip-flops. He went by a pseudonym, Patrick Kessler — a necessity, he said, given the shadowy, dangerous world that he inhabited. He told the lawyers he had something incendiary: a vast archive of Mr. Epstein’s data, stored on encrypted servers overseas. He said he had years of the financier’s communications and financial records — as well as thousands of hours of footage from hidden cameras in the bedrooms of Mr. Epstein’s properties. The videos, Kessler said, captured some of the world’s richest, most powerful men in compromising sexual situations — even in the act of rape. Kessler said he wanted to expose these men. If he was telling the truth, his trove could answer one of the Epstein saga’s most baffling questions: How did a college dropout and high school math teacher amass a purported nine-figure fortune? One persistent but unproven theory was that he ran a sprawling blackmail operation. That would explain why moguls, scientists, political leaders and a royal stayed loyal to him, in some cases even after he first went to jail. Kessler’s tale was enough to hook the two lawyers, the famed litigator David Boies and his friend John Stanley Pottinger. If Kessler was authentic, his videos would arm them with immense leverage over some very important people. Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger discussed a plan. They could use the supposed footage in litigation or to try to reach deals with men who appeared in it, with money flowing into a charitable foundation. In encrypted chats with Kessler, Mr. Pottinger referred to a roster of potential targets as the “hot list.” He described hypothetical plans in which the lawyers would pocket up to 40 percent of the settlements and could extract money from wealthy men by flipping from representing victims to representing their alleged abusers. The possibilities were tantalizing — and extended beyond vindicating victims. Mr. Pottinger saw a chance to supercharge his law practice. For Mr. Boies, there was a shot at redemption, after years of criticism for his work on behalf of Theranos and Harvey Weinstein. In the end, there would be no damning videos, no funds pouring into a new foundation. Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger would go from toasting Kessler as their “whistle-blower” and “informant” to torching him as a “fraudster” and a “spy.” Kessler was a liar, and he wouldn’t expose any sexual abuse. But he would reveal something else: The extraordinary, at times deceitful measures elite lawyers deployed in an effort to get evidence that could be used to win lucrative settlements — and keep misconduct hidden, allowing perpetrators to abuse again. Mr. Boies has publicly decried such secret deals as “rich man’s justice,” a way that powerful men buy their way out of legal and reputational jeopardy. This is how it works. 7 men and a headless parrot The man who called himself Kessler first contacted a Florida lawyer, Bradley J. Edwards, who was in the news for representing women with claims against Mr. Epstein. It was late August, about two weeks after the financier killed himself in a jail cell while awaiting trial on federal sex-trafficking charges. Mr. Edwards, who did not respond to interview requests, had a law firm called Edwards Pottinger, and he soon referred Kessler to his New York partner. Silver-haired and 79, Mr. Pottinger had been a senior civil-rights official in the Nixon and Ford administrations, but he also dabbled in investment banking and wrote best-selling medical thrillers. He was perhaps best known for having dated Gloria Steinem and Kathie Lee Gifford. Mr. Pottinger recalled that Mr. Edwards warned him about Kessler, saying that he was “endearing,” “spooky” and “loves to drink like a fish.” After an initial discussion with Kessler in Washington, Mr. Pottinger briefed Mr. Boies — whose firm was also active in representing accusers in the Epstein case — about the sensational claims. He then invited Kessler to his Manhattan apartment. Kessler admired a wall-mounted frame containing a headless stuffed parrot; on TV, the Philadelphia Eagles were mounting a comeback against the Washington Redskins. Mr. Pottinger poured Kessler a glass of WhistlePig whiskey, and the informant began to talk. In his conversations with Mr. Pottinger and, later, Mr. Boies, Kessler said his videos featured numerous powerful men who were already linked to Mr. Epstein: Ehud Barak, the former Israeli prime minister; Alan Dershowitz, a constitutional lawyer; Prince Andrew; three billionaires; and a prominent chief executive. All seven men, or their representatives, told The New York Times they never engaged in sexual activity on Mr. Epstein’s properties. The Times has no reason to believe Kessler’s supposed video footage is real. In his apartment, Mr. Pottinger presented Kessler with a signed copy of “The Boss,” his 2005 novel. “One minute you’re bending the rules,” blares the cover of the paperback version. “The next minute you’re breaking the law.” On the title page, Mr. Pottinger wrote: “Here’s to the great work you are to do. Happy to be part of it.” Mr. Pottinger also gave Kessler a draft contract to bring him on as a client, allowing him to use a fake name. “For reasons revealed to you, I prefer to proceed with this engagement under the name Patrick Kessler,” the agreement said. Despite the enormities of the Epstein scandal, few of his accusers have gotten a sense of justice or resolution. Mr. Pottinger thought Kessler’s files could change everything. This strange man was theatrical and liked his alcohol, but if there was even a chance his claims were true, they were worth pursuing. “Our clients are said to be liars and prostitutes,” Mr. Pottinger later said in an interview with The Times, “and we now have someone who says, ‘I can give you secret photographic proof of abuse that will completely change the entire fabric of your practice and get justice for these girls.’ And you think that we wouldn’t try to get that?” A victim becomes a hacker Mr. Pottinger and Mr. Boies have known each other for years, a friendship forged on bike trips in France and Italy. In legal circles, Mr. Boies was royalty: He was the one who fought for presidential candidate Al Gore before the Supreme Court, took on Microsoft in a landmark antitrust case, and helped obtain the right for gays and lesbians to get married in California. But then Mr. Boies got involved with the blood-testing start-up Theranos. As the company was being revealed as a fraud, he tried to bully whistle-blowers into not speaking to a Wall Street Journal reporter, and he was criticized for possible conflicts of interest when he joined the company’s board in 2015. Two years later, Mr. Boies helped his longtime client Harvey Weinstein hire private investigators who intimidated sources and trailed reporters for The Times and The New Yorker — even though Mr. Boies’s firm had worked for The Times on other matters. (The Times fired his firm.) By 2019, Mr. Boies, 78, was representing a number of Mr. Epstein’s alleged victims. They got his services pro bono, and he got the chance to burnish his legacy. When Mr. Pottinger contacted him about Kessler, he was intrigued. On Sept. 9, Mr. Boies greeted Kessler at the offices of his law firm, Boies Schiller Flexner, in a gleaming new skyscraper at Hudson Yards on Manhattan’s West Side. Kessler unfurled a fantastic story, one he would embroider and alter in later weeks, that began with him growing up somewhere within a three-hour radius of Washington. Kessler said he had been molested as a boy by a Bible school teacher and sought solace on the internet, where he fell in with a group of victims turned hackers, who used their skills to combat pedophilia. Kessler claimed that a technology executive had introduced him to Mr. Epstein, who in 2012 hired Kessler to set up encrypted servers to preserve his extensive digital archives. With Mr. Epstein dead, Kessler boasted to the lawyers, he had unfettered access to the material. He said the volume of videos was overwhelming: more than a decade of round-the-clock footage from dozens of cameras. Kessler displayed some pixelated video stills on his phone. In one, a bearded man with his mouth open appears to be having sex with a naked woman. Kessler said the man was Mr. Barak. In another, a man with black-framed glasses is seen shirtless with a woman on his lap, her breasts exposed. Kessler said it was Mr. Dershowitz. He also said that some of the supposed videos appeared to have been edited and cataloged for the purpose of blackmail. “This was explosive information if true, for lots and lots of people,” Mr. Boies said in an interview. Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger had decades of legal experience and considered themselves experts at assessing witnesses’ credibility. While they couldn’t be sure, they thought Kessler was probably legit. A chance to sway the Israeli election Within hours of the Hudson Yards meeting, Mr. Pottinger sent Kessler a series of texts over the encrypted messaging app Signal. According to excerpts viewed by The Times, Mr. Pottinger and Kessler discussed a plan to disseminate some of the informant’s materials — starting with the supposed footage of Mr. Barak. The Israeli election was barely a week away, and Mr. Barak was challenging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The purported images of Mr. Barak might be able to sway the election — and fetch a high price. (“Total lie with no basis in reality,” Mr. Barak said when asked about the existence of such videos.) “Can you review your visual evidence to be sure some or all is indisputably him? If so, we can make it work,” Mr. Pottinger wrote. Kessler said he would do so. Mr. Pottinger sent a yellow smiley-face emoji with its tongue sticking out. “Can you share your contact that would be purchasing,” Kessler asked. “Sheldon Adelson,” Mr. Pottinger answered. Mr. Adelson, a billionaire casino magnate in Las Vegas, had founded one of Israel’s largest newspapers, and it was an enthusiastic booster of Mr. Netanyahu. Mr. Pottinger wrote that he and Mr. Boies hoped to fly to Nevada to meet with Mr. Adelson to discuss the images. “Do you believe that adelson has the pull to insure this will hurt his bid for election?” Kessler asked the next morning. Mr. Pottinger reassured him. “There is no question that Adelson has the capacity to air the truth about EB if he wants to,” he said, using Mr. Barak’s initials. He said he planned to discuss the matter with Mr. Boies that evening. Mr. Boies confirmed that they discussed sharing the photo with Mr. Adelson but said the plan was never executed. Boaz Bismuth, the editor in chief of the newspaper, Israel Hayom, said its journalists were approached by an Israeli source who pitched them supposed images of Mr. Barak, but that “we were not interested.” ‘These are wealthy wrongdoers’ The men whom Kessler claimed to have on tape were together worth many billions. Some of their public relations teams had spent months trying to tamp down media coverage of their connections to Mr. Epstein. Imagine how much they might pay to make incriminating videos vanish. You might think that lawyers representing abuse victims would want to publicly expose such information to bolster their clients’ claims. But that is not how the legal industry always works. Often, keeping things quiet is good business. One of the revelations of the #MeToo era has been that victims’ lawyers often brokered secret deals in which alleged abusers paid to keep their accusers quiet and the allegations out of the public sphere. Lawyers can pocket at least a third of such settlements, profiting off a system that masks misconduct and allows men to abuse again. Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger said in interviews that they were looking into creating a charity to help victims of sexual abuse. It would be bankrolled by private legal settlements with the men on the videos. Mr. Boies acknowledged that Kessler might get paid. “If we were able to use this to help our victims recover money, we would treat him generously,” he said in September. He said that his firm would not get a cut of any settlements. Such agreements would have made it less likely that videos involving the men became public. “Generally what settlements are about is getting peace,” Mr. Boies said. Mr. Pottinger told Kessler that the charity he was setting up would be called the Astria Foundation — a name he later said his girlfriend came up with, in a nod to Astraea, the Greek goddess of innocence and justice. “We need to get it funded by abusers,” Mr. Pottinger texted, noting in another message that “these are wealthy wrongdoers.” Mr. Pottinger asked Kessler to start compiling incriminating materials on a specific group of men. “I’m way ahead of you,” Kessler responded. He said he had asked his team of fellow hackers to search the files for the three billionaires, the C.E.O. and Prince Andrew. “Yes, that’s exactly how to do this,” Mr. Pottinger said. “Videos for sure, but email traffic, too.” “I call it our hot list,” he added. Image The Grand Sichuan restaurant in Manhattan. The Grand Sichuan restaurant in Manhattan.Credit...Stephanie Diani for The New York Times A quiet table at the back of Grand Sichuan In mid-September, Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger invited reporters from The Times to the Boies Schiller offices to meet Kessler. The threat of a major news organization writing about the videos — and confirming the existence of an extensive surveillance apparatus — could greatly enhance the lawyers’ leverage over the wealthy men. Before the session, Mr. Pottinger encouraged Kessler to focus on certain men, like Mr. Barak, while avoiding others. Referring to the reporters, he added, “Let them drink from a fountain instead of a water hose. They and the readers will follow that better.” The meeting took place on a cloudy Saturday morning. After agreeing to leave their phones and laptops outside, the reporters entered a 20th-floor conference room. Kessler was huge: more than 6 feet tall, pushing 300 pounds, balding, his temples speckled with gray. He told his story and presented images that he said were of Mr. Epstein, Mr. Barak and Mr. Dershowitz having sex with women. Barely an hour after the session ended, the Times reporters received an email from Kessler: “Are you free?” He said he wanted to meet — alone. “Tell no one else.” That afternoon, they met at Grand Sichuan, an iconic Chinese restaurant in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood. The lunch rush was over, and the trio sat at a quiet table in the back. A small group of women huddled nearby, speaking Mandarin and snipping the ends off string beans. Kessler complained that Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger were more interested in making money than in exposing wrongdoers. He pulled out his phone, warned the reporters not to touch it, and showed more of what he had. There was a color photo of a bare-chested, gray-haired man with a slight smile. Kessler said it was a billionaire. He also showed blurry, black-and-white images of a dark-haired man receiving oral sex. He said it was a prominent C.E.O. Soup dumplings and Gui Zhou chicken arrived, and Kessler kept talking. He said he had found financial ledgers on Mr. Epstein’s servers that showed he had vast amounts of Bitcoin and cash in the Middle East and Bangkok, and hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of gold, silver and diamonds. He presented no proof. But it is common for whistle-blowers to be erratic and slow to produce their evidence, and The Times thought it was worth investigating Kessler’s claims. The conversation continued in a conference room at a Washington hotel five days later, after a text exchange in which Kessler noted his enthusiasm for Japanese whiskey. Both parties brought bottles to the hotel, and Kessler spent nearly eight hours downing glass after glass. He veered from telling tales about the dark web to professing love for “Little House on the Prairie.” He asserted that he had evidence Mr. Epstein had derived his wealth through illicit means. At one point, he showed what he said were classified C.I.A. documents. Kessler said he had no idea who the women in the videos were or how the lawyers might go about identifying them to act on their behalf. From his perspective, he said, it seemed like Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger were plotting to use his footage to demand huge sums from billionaires. He said it looked like blackmail — and that he could prove it. ‘We keep it. We keep everything’ Was Kessler’s story plausible? Did America’s best-connected sexual predator accumulate incriminating videos of powerful men? Two women who spent time in Mr. Epstein’s homes said the answer was yes. In an unpublished memoir, Virginia Giuffre, who accused Mr. Epstein of making her a “sex slave,” wrote that she discovered a room in his New York mansion where monitors displayed real-time surveillance footage. And Maria Farmer, an artist who accused Mr. Epstein of sexually assaulting her when she worked for him in the 1990s, said that Mr. Epstein once walked her through the mansion, pointing out pin-sized cameras that he said were in every room. “I said, ‘Are you recording all this?’” Ms. Farmer said in an interview. “He said, ‘Yes. We keep it. We keep everything.’” During a 2005 search of Mr. Epstein’s Palm Beach, Fla., estate, the police found two cameras hidden in clocks — one in the garage and the other next to his desk, according to police reports. But no other cameras were found. Kessler claimed to have been an early investor in a North Carolina coffee company, whose sticker was affixed to his laptop. But its founder said no one matching Kessler’s description had ever been affiliated with the company. Kessler insisted that he invested in 2009, but the company wasn’t founded until 2011. The contents of Kessler’s supposed C.I.A. documents turned out to be easily findable using Google. At one point, Kessler said that one of his associates had been missing and was found dead; later, Kessler said the man was alive and in the southern United States. He said that his mother had died when he was young — and that he had recently given her a hug. A photo he sent from what he said was a Washington-area hospital featured a distinctive blanket, but when The Times called local hospitals, they didn’t recognize the pattern. After months of effort, The Times could not learn Kessler’s identity or confirm any element of his back story. “I am very often being purposefully inconsistent,” Kessler said, when pressed. A Weinstein cameo On the last Friday in September, Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger sat on a blue leather couch in the corner of a members-only dining room at the Harvard Club in Midtown Manhattan. Antlered animal heads and oil paintings hung from the dark wooden walls. The lawyers were there to make a deal with The Times. Tired of waiting for Kessler’s motherlode, Mr. Pottinger said they planned to send a team overseas to download the material from his servers. He said he had alerted the F.B.I. and a prosecutor in the United States attorney’s office in Manhattan. Mr. Boies told an editor for The Times that they would be willing to share everything, on one condition: They would have discretion over which men could be written about, and when. He explained that if compromising videos about particular men became public, that could torpedo litigation or attempts to negotiate settlements. The Times editor didn’t commit. Mr. Boies and Mr. Pottinger later said those plans had hinged on verifying the videos’ authenticity and on having clients with legitimate legal claims against the men. Otherwise, legal experts said, it might have crossed the line into extortion. The meeting was briefly interrupted when Bob Weinstein, the brother of Harvey Weinstein, bounded up to the table and plopped onto the couch next to Mr. Boies. The two men spent several minutes talking, laughing and slapping each other on the back. While Mr. Boies and Mr. Weinstein chatted, Mr. Pottinger furtively displayed the black-and-white shot of a man in glasses having sex. Both lawyers said it looked like Mr. Dershowitz. ‘You don’t keep your glasses on when you’re doing that’ One day in late September, Mr. Dershowitz’s secretary relayed a message: Someone named Patrick Kessler wanted to speak to him about Mr. Boies. “The problem is that they don’t want to move forward with any of these people legally,” Kessler said. “They’re just interested in trying to settle and take a cut.” “Who are these people that you have on videotape?” Mr. Dershowitz asked. “There’s a lot of people,” Kessler said, naming a few powerful men. He added, “There’s a long list of people that they want me to have that I don’t have.” “Who?” Mr. Dershowitz asked. “Did they ask about me?” “Of course they asked about you. You know that, sir.” “And you don’t have anything on me, right?” “I do not, no,” Kessler said. “Because I never, I never had sex with anybody,” Mr. Dershowitz said. Later in the call, he added, “I am completely clean. I was at Jeffrey’s house. I stayed there. But I didn’t have any sex with anybody.” What was the purpose of Kessler’s phone call? Why did he tell Mr. Dershowitz that he wasn’t on the supposed surveillance tapes, contradicting what he had said and showed to Mr. Boies, Mr. Pottinger and The Times? Did the call sound a little rehearsed? Mr. Dershowitz said that he didn’t know why Kessler contacted him, and that the phone call was the only time the two men ever spoke. When The Times showed him one of Kessler’s photos, in which a bespectacled man resembling Mr. Dershowitz appears to be having sex, Mr. Dershowitz laughed and said the man wasn’t him. His wife, Carolyn Cohen, peeked at the photo, too. “You don’t keep your glasses on when you’re doing that,” she said. Data set (supposedly) to self-destruct In early October, Kessler said he was ready to produce the Epstein files. He told The Times that he had created duplicate versions of Mr. Epstein’s servers. He laid out detailed logistical plans for them to be shipped by boat to the United States and for one of his associates — a very short Icelandic man named Steven — to deliver them to The Times headquarters at 11 a.m. on Oct. 3. Kessler warned that he was erecting a maze of security systems. First, a Times employee would need to use a special thumb drive to access a proprietary communications system. Then Kessler’s colleague would transmit a code to decrypt the files. If his instructions weren’t followed precisely, Kessler said, the information would self-destruct. Specialists at The Times set up a number of “air-gapped” laptops — disconnected from the internet — in a windowless, padlocked meeting room. Reporters cleared their schedules to sift through thousands of hours of surveillance footage. On the morning of the scheduled delivery, Kessler sent a series of frantic texts. Disaster had struck. A fire was burning. The duplicate servers were destroyed. One of his team members was missing. He was fleeing to Kyiv. Two hours later, Kessler was in touch with Mr. Pottinger and didn’t mention any emergency. Kessler said he hoped that the footage would help pry $1 billion in settlements out of their targets, and asked him to detail how the lawyers could extract the money. “Could you put together a hypothetical situation,” Kessler wrote, not something “set in stone but close to what your thinking.” In one, which he called a “standard model” for legal settlements, Mr. Pottinger said the money would be split among his clients, the Astria Foundation, Kessler and the lawyers, who would get up to 40 percent. In the second hypothetical, Mr. Pottinger wrote, the lawyers would approach the videotaped men. The men would then hire the lawyers, ensuring that they would not get sued, and “make a contribution to a nonprofit as part of the retainer.” “No client is actually involved in this structure,” Mr. Pottinger said, noting that the arrangement would have to be “consistent with and subject to rules of ethics.” “Thank you very much,” Kessler responded. Mr. Pottinger later said that the scenario would have involved him representing a victim, settling a case and then representing the victim’s alleged abuser. He said it was within legal boundaries. (He also said he had meant to type “No client lawsuit is actually involved.”) Such legal arrangements are not unheard-of. Lawyers representing a former Fox News producer who had accused Bill O’Reilly of sexual harassment reached a settlement in which her lawyers agreed to work for Mr. O’Reilly after the dispute. But legal experts generally consider such setups to be unethical because they can create conflicts between the interests of the lawyers and their original clients. ‘I just pulled it out of my behind’ The lawyers held out hope of getting Kessler’s materials. But weeks passed, and nothing arrived. At one point, Mr. Pottinger volunteered to meet Kessler anywhere — including Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia. “I still believe he is what he purported to be,” Mr. Boies wrote in an email on Nov. 7. “I have to evaluate people for my day job, and he seemed too genuine to be a fake, and I very much want him to be real.” He added, “I am not unconscious of the danger of wanting to believe something too much.” Ten days later, Mr. Boies arrived at The Times for an on-camera interview. It was a bright, chilly Sunday, and Mr. Boies had just flown in from Ecuador, where he said he was doing work for the finance ministry. Reporters wanted to ask him plainly if his and Mr. Pottinger’s conduct with Kessler crossed ethical lines. Would they have brokered secret settlements that buried evidence of wrongdoing? Did the notion of extracting huge sums from men in exchange for keeping sex tapes hidden meet the definition of extortion? Mr. Boies said the answer to both questions was no. He said he and Mr. Pottinger operated well within the law. They only intended to pursue legal action on behalf of their clients — in other words, that they were a long way from extortion. In any case, he said, he and Mr. Pottinger had never authenticated any of the imagery or identified any of the supposed victims, much less contacted any of the men on the “hot list.” Then The Times showed Mr. Boies some of the text exchanges between Mr. Pottinger and Kessler. Mr. Boies showed a flash of anger and said it was the first time he was seeing them. By the end of the nearly four-hour interview, Mr. Boies had concluded that Kessler was probably a con man: “I think that he was a fraudster who was just trying to set things up.” And he argued that Kessler had baited Mr. Pottinger into writing things that looked more nefarious than they really were. He acknowledged that Mr. Pottinger had used “loose language” in some of his messages that risked creating the impression that the lawyers were plotting to monetize evidence of abuse. Several days later, Mr. Boies returned for another interview and was more critical of Mr. Pottinger, especially the hypothetical plans that he had described to Kessler. “Having looked at all that stuff in context, I would not have said that,” he said. How did Mr. Boies feel about Mr. Pottinger invoking his name in messages to Kessler? “I don’t like it,” he said. But Mr. Boies stopped short of blaming Mr. Pottinger for the whole mess. “I’m being cautious not to throw him under the bus more than I believe is accurate,” he said. His longtime P.R. adviser, Dawn Schneider, who had been pushing for a more forceful denunciation, dropped her pen, threw up her arms and buried her head in her hands. In a separate interview, The Times asked Mr. Pottinger about his correspondence with Kessler. The lawyer said that his messages shouldn’t be taken at face value because, in reality, he had been deceiving Kessler all along — “misleading him deliberately in order to get the servers.” The draft retention agreement that Mr. Pottinger had given to Kessler in September was unsigned and never meant to be honored, Mr. Pottinger said. And he never intended to sell photos of Mr. Barak to Mr. Adelson. “I just pulled it out of my behind,” he said, describing it as an act to impress Kessler. As for the two hypotheticals about how to get money out of the men on the list, Mr. Pottinger said, he never planned to do what he carefully articulated. “I didn’t owe Patrick honesty about this,” he said. Mr. Pottinger said that he had only one regret — that “we did not get the information that this liar said he had.” He added, “I’m building legal cases here. I’m trying not to engage too much in shenanigans. I wish I didn’t, but this guy was very unusual.”
North America: September 15 International: September 17 NHL 16 will be released for the Xbox One and PlayStation 4. The 360 and PS3 will be getting a simple update in the form of "NHL Legacy". Information in this post is for the NHL 16 release only.
Cover Art
Instead of a cover vote this year, EA debuted the new cover at the NHL Awards in June. For the 'Play Together, Win Together' aspect, the cover featured 2015 Cup winners Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. Following reports that Kane was a person of interest in a rape/assault investigation, EA Sports released a statement on August 12:
In light of the ongoing investigation involving Patrick Kane, he will no longer be a spokesperson for the launch of EA SPORTS NHL 16. He will not appear on the EA SPORTS NHL 16 cover nor participate in other EA SPORTS NHL 16 promotional activities.
The new cover features Jonathan Toews skating with the Cup. He's the first player to be featured solo on two separate NHL covers.
Demo
There is no demo planned due to the EASHL beta.
Early Release
EA Access (Xbox One exclusive): NHL 16 Early Access is available now via EA Access. The download is 17 GB and gives you 10 hours of the full game. (In addition to early access, membership includes a 10% discount on all DLC AND digital downloads, as well as downloads of full games in The Vault. EA Access is $4.99/mo or $29.99/yr (US pricing, other regions vary))
Pre-Order Info
All regular pre-orders come with "$15 worth of HUT content": 1 gold pack per week for 15 weeks.
Digital downloads include 10 gold packs immediately on entering HUT for the first time.
GameStop/EB pre-orders include "$25 worth of HUT content": 1 gold pack per week for 25 weeks.
Deluxe Edition pre-orders include "$50 worth of HUT content": 2 gold packs per week for 20 weeks.
Some of these may be stackable but you may want to check with the vendor to confirm. Links below are US links, other regions available through EA's pre-order page.
The EASHL mode in NHL 16 has been revamped to use stock classes with no customized attributes or height/weight. You customize the look of your skater then select a build at game time. Builds have their own pros & cons and an average height/weight for that type of player. Attributes are based on an average second liner, though speed and acceleration are the same across the board. Club customization is limited to existing logos and jerseys - no custom color schemes or jerseys at this time. You can select your home ice and team play-by-play name. On 9/9, EA announced a badge/prestige system for EASHL where players advance from Level 1 through Level 50 based on points, milestones, and other tasks that award XP. Once players hit level 50, they advance one prestige level and go back to level 1. Badges show up on leaderboards and in the dressing rooms & side select screens.
HUT Returning User Bonus
On August 28, EA confirmed that the returning user bonus is in the form of gold packs. This year, returning users will receive up to 10 mega packs based on coin balance, number of games played, and collection size for your NHL 15 team. Packs contain 25 untradeable gold items, 4-8 rare, with a minimum 7 players. By comparison, NHL 15 was up to 30 packs, 12 cards (including some silver cards), 4 rare with 3-4 players per pack.
Additional Articles & Videos
NHL 16 Update - the first content update will be available when early access begins 9/10.
NHL 16 Edit Player Update - full player editing is back in, available from the main menu as well as in the usual game modes (Be a GM, Season, Playoffs)
Mascots - all of the NHL mascots have been added for additional realism.
The Action Tracker system for replays and stats has returned
Players will drag a skate or perform other animations to avoid offsides\
Many teams will have licensed authentic goal horns & songs
No mobile app for HUT
HUT will no longer have duration cards for skill boosts
You will be able to swap goalies in HUT games
AHL team management and games return to Be a GM
Be a GM also gains back sim intervention for individual games
EASHL returns to a monthly playoff system
There will be free post-release content updates similar to last year, but info remains TBD.
Licensed goal horns songs are in for some teams:
Anaheim
Arizona
Boston
Columbus
Calgary
Chicago
Detroit
Los Angeles
Minnesota
Montreal
New Jersey
NY Islanders
NY Rangers
Ottawa
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Toronto
Winnipeg
Arena Atmosphere
NHL 16 improves on the arenas from last year with unique elements and bug fixes. The team is continually updating an Arena Atmosphere page with screenshots of some of the changes and additions. PNC is confirmed in, as is the Islanders' home ice (Barclays Center) in Brooklyn. United Center is not (yet) in. United Center confirmed in as of 9/9. Due to certain rules/regulations relative to gambling-related materials in E-rated games, Arizona's Gila River Arena will not be in the game (taken from the Ask EA page above):
Gila River Arena will not be in NHL 16. Due to certain laws, rules and/or regulations in various jurisdictions, EA restricts the appearance of brands that pertain to gambling across all of its E or E-equivalent games and titles. Accordingly, due to the association with Gila River Casino, the Arizona Coyotes will be playing in a home arena called Arizona Arena not Gila River Arena in NHL 16.
J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 1-13-17
Full version: [DELETED PRIOR TO MARKET CLOSE] J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 1.13.17 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Only PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT
Morning Levels
• US futures are up 3-4 points • Asia: Japan Nikkei +0.80%, Japan TOPIX +0.62%, China -0.21%, Hong Kong +0.47%, KOSPI - 0.50%, Taiwan -0.33%, Australia -0.79% • EuroStoxx 50 +0.78%, FTSE +0.37%, DAX +0.60%, CAC +0.85%, Italy +1.18%, Spain +0.76% • USD (DXY) down 0.14%, EUR up 0.32%, GBP up 0.49%, JPY up 0.03%, CNY Onshore down 0.07%, CNH Offshore up 0.14%, AUD up 0.07% • VIX down 0.87% to 11.44 • Gold up 0.14% to $1,197.11 • Silver down 0.09% to $16.81 • Copper down 0.75% to $265.15 • WTI Crude down 1.04% to $52.46 • Brent Crude down 1.21% to $55.33 • Natural Gas down 0.21% to $3.38 • Corn down 0.28% to $3.57/bu • Wheat unch at $426.25 • Treasuries 2yr yields are down ~0.9bps at 1.165%, 10yr yields are down ~1.6bps at 2.347% and 30yr yields are down ~1.1bps at 2.949% • Japan 10yr yields 0.039%, up ~0.9bps on the day • France 10yr yields 0.776%, up ~0.5bps on the day • Italy 10yr yields 1.898%, up ~0.8bps on the day • Spain 10yr yields 1.405%, up ~0.7bps on the day • Germany 10yr yields 0.309%, up ~0.2bps on the day
Trading Update
• Market update – once again, there isn’t much to talk about overnight. China’s trade numbers were the big macro headline but those figures are hardly changing the broader macro narrative (exports fell slightly short while imports were inline). Otherwise the wires were largely void of major headlines. Asia was mixed, Eurozone stocks are rallying nicely (although are on track to end the week lower), and US futures are up a few points. • Calendar - for Friday investors will be watching US Dec PPI/retail sales (8:30amET), US Michigan confidence for Jan (10amET), one Fed speaker (Harker), and earnings (BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, JPM, PNC, and WFC pre-open). • Eurozone stocks – the main Eurozone indices are seeing solid gains (up ~60-70bp). Most major sub-groups are trading higher but tech, fin services, banks, media, and healthcare are outperforming. Fiat Chrysler is rebounding as investors view its emissions scandal as less severe than the one that hit VW although Renault is weak as Paris prosecutors open a probe into its emissions. Technicolor is the weakest stock in the SXXP after cutting its outlook. • FX – the DXY is in the red again so far Fri morning (the DXY is tracking for a ~1% dip this week). The USD is weak vs. the GBP and EUR and is flattish against the JPY. Investors are looking forward to the Brexit speech on Tues from PM May. • Asia – the major Asian bourses were mixed: Japan (TPX +0.62%, NKY +0.8%), HK (Hang Seng +0.47%, HSCEI +0.66%), mainland China (SHCOMP -0.21%, Shenzhen -1.55%), Korea (KOSPI - 0.5%), Australia (ASX 200 -0.79%), and India (flattish for the major indices). China’s trade numbers were the big headline out of Asia (exports were a touch light while imports were inline). The Bank of Korea decision was largely consistent w/expectations. In India, INFY and TCS are both trading lower despite OK earnings from both. Taiwan didn’t trade very badly despite the underwhelming TSMC guidance. • Japan – it was an extremely quiet and relatively uneventful trading session. Focus has begun to turn to earnings with Retail +2.3% bouncing from recent weakness following Fast Retailing +1.1% and Seven&i +8.6% earnings beat. Downside was led by Nintendo -5.8%, trading close to 10% of total TPX turnover, as its 'Switch' presentation failed to impress - especially with their $299.99 pricing (street was modeling more around $250~$275). Otherwise, dispersion across sectors was low and larger moves were driven more by microheadlines: Takata traded at limit high (+16.47%) after headlines saying the co and the US Justice Department may announce a settlement as soon as Fri over air bags, SMM -4.7% got hit after Nickel's weakness overnight, while Screen -4.0% traded lower on TSMC's weakerthan- expected guidance for 1H '17. • Hong Kong - sector wise Coal outperformed +3.75% together with Chinese OEMs +2.8% while Chinese Railways were down 0.4%. In the Chinese property sector, Vanke was well bid +5.7% after China Resources Holdings has agreed to sell 15.3% of total shs out to Shenzhen Metro Group at 37.2b yuan. In the Auto sector, Great Wall Motor spiked 2.7% after announcing a positive profit alert; the rest of the sector traded higher. Despite a pullback of the commodity complex, Steel +3% and Coal pushed higher driven mainly by further NDRCdriven expectations of SOE reform/consolidation, China Shenhua +4.1% Angang Steel +2.5%. The bounce in oil prices triggered a rally in Energy names, Sinopec putting on a +3.57%, Petrochina +2.6%. • South Korea – the KOSPI ended off 0.5%. Samsung Electronics slumped ~3.45% following tech weakness in the US on Thurs (note that Samsung did a lot worse than TSMC). Hynix finished down ~0.59% (JPMorgan has a Hynix note this morning and recommends booking profits instead of chasing the rally). • Taiwan – the TAIEX ended off 0.33%. TSMC fell 1.63% after its downbeat guidance (although the local TSM did a lot better than the US ADR on Thurs which fell ~3%). The rest of tech didn’t trade too badly despite TSM (MediaTek -0.92%, Hon Hai -0.12%, etc). On the upside, outperformers included Advantech +1.5%, Quanta +0.79%, Pegatron +0.96%, Innolux +1.17%, and AUO +1.16%. • US equity macro update - the multi-month rally has been underpinned by two main developments: 1) improved nominal growth (which predated the election by a few months and is largely politically agnostic for the near-term) and 2) GOD EMPEROR Trump enthusiasm. One of these factors remains in place (growth) while the other is increasingly dubious (the political optimism – see below). However, the market isn’t anticipating instant action out of Washington and in fact the ’17 numbers (~$127-128) don’t really require any political/policy changes (the problem is more w/the 2018 numbers where the tentative ~$145 EPS forecast needs some assistance from Washington). Therefore investors may give the benefit of the doubt to GOD EMPEROR Trump and Congressional Republicans until at least the end of the summer. This faith though is finite and will likely wind up being disappointed as investors appreciate the insurmountable complexity and tradeoffs of tax reform and realize that no government, Republican or Democrat, can provide much added impetus to a full-employment economy facing the twin structural headwinds of tepid labor supply and productivity growth.
Top Headlines for Friday
• China Dec trade numbers; slight export miss and inline imports – exports came in -6.1% (vs. the St -4% and JPM -3.3%) while imports rose 3.1% (vs. the St +3% and JPM +3.4%). Takeaways from JPMorgan’s Grace Ng - While December export growth, in over-year-ago US$ terms, came in below expectations, in sequential terms, exports still rose 1.9%m/m sa, adding to the notable gain at 3.3% m/m sa in November. Besides, imports came in line with expectations, up 2.1% m/m sa in December, following the surge at 7.8% m/m sa in November. Commodity imports came in rather mixed in December, although that followed the notable broad-based gain in November. Looking ahead, the expected modest improvement in global growth going into 2017, along with CNY’s trade-weighted adjustment over the past year, would likely be moderately supportive for China’s external trade, although uncertainty regarding potential US-China trade tensions poses notable risks. http://bit.ly/2imQ8xz • China vs. US – a Chinese newspaper, the Global Times, said blocking Chinese access to its islands in the South China Sea, an idea endorsed by Rex Tillerson during his confirmation hearing, would require the US to “wage war”; "Tillerson had better bone up on nuclear power strategies if he wants to force a big nuclear power to withdraw from its own territories” – Reuters http://reut.rs/2jDzLgS • China currency bears remain despite recent CNY strengthening – Reuters notes that the PBOC may have tempered near-term cautiousness and given pause to short-term traders but sentiment around the yuan is still very gloomy. http://reut.rs/2iri3zz • OPEC unlikely to deliver fully on cut pledge – Reuters notes that some cheating is inevitable and OPEC apparently would be happy if compliance stays within a 50-80% band; OPEC sources say compliance “is never 100%” and the cartel would be content so long as the overall rate is north of 50% – Reuters http://reut.rs/2j7gPs0 • Yellen spoke Thurs night although her remarks weren’t very incremental; Yellen said the US economy doesn’t face any serious short-term obstacles. “Unemployment has now reached a low level, the labor market is generally strong and wage growth is beginning to pick up,” Yellen said Thursday in a meeting with educators. “Inflation has moved up from a very low level, and it’s a little bit under our 2 percent objective, but it’s pretty close.” Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/2in61nE • Fed unity – the WSJ notes how Fed officials, including hawks and doves, are expressing remarkable unanimity in their policy outlooks. A slew of Fed officials spoke over the last few days and most think the FOMC will hike rates 2-4 times this year (most appear comfortable w/the current three hike outlook expressed by the median 2017 dot). WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2jeH3Lk • Monetary vs. fiscal policy - the Fed continues to clearly warn Congress/GOD EMPEROR Trump that any material fiscal stimulus would likely result in a faster withdrawal of accommodation (“Evans Thurs morning became the latest in a series of Fed policymakers to quietly warn that this may not be the best moment to launch a major fiscal plan or throw too much stimulus into the economy” http://reut.rs/2j4IZUl). • US fiscal outlook weakens – the US had a deficit of $580B/3.1% of GDP in C16, up from 2.6% in C15. The 2016 figure follows 6 years of shrinking deficits and the numbers are set to worsen in the years ahead. WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2jcMomt • Tax reform/border taxes - Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) on Thursday defended the House GOP border tax proposal and called it "a little offensive" that some U.S. companies are criticizing it. "This is not controversial, and quite frankly, it's a little offensive that some of the major American companies that are importers who do business worldwide are even raising concerns of this plan, because I don't see them going to Germany or Mexico or China to raise these concerns” – The Hill http://bit.ly/2jLoQ9a • Border taxes - Larry Kudlow speaking on CNBC (at ~1:15pmET Thurs afternoon) is vehemently against the idea of border taxes and worries that this issue could doom the entire tax reform effort given how controversial it is. Kudlow at one point was being considered for an economic job in the GOD EMPEROR Trump team (it isn’t clear where that consideration stands now). GOD EMPEROR Trump hasn’t explicitly addressed the Ryan border tax blueprint. • Paul Ryan conducted a town hall on CNN Thurs night although there weren’t many materially incremental headlines out of the event. Ryan reiterated a desire to pass ACA replace legislation at the same as the repeal bills are approved. Ryan said Republicans are moving "as quickly as they can" to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, but said he doesn't yet have a date, and it will take "a little bit of time" to do so (CNN http://cnn.it/2in0HR5). • Healthcare - the NYT details how GOD EMPEROR Trump’s healthcare promises will be difficult to achieve (http://nyti.ms/2jLkQFK) while the WSJ discusses the bipartisan healthcare problem: “the sick are expensive and someone has to pay” (http://on.wsj.com/2j7eIUU). The head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus predicted Thursday that the GOP's ObamaCare replacement plan is “likely to fail” in the Senate (The Hill http://bit.ly/2jqElzM). • GOD EMPEROR Trump’s team calls on Republicans to make childcare more affordable – GOD EMPEROR Trump aids are instructing Congressional Republicans to incorporate measures into upcoming tax reform legislation to make childcare more affordable. Proposals would allow parents to deduct certain child care costs. Politico http://politi.co/2irsanV • Don’t Let the Dollar Inhibit Growth. A soaring currency could slow exports, fueling populist anger. Time for another Plaza Accord? WSJ editorial. http://on.wsj.com/2iOJGjY • Int’l company-specific news update from Fri morning. The Infosys (out Thurs night US/preopen India) and Tata Consultancy (out after the India close Thurs) earnings were decent but both stocks are getting hit in India trading Fri morning. In Europe Fiat Chrysler is rebounding as investors view its emissions scandal as less severe than the one that hit VW although Renault is weak as Paris prosecutors open a probe into its emissions. Technicolor is the weakest stock in the SXXP after cutting its outlook. • US company-specific news update from Thurs night. It was another pretty uneventful evening. DOV provided F17 guidance – the top line was fine but the EPS guide was a bit below the St. Pandora (P) published an upside preannouncement for CQ4 (the co also announced restructuring actions). Finally, RYI said that it anticipates seasonally lower revenue for the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2016 due to fewer shipping days.
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Jan 16
• Bottom Line – the big focus during the week of 1/16 will be on earnings, US eco data (US CPI for Dec Wed morning 1/18), the ECB decision (Thurs 1/19 – this should be a non-event), China eco data (Dec IP/retail sales and Q4 GDP all out Thurs night/Fri morning), and two Yellen speeches (she will take part in a discussion Wed 1/18 at 3pmET and speaks at Stanford Thurs 1/19 at 8pmET). Also GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration is Friday. Keep in mind Mon 1/16 is a holiday in the US (MLK Day). • Mon 1/16 – US markets are closed for MLK Day. BHP is scheduled to give its Q4 production update Mon night. • Tues 1/17 – this day should be pretty quiet w/no major eco numbers and only a few earnings (CMA, MS, and UNH pre-open and ADTN and CSX after the close). In addition, two Fed officials will be speaking (Dudley, Williams), Chinese President Xi gives a keynote at the Davos conf., and UK PM May is expected to give a “major” speech on Brexit. • Wed 1/18 – the big focus on Wed will be the US CPI for Dec at 8:30amET w/investors watching inflation numbers closely. Also Yellen will participate in a discussion (3pmET) and a bunch of earnings are due (AMTD, ASML, Burberry, C, FAST, GS, NTRS, SCHW, and USB pre-open and NFLX, PLXS, PTC, and SLM after the close). • Thurs 1/19 – the ECB decision (7:45amET statement, 8:30amET press conf.) should be a non-event. The other events include Yellen’s speech at Stanford (8pmET) and earnings (BBT, BK, CHKP, KEY, PPG, UNP, and WBS pre-open and AXP, IBM, and SWKS after the close). • Fri 1/20 – this day will be dominated by China’s eco data (Dec IP/retail sales and Q4 GDP out Thurs night/Fri morning), earnings (CFG, COL, GE, KSU, RF, SLB, STI, and SYF pre-open), and two Fed speakers (Harker and Williams). GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration (he becomes president at 12pmET) shouldn’t be all that important (although many are fearful of investors booking profits on the “GOD EMPEROR Trump Trade” following this event).
Catalysts for 2017 – big events to watch for 2017 (preliminary list – additional events likely to be
added) • US bank earnings season kicks off Fri 1/13 (BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, JPM, PNC, and WFC all report Fri morning). • Earnings - week of Mon 1/16 is the first big one of the CQ4 earnings season. • World Economic Forum 1/17-20 in Davos. • ECB – first ECB decision of the year will occur on Jan 19. • China eco data - Dec IP/retail sales/FAI and Q4 GDP – Fri morning 1/20. • GOD EMPEROR Trump inauguration Fri 1/20. • Oil – OPEC and non-OPEC committee Jan 21-22 Vienna meeting (this will be the first meeting to evaluate whether all the parties are adhering to the recent production agreement). • Italy – Italian Constitutional Court to hold hearing on legitimacy of Italian electoral law on Jan 24. • Japan – there is speculation Abe could call elections in the Jan timeframe. • US banks – the Fed will prob. publish the ’17 CCAstress test criteria around the end of Jan (the criteria was released Jan 28, 2016 for the last testing cycle). • US GDP – the Q4 GDP number will be published Fri 1/27. • China New Year holiday. Mainland markets closed Fri 1/27-Thurs 2/2. • Fed – first Fed decision of the year will occur on Feb 1. • Netherlands will have national elections Mar 15. • Fed meeting – first press conf./dot plot decision of the year is Mar 15. • G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany. • China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) usually take place in mid-Mar; the gov’t will formally publish its 2017 economic objectives at this event. • US debt ceiling - the debt limit has been suspended since late ’15 but is due to be reinstated on Mar 16, 2017. • EU Leaders Summit Mar 25 – this could be the forum at which the UK formally triggers Article 50. • WFC’s “living will” – WFC will resubmit its living will in the Mar timeframe. Normally this wouldn’t be a major event but if WFC’s living will is deemed inadequate again the Fed could raise the company’s capital requirements. • France first-round presidential election Apr 23 (run-off is May 7). • US Treasury publishes semi-annual currency report around Apr timeframe (investors will watch China’s designation closely and if it gets labeled a currency manipulator). • US gov’t funding – current spending legislation will keep the gov’t funding until Apr 28 • NATO – Montenegro is expected to become a NATO member in the spring of 2017. • G7 Leaders Summit May 26-27 in Italy. • Italy – new elections are likely in the June timeframe. • Russia – European sanctions against Russia are due to expire in June. Given the likely outcome of the French election, they will prob. not be extended (http://on.wsj.com/2iHEYUB). • China/MSCI - MSCI will announce the result of the China A shares inclusion proposal as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017. • G20 Leaders Summit Jul 7-8 2017 in Germany. • German elections – the next German elections will be held between Aug and Oct 2017. • Chinese politics – China’s 19th National Congress will take place in the fall of 2017 and will set the country’s political path for the next five years.
Full catalyst list
• Fri Jan 13 – China imports/exports for Dec (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Jan 13 – US PPI for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 13 – US retail sales for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 13 – Michigan Confidence numbers for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Jan 13 – Fed speakers: Harker • Fri Jan 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, INFY, JPM, PNC, WFC • Fri Jan 13 - JPMorgan Healthcare Conf. Jan 9-13. San Francisco. • Mon Jan 16 – earnings out Mon night: Rio Tinto • Mon Jan 16 – ECB’s Praet speaks • Mon Jan 16 – BOE’s Carney speaks • Mon Jan 16 – US markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day • Tues Jan 17 – Fed speakers: Dudley, Williams • Tues Jan 17 – European trading updates: Alstom, Casino, Provident Financial, Renault • Tues Jan 17 – WTR earnings guidance conf. call. • Tues Jan 17 – earnings before the open: CMA, EDU, INFO, MS, SNV, UNH • Tues Jan 17 – earnings after the close: ADTN, CSX • Wed Jan 18 – US CPI for Dec. 8:30amET. • Wed Jan 18 – US IP for Dec. 9:15amET. • Wed Jan 18 – Bank of Canada rate decision • Wed Jan 18 – Fed speakers: Kashkari, Yellen • Wed Jan 18 – analyst meetings: ASNA • Wed Jan 18 – European trading updates: Burberry, Experian • Wed Jan 18 – earnings before the open: AMTD, ASML, C, FAST, GS, NTRS, SCHW, USB • Wed Jan 18 – earnings after the close: CLC, NFLX, PLXS, PTC, SLM • Thurs Jan 19 – ECB decision. 7:45amET statement, 8:30amET press conf. • Thurs Jan 19 – US housing starts and building permits for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 19 – Fed speakers: Yellen • Thurs Jan 19 – analyst meetings: PAY • Thurs Jan 19 – European trading updates: Ahold, British Land, Carrefour, Remy Cointreau • Thurs Jan 19 – earnings before the open: BBT, BK, CBSH, CHKP, JBHT, KCG, KEY, MTG, PPG, UNP, WBS • Thurs Jan 19 – earnings after the close: ASB, AXP, IBM, PBCT, SWKS • Fri Jan 20 – China Dec IP/retail sales/FAI and Q4 GDP (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Jan 20 – ECB survey of professional forecasters. 4amET. • Fri Jan 20 – GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration • Fri Jan 20 – Fed speakers: Harker, Williams • Fri Jan 20 – earnings before the open: CFG, COL, GE, KSU, RF, SLB, STI, SYF • Mon Jan 23 – earnings before the open: BOH, HAL, MCD • Mon Jan 23 – earnings after the close: ATI, BRO, SIMO, ZION • Tues Jan 24 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Tues Jan 24 – US existing home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Tues Jan 24 – European trading updates: BHP, Dixons Carphone • Tues Jan 24 – earnings before the open: AKS, BABA, DD, DHI, FITB, GLW, JNJ, JNS, KMB, LMT, MMM, Philips, PLD, PII, SAP, TRV, VZ • Tues Jan 24 – earnings after the close: AA, CA, CNI, COF, CREE, DFS, ISRG, LG Display, NAVI, Samsung Electronics, STLD, STX, SYK, TSS, TXN • Wed Jan 25 – BP 2017 energy outlook • Wed Jan 25 – analyst meetings: KMI • Wed Jan 25 – European trading updates: Antofagasta, Fresnillo, Tod’s, WH Smith • Wed Jan 25 – earnings before the open: ABT, APH, BA, CVLT, EAT, FCX, GWW, HBAN, ITW, LOGI, PG, PGR, Novartis, NYCB, PGR, Santander, SC, STT, TXT, UTX, VLY • Wed Jan 25 – earnings after the close: BXS, CCI, CLB, DRE, EBAY, FFIV, KNX, LRCX, MCK, NOW, QCOM, T, TCBI, UNPQ, VAR, VRTX, WDC, XLNX • Thurs Jan 26 – China Dec industrial profits (Wed night/Thurs morning) • Thurs Jan 26 – US wholesale inventories for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US advanced goods trade balance for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US flash services PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US new home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – European trading updates: Anglo American, Diageo, JCDecaux, LVMH, Sage Group • Thurs Jan 26 – earnings before the open: ADS, BHI, BIIB, BMS, BMY, BX, CAT, CELG, CMCSA, DGX, DOW, F, LEA, LUV, MJN, OSK, PHM, PX, RCI, RTN, SHW, Sky, STM, SWK, TROW, Unilever • Thurs Jan 26 – earnings after the close: AJG, BCR, FLEX, GOOG, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, MSFT, MXIM, PFPT, SBUX, VMW • Fri Jan 27 – China New Year holiday. Mainland markets closed Fri 1/27-Thurs 2/2. • Fri Jan 27 – US Q4 GDP. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 27 – US durable goods for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 27 – US Michigan Confidence for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Jan 27 – earnings before the open: APD, BT, CL, CVX, HON, UBS • Mon Jan 30 – US personal income/spending for Dec. 8:30amET. • Mon Jan 30 – US PCE for Dec. 8:30amET. • Mon Jan 30 – US pending home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Mon Jan 30 – earnings before the open: BAH, EPD • Mon Jan 30 – earnings after the close: CR, GGG, IDTI, IEX, LEG, PFG, RGA • Tues Jan 31 – BOJ policy decision (Mon night/Tues morning) • Tues Jan 31 – US employment cost index (ECI) for Q4. 8:30amET. • Tues Jan 31 – US CoreLogic home prices for Nov. 9amET. • Tues Jan 31 – Chicago PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Tues Jan 31 – US consumer confidence for Jan. 10amET. • Tues Jan 31 – earnings before the open: ABC, ALLY, COH, HOG, LLY, MA, NDAQ, NUE, PFE, SMG, SPG, TMO, UA, UPS, VLO, WDR, XOM, XRX, ZBH • Tues Jan 31 – earnings after the close: AAPL, APC, BDN, CB, CHRW, EQR, MANH, PLT, X • Wed Feb 1 – China NBS manufacturing/non-manufacturing PMIs (Tues night/Wed morning) • Wed Feb 1 – US ADP employment report for Jan. 8:15amET. • Wed Feb 1 – Markit manufacturing PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US manufacturing ISM for Jan. 10amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US construction spending for Dec. 10amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US auto sales for Jan. • Wed Feb 1 – FOMC decision. 2pmET. • Wed Feb 1 – earnings before the open: ADP, ANTM, MO, MTH, Roche, Siemens • Wed Feb 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, CBL, CDNS, CRUS, DOX, LNC, LSTR, MAA, MET, TSCO • Thurs Feb 2 – ECB economic bulletin. 4amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – BOE policy decision. 7amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – US non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for Q4. 8:30amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – European trading updates: Aberdeen Asset Mgmt., CME, Daimler, Deutsche Bank, EL, IP, MMC, MRK, Nokia, PH, R, Vodafone, WFT, XYL • Thurs Feb 2 – earnings after the close: AIV, CCK, CMG, DATA, FEYE, GGP, GPRO, HIG, KIM, VR • Fri Feb 3 – China mainland markets re-open after being shut for the New Year holiday • Fri Feb 3 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Feb 3 – US jobs report for Jan. 8:30amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US Markit services PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US factory orders for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US durable goods for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – earnings before the open: APO, ATHN, CLX, HSY, PSX, WY • Mon Feb 6 – earnings before the open: AINV, CBOE, HAS • Mon Feb 6 – earnings after the close: MAC • Tues Feb 7 – China Caixin services PMI (Mon night/Tues morning). • Tues Feb 7 – US trade balance for Dec. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 7 – US JOLTs report for Dec. 10amET. • Tues Feb 7 – US consumer credit for Dec. 3pmET. • Wed Feb 8 – ECB’s Draghi speaks in Dutch parliament • Wed Feb 8 – earnings after the close: PRU • Thurs Feb 9 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 10 – US import price index for Jan. 8:30amET. • Fri Feb 10 – US Michigan Confidence for Feb. 10amET. • Tues Feb 14 – US PPI for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Feb. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US CPI for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US retail sales for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US industrial production for Jan. 9:15amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US NAHB housing market index for Feb. 10amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – ECB meeting minutes • Thurs Feb 16 – US housing starts/building permits for Jan. 8:30amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – US Philadelphia Fed for Feb. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 21 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Wed Feb 22 – US existing home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Wed Feb 22 – FOMC minutes from 2/1 meeting. 2pmET. • Thurs Feb 23 – US home price purchase index for Q4. 9amET. • Thurs Feb 23 – US flash services PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Fri Feb 24 – US new home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Feb 24 – US Michigan sentiment for Feb. 10amET.
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